Directors Guild Predictions
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
So, I don't think I've seen it mentioned here, but apparently, Lee Daniels is the first black director nominated by the DGA...
Not Spike Lee. Not John Singleton...Lee Daniels.
Not Spike Lee. Not John Singleton...Lee Daniels.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
-
- Emeritus
- Posts: 3650
- Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
- Location: Illinois
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
Some time in late Summer 2009, I changed the format over to a more blog-like environment. It's faster to post, which makes it easier to comment and such whereas the old way required me to re-edit the html document and re-post it, so it took far more time and thus I was less inclined to update.
Edited By OscarGuy on 1262894833
Edited By OscarGuy on 1262894833
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
- rolotomasi99
- Professor
- Posts: 2108
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
- Location: n/a
- Contact:
OscarGuy wrote:The last decade of non-transitioning directors:
2008: Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
2007: Sean Penn - Into the Wild
2006: Bill Condon - Dreamgirls; Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
2004: Marc Forster - Finding Neverland
2003: Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
2002: Peter Jackson - The Two Towers
2001: Baz Luhrmann - Moulin Rouge; Christopher Nolan - Memento
2000: Cameron Crowe - Almost Famous
1999: Frank Darabont - The Green Mile
Looking at this list I think it is interesting that many people are assuming Lee Daniels is going to be dropped when it seems like James Cameron would be the more likely suspect.
Of the 11 films represented on the above list, 5 did not receive a Best Picture nomination while 6 did.
Of the six films on the list above which were nominated for Best Picture but not director, all of them were more mainstream films which were replaced by a director from a more art house film.
Much like Peter Jackson in 2002, I think the directors are far more likely to drop James Cameron and nominate someone like the Coen brothers or Lone Sherfig. Then again, with ten nominees, precedent means less these days.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1262893469
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19377
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
- Location: Jersey Shore
As did I.Mister Tee wrote:As Colbert would put it -- I CALLED IT!
The expected four, plus Daniels.
http://www.oscarguy.com/2010....nations
-
- Tenured Laureate
- Posts: 8675
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
- Location: NYC
- Contact:
Dropped from what? The DGA list was always more effective in predicting the best picture nominees, not the director slate. (Several of the years Oscar Guy notes below as exceptions DID match up DGA/Academy best picture) All five here are certainly going to be nominated in this year's slate of ten.Zahveed wrote:Who can we expect to be dropped? Daniels?
Daniels is the most likely to be left out of the Academy's directing five. He could be replaced by one of the names bandied about here today -- Eastwood, Blomkamp -- or someone more adventurous (for me, the Coens, but your mileage may vary).
People have been saying that, with the best picture expansion, the best director list would become the de facto old-five, but that ignores the history of the lone director. It's probably safer to assume that these DGA picks are the prime best picture contenders, regardless of what other five lucky-duckies join them on Feb 2.
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
I don't think anyone's really that surprised. Even my prediction of Neill Blomkamp was just speculative and mostly wishful thinking. I can rest assured in the fact that the DGA hasn't transferred 100% to the Oscars but 4 times ever (2005, 1998, 1981 & 1977).
The last decade of non-transitioning directors:
2008: Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
2007: Sean Penn - Into the Wild
2006: Bill Condon - Dreamgirls; Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
2004: Marc Forster - Finding Neverland
2003: Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
2002: Peter Jackson - The Two Towers
2001: Baz Luhrmann - Moulin Rouge; Christopher Nolan - Memento
2000: Cameron Crowe - Almost Famous
1999: Frank Darabont - The Green Mile
Edited By OscarGuy on 1262889019
The last decade of non-transitioning directors:
2008: Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
2007: Sean Penn - Into the Wild
2006: Bill Condon - Dreamgirls; Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
2004: Marc Forster - Finding Neverland
2003: Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
2002: Peter Jackson - The Two Towers
2001: Baz Luhrmann - Moulin Rouge; Christopher Nolan - Memento
2000: Cameron Crowe - Almost Famous
1999: Frank Darabont - The Green Mile
Edited By OscarGuy on 1262889019
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
-
- Tenured Laureate
- Posts: 8675
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
- Location: NYC
- Contact:
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
The DGA, PGA and SAG winners will have no effect on nominations. The polls close on the same day as the SAG Awards which come before both PGA and DGA, so voters won't be able to use the winners as a guide.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
-
- Temp
- Posts: 431
- Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2003 1:07 am
- Location: Kentucky
- Contact:
Yeah, that's what I meant. I'm so used to the awards being announced around 5:30am (8:30am for us Eastern Coasters). Sucks being on the East Coast when your Achilles Heel is controlled on the West Coast. Guess I'll check back later around 1pm (my time).Mister Tee wrote:If that's the case, I apologize for misreading.I think he means taking so long to announce today.
Are the DGA announcing this morning or just at some point today?
Though I will point out, it's not even 9AM in LA. They have no obligation to pander to East Coast conditions.
"You are what you love, not what loves you." - Nicholas Cage; Adaptation