Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Observation: it's not that common for SAG Ensemble/PGA/DGA to all go to different films, and in the years where they have split like that, generally one of them has also won the Drama Globe (Gladiator 2000, A Beautiful Mind 2001, The Aviator 2004, 12 Years a Slave in in 2013,The Revenant in 2015), not the case this year.

And we have a chance to add another film to the mix, if The Favourite wins BAFTA. The acting awards may fall into place (pending BAFTA), but best film is wildly up in the air.

Just to clarify: yes, Burnham beating out was a major shock, and tells us something about the overall gestalt. (And makes one wonder if Bradley Cooper did one of those "three wishes I'll grant you, great wishes or small, but make a fourth wish and you lose them all" deals with a leprechaun. Yes: a Darby O'Gill reference.) In fact, there were so many surprises tonight, I had real trepidation going into the big category.

The Original BJ wrote:

Mister Tee wrote:So, the only way tonight could matter is if Alfonso Cuaron doesn't win, right?

Well, Bradley Cooper losing the First-Time Feature prize to Bo Burnham probably qualifies as something that matters, I'd say.

Yes, except no.

Cuaron wins the big one.

Cooper losing was a shocker -- and, as Sabin says, further evidence that A Star is Born has turned into a pumpkin before our eyes. But Cooper was already an impossibility at AMPAS, so it doesn't matter for that.

ON EDIT: Three Identical Strangers winning for doc, similarly a big surprise, the way the season's gone. But meaningless in Oscar terms.

So, now Cuaron tries to have Roma become the first non-English-speaking film to win best director from AMPAS -- a goal at which Ang Lee failed.

Mister Tee wrote:So, the only way tonight could matter is if Alfonso Cuaron doesn't win, right?

Well, Bradley Cooper losing the First-Time Feature prize to Bo Burnham probably qualifies as something that matters, I'd say.

Best First Feature: Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade

I have NEVER seen a movie fade like A Star is Born.

So, the only way tonight could matter is if Alfonso Cuaron doesn't win, right?

I had a feeling I should've changed my prediction to include Adam McKay. He's now up for a TV DGA award and Feature Film DGA award at the same time. Can't say whether he deserves his spot, though, as I haven't seen "Vice" yet.

Sabin wrote:I love the Farrelly Bros. I just think Green Book is weak by their/his standards.

There's Something Away Mary is brilliant - the Farrelly Brothers changed American comedy with that film and it utter raunchiness but nothing since has matched Mary's inner sweetness, except for perhaps Superbad. I also think The Three Stooges was vastly underrated and Hall Pass has some very funny moments. The Farrelly are certainly less indulgent than Judd Apatow who needs most of his films to be trimmed down.

Another interesting trend of American cinema is the lack of comedies around - and the few that do show up look most unappealing. The French and British have also lost their way and are largely churning out unwatchable rubbish.

I'm dreading Green Book though.

Phantom Thread didn't open limited until Dec. 25.

I love the Farrelly Bros. I just think Green Book is weak by their/his standards.

MaxWilder wrote:Peter Farrelly is a DGA nominee. I don't recognize this world.

Ditto Adam McKay.

FilmFan720 wrote:Phantom Thread had the disadvantage of the late release date, however. A lot of those snubs were due to not having been seen enough, versus having been seen and not nominated.

I know If Beale Street Could Talk played Toronto/New York, while Phantom Thread skipped the festivals entirely, but Beale Street only opened in theaters (and in limited release at that) on December 14. Obviously a late release isn't always a killer -- Vice opened a week later and seems to be doing just fine -- but it's certainly possible Beale Street was underseen by the Guilds, and Oscar voters might have more time to get to it, which might help it slip into a few more on-the-bubble categories.

The Original BJ wrote:

anonymous1980 wrote:

OscarGuy wrote:I think If Beale Street Could Talk is done for at the Oscars. With PGA, DGA, and ASC all ignoring the film over work that was easily inferior, I have no hope that If Beale Street overcomes all this.

I don't know about that. Just last year, Phantom Thread proved it's possible to overcome it.

I rate Beale Street as the most likely candidate to fill the near-annual spot of Oscar Best Picture nominee that didn't make the PGA list, and it's worth noting that its 3 Globe nominations (and WGA nom) give it more of a precursor foundation than Phantom Thread, Amour, or The Tree of Life had, and about equal to Room's. (Worth noting that all 4 of those movies got not only Picture, but the much tougher Director spot as well.) Of course, Beale Street could also be another Carol, another movie that started the season strong but whose Guild exclusions proved prophetic.

And I find it a bit reductive to suggest that the "minority vote" is already allotted for, ergo Beale Street is finished, as if only people of color would be enthusiastic about voting for the movie.

Phantom Thread had the disadvantage of the late release date, however. A lot of those snubs were due to not having been seen enough, versus having been seen and not nominated.

I keep track every year of how many films are cited by the "industry" awards: the guilds (PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, ASC, ACE, ADG, CDG), BAFTA Best Film, AFI Top 10, as well as the HFPA Best Film categories (if only because they are so public an entity that they influence voters thoughts). Since the expansion, the magic number seems to be 6. If they can get 6/11 citations, a Best Picture nomination tends to be guaranteed. Only 4 films haven't (Carol, Moonrise Kingdom, Bridesmaids, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).

Beale Street now has been cited for 3: The HFPA, WGA, and AFI. It's missed PGA, DGA, SAG, ASC, and ADG. Only BAFTA and the CDG has yet to nominate, so it's total can only be 5.

In contrast, Carol had 6, Tree of Life and Room only had 2, Amour had 0 (1 if you count the GG Foreign Film nod). So films with less have certainly come back for a nomination (Extremely Loud had 1 and the mysterious Blindside had 0!), but it is an uphill climb for sure. Darkest Hour only had 3 last year, and Phantom Thread 1!

Peter Farrelly is a DGA nominee. I don't recognize this world.

anonymous1980 wrote:

OscarGuy wrote:I think If Beale Street Could Talk is done for at the Oscars. With PGA, DGA, and ASC all ignoring the film over work that was easily inferior, I have no hope that If Beale Street overcomes all this.

I don't know about that. Just last year, Phantom Thread proved it's possible to overcome it.

I rate Beale Street as the most likely candidate to fill the near-annual spot of Oscar Best Picture nominee that didn't make the PGA list, and it's worth noting that its 3 Globe nominations (and WGA nom) give it more of a precursor foundation than Phantom Thread, Amour, or The Tree of Life had, and about equal to Room's. (Worth noting that all 4 of those movies got not only Picture, but the much tougher Director spot as well.) Of course, Beale Street could also be another Carol, another movie that started the season strong but whose Guild exclusions proved prophetic.

And I find it a bit reductive to suggest that the "minority vote" is already allotted for, ergo Beale Street is finished, as if only people of color would be enthusiastic about voting for the movie.