Latest Predictions

dylanfan23
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Post by dylanfan23 »

I"ll take a shot on november 1st.

Picture

Dark Knight
Gran Torino
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionare

Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionare
Stephen Daltry - The Reader
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Christopher Nolan - Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Actor

Josh Brolin - W
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - Wrestler

Actress

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkings - Happy Go Lucky
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Michelle Williams - Wendy and Lucy
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Supporting Actor

James Franco - Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - Dark Knight
Liev Schrieber - Defiance
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Supporting Actress

Penolope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Rosemarie Dewitt - Rachel Getting Married
Taraji Henson - Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomai - Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Adapted Screenplay

Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionare

Original Screenplay

Gran Torino
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wrestler
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rolotomasi99
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Zahveed wrote:That would be great if my original best pic predictions were correct. Wall-E and The Dark Knight both in the category? I can have my cake and eat it too!
some people are acting as if nominating those two films for best picture would somehow be sacrilege. i think they are far more worthy bp nominees then say SEABISCUIT, CHOCOLAT, GLADIATOR, ERIN BROCKOVICH, FINDING NEVERLAND, JUNO, etc.

plus, those two films being nominated would help boost ratings, which would be good because we want as many people watching as possible when MILK wins best picture. :D
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Post by Zahveed »

rolotomasi99 wrote:well, it seems the studios are going to really push for some very mainstream best picture nominees. i think this article overstates the importance of such campaigning -- i remember seeing fyc best picture ads for movies like I AM LEGEND and 300 last year -- but i think the big difference is movies like WALL-E and THE DARK KNIGHT actually have a shot.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008....GDzXUsw
That would be great if my original best pic predictions were correct. Wall-E and The Dark Knight both in the category? I can have my cake and eat it too!
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

well, it seems the studios are going to really push for some very mainstream best picture nominees. i think this article overstates the importance of such campaigning -- i remember seeing fyc best picture ads for movies like I AM LEGEND and 300 last year -- but i think the big difference is movies like WALL-E and THE DARK KNIGHT actually have a shot.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008....GDzXUsw
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Zahveed wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:
Zahveed wrote:BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Rachel Getting Married

???

is RACHEL GETTING MARRIED a joke prediction or a wishful prediction? there is no way the dogme-esque cinematography from the mirco budgeted film is going to be nominated. if declan quinn could not earn a nomination for his gorgeous work on MONSOON WEDDING, there is no chance this film will earn him any love or respect from the academy.

I was just being eclectic with my choices
i admire your optimism.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Post by Sabin »

TOM O'NEIL'S LATEST PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Gran Torino
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristen Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda, Nothing But The Truth
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hiam Abbass, The Visitor
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Elsa Zylberstein, I've Loed You So Long
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Post by Zahveed »

rolotomasi99 wrote:
Zahveed wrote:BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Rachel Getting Married

???

is RACHEL GETTING MARRIED a joke prediction or a wishful prediction? there is no way the dogme-esque cinematography from the mirco budgeted film is going to be nominated. if declan quinn could not earn a nomination for his gorgeous work on MONSOON WEDDING, there is no chance this film will earn him any love or respect from the academy.
I was just being eclectic with my choices
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Sabin wrote:3) 'Changeling' is getting very middling reviews and while Clint Eastwood has a strong record with veteran actors, it looks like people are calling John Malkovich's performance more of the same. It seems like Jolie is being singled out and even then with strong reservations.
i think eastwood honestly does not care if he is nominated for director or his film for best picture. however, i do think he is going to do everything in his power to see jolie nominated. he has not made any grand statements like harvey weinstein did last year with cate blanchett, but anything i have read or anytime i have seen him on tv talking about the film he gushes about jolie. i think he will do the regular oscar campaigning, and also use all of his influence and friendships to secure jolie a nomination. a win will depend on how good her performance is, but a nomination seems pretty certain just out of respect for eastwood who seems to really want jolie to be recognized.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Sabin wrote:5) Unless I'm mistaken, there is no make up in 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' and all the old age effects are done w/ Visual FX, making it damn near a mortal lock for Best Visual Effects over 'Speed Racer' and 'Journey to the Center of the Earth'.

i read brad pitt's aging/anti-aging effect was done using cgi, but everyone else's aging (as he gets younger) is done through good old fashion make up. i am not sure if the make up branch is going to penalize the film for mixing mediums like they did with THE HOURS and THE PLANET OF THE APES, but they may soon find themselves without enough nominees to even justify a category.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224535970
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote:Or perhaps for the same rationale, Michael Shannon in 'Revolutionary Road' who is the best actor right now whom nobody is talking about at all.

