My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

[Sabin]

Look, I know what I'm about to post. I'm not proud of it...

This is what Jeffrey Wells said about Don't Look Up.

A for vision, A for speaking comic truth, A for Leonardo DiCaprio’s explosive acting in two temper-tantrum scenes and….uhm, somewhere between a B-minus and a C-plus for execution.

Very ballsy and bold Strangelove-like satire that feels like an extended, gargantuan, improv-y, effects-laden SNL super-skit about massive self-delusion & self-destruction, and yet oddly inert in certain portions. But not entirely.

Because at the same time it’s really out there and righteously wackazoid, and it works now and then.

A crazy-ass Covid and climate-change comic allegory, for sure. It says the right things, totally eviscerates the right and especially the dumbfuck denialists.

It hits the mark a few times, and as broad apocalyptic satires go, you certainly can’t say it doesn’t swing for the fences. Leo really nails it in two screaming scenes (as noted), and it ends with a kind of hand-holding family whimper scene that I responded to.

I can’t in all good conscience say it’s “Casey at the Bat” because it’s really, REALLY saying the right & necessary things, and I loved it for that. But it felt strangely off in a way that I found head-scratchy. But (yes, I’m repeating myself) I loved what it was saying. Call it a ground-rule double with issues.

[mlrg]

Director
Kenneth Branagh “Belfast”
Paul Thomas Anderson “Licorice Pizza”
Guillermo del Toro “Nightmare Alley”
Jane Campion “The Power of the Dog”

No fifth nominee?

Fixed. Thanks

[Big Magilla]

Director
Kenneth Branagh “Belfast”
Paul Thomas Anderson “Licorice Pizza”
Guillermo del Toro “Nightmare Alley”
Jane Campion “The Power of the Dog”

No fifth nominee?

[mlrg]

Well, time to post my annual pre precursors final predictions:

Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Macbeth
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Director
Kenneth Branagh “Belfast”
Adam McKay “Don’t Look Up”
Paul Thomas Anderson “Licorice Pizza”
Guillermo del Toro “Nightmare Alley”
Jane Campion “The Power of the Dog”

Actor
Leonardo di Caprio “Don’t Look Up”
Bradley Cooper “Nightmare Alley”
Benedict Cumberbatch “The Power of the Dog”
Will Smith “King Richard”
Denzel Washington “Macbeth”

Actress
Olivia Colman “The Lost Daughter”
Alana Haim “Licorice Pizza”
Nicole Kidman “Being the Ricardos”
Frances McDormand “Macbeth”
Kristen Stewart “Spencer”

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe “Nightmare Alley”
Jamie Dornan “Belfast”
Ciaran Hinds “Belfast”
Jared Leto “House of Gucci”
Kodi Smit-McPhee “The Power of the Dog”

Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe “Belfast”
Judi Dench “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst “The Power of the Dog”
Ruth Negga “Passing”
Meryl Streep “Don’t Look Up”

[Reza]

My critic buddy has just informed me that yes, Nicole Kidman is just excellent in Being the Ricardos. He's a bit tired of Sorkin and did not care for The Trial of the Chicago 7 but he found the film generally entertaining. It's a bit overwritten, the framing device isn't great, the directing is reliably unexceptional (the film is better but worse directed), but the behind the scenes are quite engrossing.

He said it's basically TV but it's entertaining.

Apparently J. K. Simmons as Bill Frawley is equally good in the film.

[Sabin]

My critic buddy has just informed me that yes, Nicole Kidman is just excellent in Being the Ricardos. He's a bit tired of Sorkin and did not care for The Trial of the Chicago 7 but he found the film generally entertaining. It's a bit overwritten, the framing device isn't great, the directing is reliably unexceptional (the film is better but worse directed), but the behind the scenes are quite engrossing.

He said it's basically TV but it's entertaining.

[Reza]

I agree with Mister Tee about West Side Story. It looks like a scene-by-scene remake. No need for it to exist let alone show up on the Oscar list.

And I continue to be amused by the inclusion of Dune as a best film nominee. Ok to get all the lower tier nods. Anyway we shall see the outcome.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
So, thanks for going to the trouble of a deep dive, enabling those of us in the peanut gallery to take pot-shots:

Be my guest.

Mister Tee wrote
I know you're going by your own reaction -- and, who knows, I my end up fully agreeing with it -- but you do realize you're way in your own corner on Licorice Pizza? This is a movie with a 95 on Metacritic -- highest of any movie so far this year -- which suggests critics' awards and picture/director/screenplay with ease, with actress/editing more likely than not.

These are the first reviews. I have no doubt that Licorice Pizza might end up getting a few Golden Globe nominations and some critic's awards, but it's a weird one and not a particularly satisfying one. I'm happy to admit if/when I'm wrong.

Mister Tee wrote
I don't quite get pushing McDormand into a highly competitive actress field, but leaving out Denzel from a less-stacked slate of actors.

You're probably right. If Washington can get nominated for Roman J. Israel, Esq. he can probably get nominated for this. I just wonder if some are overestimated the Coen Bros. chances. Voters tend to like their more mainstream efforts. He deserves to be slotted back in over Driver.

Mister Tee wrote
I'll need to see at least respectable reviews -- and truly potent box-office -- for House of Gucci before I buy the push it seems to be getting from bloggers. It seems like, ever since Bohemian Rhapsody, people have been hunting for the crappy-movie-audiences-for-some-reason-like, but I wonder if that was a one-off from a sub-par year rather than precedent.

