NBR Winners

[cam]

Thanks for this, anonymous!

[anonymous1980]

Some stats from the last 10 years:

Best Picture:
2006: Letters From Iwo Jima
2005: Good Night, and Good Luck.
2004: Finding Neverland
2003: Mystic River
2002: The Hours
2001: Moulin Rouge!
2000: Quills*
1999: American Beauty
1998: Gods and Monsters*
1997: L.A. Confidential
1996: Shine


Best Director:
2006: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
2005: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
2004: Michael Mann, Collateral*
2003: Ed Zwick, The Last Samurai*
2002: Philip Noyce, The Quiet American and Rabbit-Proof Fence*
2001: Todd Field, In the Bedroom*
2000: Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich and Traffic
1999: Anthony Minghella, The Talented Mr. Ripley*
1998: Shekar Kapur, Elizabeth*
1997: Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential
1996: Joel Coen, Fargo


Best Lead Actor:
2006: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2004: Jamie Foxx, Ray
2003: Sean Penn, Mystic River and 21 Grams
2002: Campbell Scott, Roger Dodger*
2001: Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There and Monster's Ball*
2000: Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
1999: Russell Crowe, The Insider
1998: Ian McKellan, Gods and Monsters
1997: Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets
1996: Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire


Best Lead Actress:
2006: Helen Mirren, The Queen
2005: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
2004: Annette Bening, Being Julia
2003: Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
2002: Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
2001: Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
2000: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
1999: Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds
1998: Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station
1997: Helena Bonham-Carter, The Wings of the Dove
1996: Frances McDormand, Fargo


Best Supporting Actor:
2006: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
2005: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
2004: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
2003: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
2002: Chris Cooper, Adaptation.
2001: Jim Broadbent, Iris and Moulin Rouge!
2000: Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator, Quills, The Yards
1999: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Magnolia and The Talented Mr. Ripley*
1998: Ed Harris, The Truman Show
1997: Greg Kinnear, As Good As It Gets
1996: Edward Norton, Everyone Says I Love You* (nominated for Primal Fear)


Best Supporting Actress:
2006: Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration*
2005: Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha*
2004: Laura Linney, Kinsey
2003: Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April and The Station Agent
2002: Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
2001: Cate Blanchett, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, The Man Who Cried, The Shipping News*
2000: Lupe Ontiveros, Chuck & Buck*
1999: Julianne Moore, An Ideal Husband, Magnolia, A Map of the World*
1998: Anne Heche, Donnie Brasco and Wag the Dog*
1997: Christina Ricci, Buffallo '66, The Opposite of Sex, Pecker*
1996: Juliette Binoche, The English Patient and Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient


Best Ensemble:
2006: The Departed
2005: Mrs. Henderson Presents
2004: Closer
2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2002: Nicholas Nickleby
2001: Last Orders
2000: State and Main
1999: Magnolia
1998: Happiness
1997: The Sweet Hereafter
1996: The First Wives Club


Best Breakthrough Male Performance:
2006: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
2005: Terrence Howard, Crash, Get Rich or Die Tryin', Hustle & Flow
2004: Topher Grace, In Good Company and P.S.*
2003: Paul Giamatti, American Splendor*
2002: Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher*
2001: Hayden Christensen, Life As a House*
2000: Jamie Bell, Billy Elliott*
1999: Wes Bentley, American Beauty*
1998: Billy Crudup, The Hi-Lo Country*
1997: N/A
1996: N/A


Best Breakthrough Female Performance:
2006: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
2005: Q'Orianka Kilcher, The New World*
2004: Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera*
2003: Charlize Theron, Monster
2002: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary*
2001: Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive*
2000: Michelle Rodriguez, Girlfight*
1999: Hilary Swank, Boys Don't Cry
1998: Angelina Jolie, Playing By Heart*
1997: Bai Ling, Red Corner*
1996: Renée Zellweger, Jerry Maguire*

*=Not Nominated at the Oscars
Bold = Won the Oscar



Edited By anonymous on 1196941486

[flipp525]

Am I the only one who thought that American Gangster was just flat-out boring? I don't see it factoring into the awards season at all. There are easily 7-8 performances I'd nominate before Denzel Washington, too.

[OscarGuy]

Magilla, I've thought for some time that American Gangster is fading fast. No placement in the Top 10 here with a group that surely would have hailed it would it have thought it would do any good.

