Golden Globes Repercussions

[Movielover]

I think that every year there is a post about the repercussions of the nominees. Everyone knows that the Golden Globes and the SAG awards are the most accurate precursors and the best tools for accurately predicting the Academy Award nominations. I would say that generally 16-18 of the Academy Award nominees were Golden Globe nominees. And every year, all but a few of the Best Motion Picture nominees finds their way to having at least one nomination in the Big Eight categories on Oscar morning.

I'll start with the first repercussion.

Eastern Promises is in the Big Eight somewhere - my guess is that it will get an original screenplay nod. I suspect Knocked Up's chances are fading, and perhaps even I'm Not There's chances as well. Original Screenplay to me currently looks like:

Michael Clayton
Juno
Ratatouille
Eastern Promises
who knows? Maybe I'm Not There? The Savages?

I suspect Cronenberg won't be the odd-man-out director - looks like that will be Schnabel. I think competition is too stiff for Mortensen to get in (although the Globes put him ahead of Hirsch, which is hopeful). I suspect the safest place for it be is Original Screenplay.