Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End
Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:01 pm
Are you certain that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is a "sure bet"? It got shut out of SAG's and the Globes.It has huge and vocal detractors. I would personally wait until BAFTA. If it doesn't show up there, it's dead. I guess it's possible for a last-minute rally but on top of all that, it's already competing with the Important Manipulative Sentimental film vote with The Help and War Horse. And when was the last time a film got COMPLETELY shut out of the Globes yet somehow made it to Best Picture?
Speaking of The Help, don't you guys think with the new voting system, there is a possibility it might get left off? I mean, I know a lot of people really like The Help and it's gonna show up on a lot of ballots, for sure but how many of them are passionate enough about it that they would rank it as #1? Are there enough conservative Academy members with rather milquetoast taste that would push it to a nomination? Especially now since War Horse and Extremely Loud are also courting for their votes.
It's also puzzling why you would rank Bridesmaids as a "maybe" yet not even list Melissa McCarthy, arguably that film's best bet for an Oscar nomination, in the Supporting Actress race (where you list Amy freakin' Ryan for Win Win who has only recently showed up in a relatively minor critics precursor).
You should also explain why you're so down on the chances of Midnight in Paris. Woody Allen is an Oscar favorite and this is his biggest critical AND commercial hit in years. I think it's a strong contender for Best Picture and Best Director. And what does being in LA have to do with anything? Woody's won 3 times and has been nominated a whole bunch of times. So I'm puzzled.
Speaking of The Help, don't you guys think with the new voting system, there is a possibility it might get left off? I mean, I know a lot of people really like The Help and it's gonna show up on a lot of ballots, for sure but how many of them are passionate enough about it that they would rank it as #1? Are there enough conservative Academy members with rather milquetoast taste that would push it to a nomination? Especially now since War Horse and Extremely Loud are also courting for their votes.
It's also puzzling why you would rank Bridesmaids as a "maybe" yet not even list Melissa McCarthy, arguably that film's best bet for an Oscar nomination, in the Supporting Actress race (where you list Amy freakin' Ryan for Win Win who has only recently showed up in a relatively minor critics precursor).
You should also explain why you're so down on the chances of Midnight in Paris. Woody Allen is an Oscar favorite and this is his biggest critical AND commercial hit in years. I think it's a strong contender for Best Picture and Best Director. And what does being in LA have to do with anything? Woody's won 3 times and has been nominated a whole bunch of times. So I'm puzzled.