[OscarGuy]

we'll see, flipp. $19 M is respectable, but I'm still not sold on it.

Here are some NBR statistics that have not translated well on my website as I'm still moving data from the old site.

Of the Top 10 each year, last year four films went from finalist to Oscar nominee. The previous two years have seen 5 films go from finalist to Oscar nominee. The two years before that 4 each and the 3 before that only 2 each. It's hard to know whether they'll continue this trend, but so far the trend seems to be intact and could provide at least 3 or 4 of the final five.

In the last 10 years, only twice has their winner not gotten a BP nom. So, it looks like No Country's as good as locked.

Only once in the last 10 years has the winner here translated to a Best Picture win, so I'm doubtful No Country will triumph.

All but twice in the last ten, the Oscar winner came from the NBR finalist list, so it's there somewhere.

Those are the Best Pic stats.

Actor:
Twice in 10 years, the winner here hasn't translated to Oscar nominee. Half of the 10 years did the winners match.

Actress:
The last time the NBR winner didn't get an Oscar nom was 1990. Before that, 1981. And the only time they regularly missed was the early 70s. So, I'd say Julie Christie is a lock and I'll say that unequivocally.

Only 3 of the last ten won the Oscar, so they aren't great at winner selection.


Supporting Actor:
This category is nearly as good as the last few times the winner didn't get an Oscar nom were 1999, 1991, 1989 and 1986.

Once in the last 10 have they picked this category.

Supporting Actress:
They are certainly uneven but have gotten better in recent years. In the last 5, they've matched twice, last 10 four times and the last 20 eleven times. Ryan's chances aren't good, but it's possible.

As for winners, there's virtually no chance. three times in twenty years have they matched. One of those was exactly 20 years ago and the other two were 1995 and 1996.

Director:
Twice in 5 years, 3 in 10, 11 in 20...so, they've been very sporadic here in terms of choosing a future Oscar nominee.

Four times in the last 20 have they matched Oscar, last year, 2005, 1990 and 1991.

Original Screenplay and Adapted Screeenplay:
Both categories are new for this group.
Original: 3 in 4 picks matched. Stranger Than Fiction was the odd man out.
Adapted: 1 in 4 with Eternal Sunshine the victor here.
I don't see No Country missing out. I can see Juno getting nominated, but I'm doubtful Lars and the Real Girl is going to place.

Only once each of the four times has the winner won the Oscar.

I'm not posting stats for the other categories because it's generally time consuming and this is their first year with Animated Film, so that leaves foreign and docu that i'm leaving out.

[Big Magilla]

Not necessarily. In 1996 they went for Shine instead of The English Patient, which came in second. It does bode well for No Country, though, this year's Fargo which placed thrid on the 1996 list. However, the snubbing of Atonement by the Satellites and There Will Be Blood by both the Satellites and the NBR does seem to signal trouble ahead for both those films. Could be the pre-cursors as well as the Academy are sick and tired of the bloggers telling them what to vote for and will go in a diffferent direction just because they can.

The thing about the Academy, though, is that they like to make amends in their way for previous snubs. Hellbent music lovers, still hurting over the snub of Dreamgirls last year, could go all out for Sweeney Todd this year. It's a wide open race and that's a good thing.

There are differences. In 1996, the NBR also gave The English Patient its Supporting Actress prize - a category which, as you pointed out by the way, would have been the perfect place for Atonement to be mentioned. Even more - it would have been a way of honoring the talent of Vanessa Redgrave, one of the greatest living actresses, never a winner in the NBR's history (probably the only major film award she still hasn't got). It hasn't happened, and it means something.

But even more importantly, The English Patient was beaten back then by Shine, another traditional - though more intimate - piece of cinema. This time they have gone for a kind of movie which, at least on paper, would have been completely wrong for such a conservative, not-very-daring group. Now, this can of course mean that this time the Coens haven't been as extreme and provoking as they used to be (I haven't seen the movie yet). But it also means that it will have good chances at the Oscars, and if it loses (which of course could happen), it won't be to Atonement.

True - There Will Be Blood is in trouble (which, by the way, makes the Best Actor race more interesting). But like last year - when right after the NBR I declared that Dreamgirls was already a dead movie (and I was massacred by everyone here, as always when I'm right) - now I am certain that while Atonement will probably still be nominated for Best Picture (Best Director now seems less and less probable), it won't win. Definitely not. This was the place where it should have triumphed, and, quite simply, it hasn't.