There are tons of people talking about Shannen, just not here necessarily. His character in Revolutionary Road is rather baity, though (not that anyone would notice having seen the very Kate/Leo-heavy trailer). A nomination is not out of the realm of possibility.




Edited By flipp525 on 1224535549
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Zahveed wrote:BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
???

is RACHEL GETTING MARRIED a joke prediction or a wishful prediction? there is no way the dogme-esque cinematography from the mirco budgeted film is going to be nominated. if declan quinn could not earn a nomination for his gorgeous work on MONSOON WEDDING, there is no chance this film will earn him any love or respect from the academy.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Post by Sabin »

Thoughts:

1) I really don't think 'Australia''s going to bring it. I've liked every movie that Baz Luhrmann has done but the movie looks generic and stilted, a lush visual feast but not terribly successful. And when I think about the raw heteroquestionable sexuality of Hugh Jackman with the incomparably frigid Nicole Kidman, I see an epic that may as well be called 'Colder Mountain'. Probably some technical nods but that's about it.

2) I've seen 'Rachel Getting Married' and I don't think it's likely to get nominated b/c its such a joyously independent film, a niche film. I would never have predicted such a bevy of nods for 'Gosford Park' over 'Black Hawk Down' or 'Memento', but 'Rachel Getting Married' would have to be the least expensively budgeted Oscar nominee of the decade and the most fiercely independent in execution. I can see the Director's Branch loving it but not conservative voters. Director, Actress, and Original Screenplay are likely. I'm not certain about Best Picture. It would be incredibly classy.

I will be astonished if Debra Winger wins. She has little to no screen time, plays a wholly unsympathetic character, barely has a speech (it's confined to screaming simple declaratives at Anne Hathaway), and in character leaves all too brusquely. I will say that in some ways there is a missed opportunity for her to make an impression because she could have been dynamic.

3) 'Changeling' is getting very middling reviews and while Clint Eastwood has a strong record with veteran actors, it looks like people are calling John Malkovich's performance more of the same. He is not singled out in any capacity and Supporting Performances usually need to evoke nostalgia, revelation, or just dominate the screen. It doesn't look like Malkovich is doing anything. Likewise, I've read nothing positive about Amy Ryan as well. She apparently plays an exposition-rattling hooker with a heart of gold. It seems like Jolie is being singled out and even then with strong reservations.

This is a weak Supporting Actor lineup this year. Heath Ledger seems to be a lock now that Warner Bros. has officially gone supporting. I've read that Josh Brolin gives an incredibly complex performance but that James Franco is the emotional heart. Nothing about Emile Hirsch so far. I love Bruno Ganz so we'll just have to see. Philip Seymour Hoffman has become an Academy darling and his role as a tortured priest seems like candy and I have a feeling he'll be nominated for reading the phone book in years to come.

So, right now I have confidence in Ledger and Hoffman, and there is the capacity for either Franco or Brolin or both, which leaves one more slot. I think that 'Defiance', while destined for hokeyness and clearly not a favorite child of Paramount, has the capacity for a supporting nomination for Liev Schreiber who has been courting breakout success for a decade now. If not him, then Jamie Bell but I'm more inclined to say that given an appropriately tortured role, Edward Zwick should be able to guide the actor towards a nomination as he has Ken Watanabe, Djimon Hounsou, and Denzel Washington in the past. Or perhaps for the same rationale, Michael Shannon in 'Revolutionary Road' who is the best actor right now whom nobody is talking about at all.

4) I have Howard Shore on imdb as the composer for 'Doubt'.

5) Unless I'm mistaken, there is no make up in 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' and all the old age effects are done w/ Visual FX, making it damn near a mortal lock for Best Visual Effects over 'Speed Racer' and 'Journey to the Center of the Earth'.
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Post by MovieWes »

Okay, I didn't know that. I knew that there wasn't any good reason why I should feel that way, lol. :)
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Post by dreaMaker »

MovieWes wrote:I don't know why, but for some reason I'm getting a very strong premonition that Viggo Mortensen is going to win Best Actor this year for The Road. I really don't have any idea why I feel this way. Just call it a hunch, I guess.
He's not going to win because The Road is (probably) not going to be released before 2009.
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Post by flipp525 »

MovieWes wrote:I don't know why, but for some reason I'm getting a very strong premonition that Viggo Mortensen is going to win Best Actor this year for The Road. I really don't have any idea why I feel this way. Just call it a hunch, I guess.

Impossible. It's already been pushed back to next year.




Edited By flipp525 on 1224534866
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