Okri wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:23 pm
Given that Giamatti has lost out for prime Payne before and the category seems stacked, I'm surprised at the level of confidence people have.
Sideways was 19 years ago.
Giamatti is considered overdue. Both The Holdovers and American Fiction are crowd pleasers featuring actors who are considered overdue. Sort of like Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser last year. Not sure whether Cillian Murphy also fits into that narrative but Oppenheimer is not going t go home emptyhanded so that may be enough in Oscar voters' minds.
Okri wrote
Given that Giamatti has lost out for prime Payne before and the category seems stacked, I'm surprised at the level of confidence people have.
It's so early in the race, at this point I think they're all vulnerable save for Cillian Murphy. He's in for sure.
Yesterday I would have said Giamatti. Today, I'm not so sure. Either he or Wright could win, or they could syphon votes away from one another. If Wright wins, all he would need is a Grammy to become an EGOT winner.
I can see American Fiction knocking The Color Purple out of Best Picture predictions and Zone of Interest out of Adapted Screenplay but who will Jeffrey Wright knock out of the already stacked Best Actor predictions?
Colman Domingo may be the most vulnerable considering Rustin currently has a 68 score on Metacritic vs. 89 for Killers of the Flower Moon, 88 for Oppenheimer, 83 for American Fiction, 82 for Holdovers, and 80 for Maestro.
So, Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Wright?
Mister Tee wrote
Latest news, however: The Toronto Audience Award went to American Fiction, followed by The Holdovers and Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron.
American Fiction seems to be indeed the new sleeper candidate -- a coup for Toronto, which has been largely upstaged by Venice/Telluride in recent years. And Jeffrey Wright, who's long overdue for recognition, could find his way into the lead actor race.
Only one film since 2008 got TIFF People's Choice and failed to get a Best Picture nomination. That's 2011's Where Do We Go Now? which I've never heard of. TIFF's top prize has only called two winners in the last ten years but I think it makes sense to include it safely enough in Best Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay (which is an incredibly packed category this year). Maybe American Fiction becomes the critic's script du jour for prizes. It certainly appears writerly enough.
I'm back from my travels, but have been under the weather since. Don't yet have the energy for a summary piece.
Latest news, however: The Toronto Audience Award went to American Fiction, followed by The Holdovers and Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron.
American Fiction seems to be indeed the new sleeper candidate -- a coup for Toronto, which has been largely upstaged by Venice/Telluride in recent years. And Jeffrey Wright, who's long overdue for recognition, could find his way into the lead actor race.
Joker and A Star is Born both did Venice (and TIFF) but they both also opened soon after those festivals. Warner historically opens their Oscar hopefuls in early Fall and then reserves December for "entertainments" although they have had Oscar contenders released in December, obviously. (Both of their December 2019 releases were Oscar hopefuls.) The Color Purple is not a film I would've expected them to take to a festival.
How often does Warner Bros. really screen movies at festivals? They seem to be a go big or go home kind of studio, like Disney. I wonder if they haven't sent it festival bound because of that. Barbie didn't and look how well it did. Who knows, though. The issue I've always had being solid on Color Purple is that it's directed by a neophyte, which is seldom the best course for a major blockbuster musical.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
The thing with The Colour Purple is that it's always been a relative blockbuster. The book won the Pulitzer, the 1985 movie nearly grossed 100 million at the time and was the 4th biggest hit of the year, the production of the stage musical earned back it's capitalization (costs), and the revival hit Broadway less than a decade after the original production closed. I suspect it will do quite well at the box office. I don't think it'll do that well critically, though. If forced to choose, I'd predict something for Barrino and Brooks, but not much else.
The Color Purple has test screened four or five times, which might be an indication that someone thought that there was something not working in that movie.
There is reason to be skeptical of The Color Purple. I disliked Spielberg’s movie for missing the tone and simplicity of the book. The source material does NOT seem conducive to making a musical. I have not seen the musical on stage nor heard the cast recording, but even that received far from a glorious reception. This new film’s trailer, while looking like it has solid production values, makes it look similar in tone and look to the Spielberg film. Yep, skeptical.
There have only been a couple of good movie musicals in the last couple of decades, and no great ones (though Hedwig and the Angry Inch verges on great). We get our hopes up for films like Les Miz or Dreamgirls, only to be disappointed. It would be foolish to get our hopes up again. I will be happy to be surprised, however. That would put the feather in the cap of this being a terrific film year.
mlrg wrote
It really looks like a pedigree year. Question mark is what is the movie that qualifies this year as the highly anticipated sight unseen that turns out to be a stinker. Apparently the Kate Winslet movie will not be the vehicle to another Oscar nomination that many were predicting. Could it be The Color Purple?
Lee never seemed like a good bet to me. It's spent years in development. There have been at least four prominent screenwriters on board which usually means there isn't enough at the core but nobody is willing to admit it.
The stinker could be Napoleon. I wondered if Ridley Scott mentioning some four hour cut that he's very proud of was a trial balloon for that. I don't know if The Color Purple will end up being a stinker but I just have this gut feeling that it won't be that great. The trailer was my first encounter with this musical in any form so what do I know? I just see a $100m price tag and the fact that it hasn't screened anywhere yet. I feel like when studios feel like they have something special in a musical, they try to drum up some excitement by putting something out there. Nothing in the trailer looks that good to me.
It really looks like a pedigree year. Question mark is what is the movie that qualifies this year as the highly anticipated sight unseen that turns out to be a stinker. Apparently the Kate Winslet movie will not be the vehicle to another Oscar nomination that many were predicting. Could it be The Color Purple?