As for "music lovers", if they have some taste they know perfectly well that Dreamgirls was rightly snubbed by the Academy last year. It's time to say once for all that only on this board that movie's failure to even be nominated for Best Picture is considered to be a major crime against humanity. If Sweeney Todd or - as I think it's even more possible: he's considered to be kind of overdue - Tim Burton are nominated, it will be because they are probably more deserving (and honestly, though I'm generally not very interested in musicals, the prospect of seeing one directed by Burton is, how shall I put it without being assaulted again, more appealing than seeing one by a certain other director).

All four winning performers could get nominated at the Oscars. Three of them will certainly be; the only question mark is, of course, George Clooney, but Michael Clayton seems to be more loved than I thought. I still have strong doubts, but he could get in.

These are all good points, but they don't nullify mine. Put the music lovers together with the Tim Burton lovers and the blood lust lovers who won't seem to have There Will Be Blood to oot for and you have a powerful alternative to No country for Old Men in Sweeney Todd. On the other hand, No Country and Sweeny could cancel each other out and the prize could still fall to Atonement.

The open question may be what will get the fourth and fifth slots? Will they go big and bland with Michael Clayton and American Gangster or small and heartfelt with Into the Wild and Aweay From Her or some combination thereof?

[Big Magilla]

Changing gears, I think the one who's in the most trouble is Cate Blanchett. "The performance of the year" they're calling it on those other boards which I only take a peripheral glance at now and then, but enough to be sick of her and her film without even seeign it. She loses to Amy Ryan.

The NBR, which is too easily accused of star baiting, had nothing to gain by giving an award to Ryan. They already guaranteed that Ben Affleck will show up by giving him the new director award and his brother the supporting actor award. Maybe they were really hoping to lure Matt Damon by inclujding his film (The Bourne Ultimatum) as well as giving awards to his buddies, Ben and Casey and George, eh?

[ITALIANO]

I hesitate greatly to make any type of sweeping statement based on one group's awards (a la Atonement/There Will Be Blood are DEAD!) Did those films take big strides today? No. But there's an entire season left to go, and the films that have yet to open are (as always) still the biggest question marks. Anyone who can claim to KNOW how well Atonement or There Will Be Blood will be received must have a lot better crystal ball than I do.

Italiano: you get a cookie for knowing that Dreamgirls would be snubbed by the Academy. A cookie! What kind would you like? I will bake it personally for you.

Original BJ, I deserve more than just one cookie than, with all the correct predictions I've done in these years (starting with Roberto Benigni, of course!).

But at least be honest and if you must criticize me - which is allowed of course - don't do it American-style, ok? I never said that Atonement/There Will Be Blood are dead. I said that There Will Be Blood is in trouble, and that Atonement won't win Best Picture. This is one of the reasons why we are here: to make predictions. And by the way I think I've also explained the reasons why, in this moment, I've made mine. I may be wrong, I may even change my mind if the next precursors lead me to do it - but this is part of the game, and I like to gamble. One doesn't need a crystal ball to do it - just balls.

[flipp525]

Everyone's saying Amy Ryan's gonna get a nod, but I don't think she's anywhere near a lock. Matter of fact, i don't think there's a single lock in the supporting actress category...at least until Blanchett picks up a supporting trophy, quashing her placement as lead.

I have to disagree with you here. I think Amy Ryan is not only going to be nominated, but could be the winner this year. It's a fantastic performance in a film that received great notices that tons of people have seen. Mix topicality and versatile acting chops with a love-to-hate type character and you have yourself a bonafide contender. I'm not sure why people are still doubting her chances.



Edited By flipp525 on 1196904908

[OscarGuy]

I'm not so sure it's Clooney who's at risk. I think he's got the right blend of cachet and career high performances to merit inclusion. I think, as usual, the supporting actress category may be their weakest. Everyone's saying Amy Ryan's gonna get a nod, but I don't think she's anywhere near a lock. Matter of fact, i don't think there's a single lock in the supporting actress category...at least until Blanchett picks up a supporting trophy, quashing her placement as lead.

[Damien]

I just realized there was no love at all for Sidney Lumox's latest abomination. He'll still get an Oscar nomination though, I fear.