Fair. It's the selection I'm least confident about. My friend is a film critic who (not a blogger) and he described it as very entertaining but he found it hard to believe that it would make its money back. He said that Lady Gaga should be considered possible for a nomination but she's going to have detractors that it's not a serious enough turn.

Mister Tee wrote
If you're going to have both Kidman and Bardem make the grade for Being the Ricardos, I don't see how you omit Sorkin in screenplay. I know: Steve Jobs -- but that was a massively competitive category (the screenplay split that year was the polar opposite of 2017, with all the heat on the adapted side). Also, from what I've been hearing, J.K. Simmons and especially Nina Arianda shouldn't be overlooked in support.

Sure. Maybe. Didn't have a strong reason why not.

Mister Tee wrote
Our instincts on how the late-screeners will break is pretty much reversed -- I have little faith in West Side Story (nothing in the trailer suggests it's a whit different from the perfectly good original, raising the question Why?), but have heard surprisingly positive word on Don't Look Up, and have more faith that DelToro will make something fresh out of Nightmare Alley, even if not to best picture level.

1. What positive word have you heard about Don't Look Up?
2. That's basically my take on Del Toro and Nightmare Alley.
3. Over the last ten years, more than half of Steven Spielberg's films have made the cut. They like him. But we'll see. I'd certainly prefer something like Don't Look Up turning into the late in the game juggernaut as opposed to a remake of a Best Picture winner.

Mister Tee wrote
For what it's worth, Billie Eilish's No Time to Die song won at the Hollywood Music Awards last night, and seems at least a near-certain nominee, unless people punish it for Writing's On the Wall's win.

Oh gosh! I thought I included it. I'll probably slot it in for... Belfast, I guess?

[Mister Tee]

So, thanks for going to the trouble of a deep dive, enabling those of us in the peanut gallery to take pot-shots:

I know you're going by your own reaction -- and, who knows, I my end up fully agreeing with it -- but you do realize you're way in your own corner on Licorice Pizza? This is a movie with a 95 on Metacritic -- highest of any movie so far this year -- which suggests critics' awards and picture/director/screenplay with ease, with actress/editing more likely than not.

I don't quite get pushing McDormand into a highly competitive actress field, but leaving out Denzel from a less-stacked slate of actors.

I'll need to see at least respectable reviews -- and truly potent box-office -- for House of Gucci before I buy the push it seems to be getting from bloggers. It seems like, ever since Bohemian Rhapsody, people have been hunting for the crappy-movie-audiences-for-some-reason-like, but I wonder if that was a one-off from a sub-par year rather than precedent.

If you're going to have both Kidman and Bardem make the grade for Being the Ricardos, I don't see how you omit Sorkin in screenplay. I know: Steve Jobs -- but that was a massively competitive category (the screenplay split that year was the polar opposite of 2017, with all the heat on the adapted side). Also, from what I've been hearing, J.K. Simmons and especially Nina Arianda shouldn't be overlooked in support.

Our instincts on how the late-screeners will break is pretty much reversed -- I have little faith in West Side Story (nothing in the trailer suggests it's a whit different from the perfectly good original, raising the question Why?), but have heard surprisingly positive word on Don't Look Up, and have more faith that DelToro will make something fresh out of Nightmare Alley, even if not to best picture level.

For what it's worth, Billie Eilish's No Time to Die song won at the Hollywood Music Awards last night, and seems at least a near-certain nominee, unless people punish it for Writing's On the Wall's win.

[flipp525]

Where is Passing? Ruth Negga will be nominated (at a minimum) and it will be Dunst v. Negga with Ellis spoiler.

[Sabin]

FilmFan720 wrote
Remember, there are a guaranteed 10 Best Picture nominees this year.

I did not remember that.

[FilmFan720]

Remember, there are a guaranteed 10 Best Picture nominees this year.

[Sabin]

I think I've seen enough at this point...
NOTE: no, I haven't! My friend just watched House of Gucci and said it's fairly successful. He enjoyed it quite a bit. He's not convinced that for its high budget that it will end up being a hit but there's a lot to like in it, and that Jared Leto is hilarious.

flipp525 wrote
Where is Passing? Ruth Negga will be nominated (at a minimum) and it will be Dunst v. Negga with Ellis spoiler.]

Okay.

NOTE: updated 11/19


BEST PICTURE
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune

BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitrione Belfast, Belfast
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kristen Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
House of Gucci
The Lost Daughter
Passing
The Power of the Dog

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don't Look Up
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Belfast / “Down to Joy”
Cyrano / “Every Letter”
Don't Look Up / "Just Look Up"
Encanto / “Columbia, Mi Encanto”
No Time to Die / "No Time to Die"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST FILM EDITING
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Spencer
West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley

BEST SOUND
Dune
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Matrix: Resurrections
Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
The Suicide Squad

12: The Power of the Dog
10: Belfast, Dune
7: House of Gucci
6: West Side Story
5: Don’t Look Up
4: King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer
3: The Lost Daughter

[rolotomasi99]

HOUSE OF GUCCI should be nominated for its make-up for Leto's transformation alone. Other than that, I think this is a single nom Ridley film like ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD.

[danfrank]

The trailer gives the impression that House of Gucci has the potential to be a camp classic. In other words, not an Oscar movie (except maybe Gaga) but potentially great fun, intentional or otherwise.