[The Original BJ]

I hesitate greatly to make any type of sweeping statement based on one group's awards (a la Atonement/There Will Be Blood are DEAD!) Did those films take big strides today? No. But there's an entire season left to go, and the films that have yet to open are (as always) still the biggest question marks. Anyone who can claim to KNOW how well Atonement or There Will Be Blood will be received must have a lot better crystal ball than I do.

Italiano: you get a cookie for knowing that Dreamgirls would be snubbed by the Academy. A cookie! What kind would you like? I will bake it personally for you.

[ITALIANO]

Not necessarily. In 1996 they went for Shine instead of The English Patient, which came in second. It does bode well for No Country, though, this year's Fargo which placed thrid on the 1996 list. However, the snubbing of Atonement by the Satellites and There Will Be Blood by both the Satellites and the NBR does seem to signal trouble ahead for both those films. Could be the pre-cursors as well as the Academy are sick and tired of the bloggers telling them what to vote for and will go in a diffferent direction just because they can.

The thing about the Academy, though, is that they like to make amends in their way for previous snubs. Hellbent music lovers, still hurting over the snub of Dreamgirls last year, could go all out for Sweeney Todd this year. It's a wide open race and that's a good thing.

There are differences. In 1996, the NBR also gave The English Patient its Supporting Actress prize - a category which, as you pointed out by the way, would have been the perfect place for Atonement to be mentioned. Even more - it would have been a way of honoring the talent of Vanessa Redgrave, one of the greatest living actresses, never a winner in the NBR's history (probably the only major film award she still hasn't got). It hasn't happened, and it means something.

But even more importantly, The English Patient was beaten back then by Shine, another traditional - though more intimate - piece of cinema. This time they have gone for a kind of movie which, at least on paper, would have been completely wrong for such a conservative, not-very-daring group. Now, this can of course mean that this time the Coens haven't been as extreme and provoking as they used to be (I haven't seen the movie yet). But it also means that it will have good chances at the Oscars, and if it loses (which of course could happen), it won't be to Atonement.

True - There Will Be Blood is in trouble (which, by the way, makes the Best Actor race more interesting). But like last year - when right after the NBR I declared that Dreamgirls was already a dead movie (and I was massacred by everyone here, as always when I'm right) - now I am certain that while Atonement will probably still be nominated for Best Picture (Best Director now seems less and less probable), it won't win. Definitely not. This was the place where it should have triumphed, and, quite simply, it hasn't.

As for "music lovers", if they have some taste they know perfectly well that Dreamgirls was rightly snubbed by the Academy last year. It's time to say once for all that only on this board that movie's failure to even be nominated for Best Picture is considered to be a major crime against humanity. If Sweeney Todd or - as I think it's even more possible: he's considered to be kind of overdue - Tim Burton are nominated, it will be because they are probably more deserving (and honestly, though I'm generally not very interested in musicals, the prospect of seeing one directed by Burton is, how shall I put it without being assaulted again, more appealing than seeing one by a certain other director).

All four winning performers could get nominated at the Oscars. Three of them will certainly be; the only question mark is, of course, George Clooney, but Michael Clayton seems to be more loved than I thought. I still have strong doubts, but he could get in.



Edited By ITALIANO on 1196902507

[Damien]

Anyone who's been saying that Daniel Day-Lewis holds some kind of Mirren-esque lock on the Best Actor category this year is either a TWBB partisan who knows it's no easy sell, and is trying to bully readers into believing the film is a major player, or else someone who doesn't realize how these things work.

I don't waste my time reading any other Oscar boards, but if people on those sites have been touting Day-Lewis, then they must simply be Paul Thomas Anderson fanboys -- there are few lower life forms.



Edited By Damien on 1196912095

[rain Bard]

THERE WILL BE BLOOD has been screened plenty by now, I'd wager. If I was able to see it almost a month ago at a public screening, surely it's hit all the spots where NBR members live by now.

Whether they've seen it or not, I'm not surprised it wasn't mentioned. It doesn't seem like their cup of Texas tea.

Anyone who's been saying that Daniel Day-Lewis holds some kind of Mirren-esque lock on the Best Actor category this year is either a TWBB partisan who knows it's no easy sell, and is trying to bully readers into believing the film is a major player, or else someone who doesn't realize how these things work. It's a terrific performance, but in a very prickly film. I still think he'll get nominated but I've always been skeptical of any wins for this film.