It Is December! - ...and we still know nothing!

[VanHelsing]

My predictions for now and I will be surprised if those in bold are not nominated...

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men

DIRECTING
Tim Burton
Joel & Ethan Coen
Marc Foster
Sidney Lumet
Joe Wright

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney
Johnny Depp
Tommy Lee Jones
James McAvoy
Denzel Washington

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Ellen Page

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Philip Bosco
Hal Holbrook
Tom Wilkinson

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett
Jennifer Garner
Saoirse Ronan
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton

[Penelope]

Well, this is one gay who likes Michael Cera--he was the best thing about Superbad and I'm willing to endure what looks to be torture with Juno simply because Cera's comic timing is incredible. Plus, he's adorable in a geeky kind of way.

[Eric]

At the risk of just furthering the speculation that all gays are against Superbad, I really don't get the hero worship that surrounds Michael Cera (unless it's just runoff from the hero worship of Arrested Development). He's fairly good in his one significant scene in Juno, but I'm not sure he's our generation's straight Sal Mineo or anything.

[Sabin]

Saw 'Juno'. Ellen Page is absolutely in. The film's a crowd-pleaser. It's perhaps a bit too slight for Best Picture, but honestly? You never know. It's got a lot of heart, or at least the appearance of it. I think it's got a PGA nomination down cold, and the SAG Ensemble victor in the bag. The dialogue's a little too arch for me to go head over heels over, but I think this film is something of a distant threat for a Best Picture nomination. Wouldn't count it out though.

Quick word about Michael Cera. I read that he is being pushed for lead, which is completely asinine. His performance in this movie is A) the definition of support, and B) completely heartbreaking. This kid grounds the film. He's the quaking uncertain center that 'Juno' (both the character and the movie) demands. This is an absurdly strong year for Supporting Actors and he's one of the reasons why. My goodness this kid has a bright future.

[ITALIANO]

Ok, so this is the situation right now I think.

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Michael Clayton
The Kite Runner
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Tood

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Great as Tommy Lee Jones is in In the Valley of Elah, I see him in 6th place at the moment. Otherwise he could take Washington's place.

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

One has to make choices, and mine is: no Keira Kneightley. But she could easily take Jolie's place.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

I choose to trust Sabin's opinion on Hoffman; otherwise it would have been Paul Dano, but his movie seems to be in a difficult situation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Collins

Kelly MacDonald could be in Keener's place.

BEST DIRECTOR
Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Marc Forster, The Kite Runner
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Ridley Scott could be in Sidney Lumet's place, and of course Joe Wright (more probably) in Sean Penn's, but we must gamble sometimes.

[Big Magilla]

This is a perfect list, Peter. I have no quibble with it at all. Well thouhght out. Thanks.

A word about Tom Wilkinson, who is not there.
He was Peter Finch redux--that's what some of you are saying. I've mentioned once, a while back, that my wife is bipolar; the behaviour may have seemed to be over the top for some, but it was perfectly credible to us. We both thought his performance was eerily good, and true to the disorder.
The character exhibited great highs and deep lows regularly. Hard to believe if you have never experienced it.

He's 7th on my list in this very crowded category.

[cam]

This is a perfect list, Peter. I have no quibble with it at all. Well thouhght out. Thanks.

A word about Tom Wilkinson, who is not there.
He was Peter Finch redux--that's what some of you are saying. I've mentioned once, a while back, that my wife is bipolar; the behaviour may have seemed to be over the top for some, but it was perfectly credible to us. We both thought his performance was eerily good, and true to the disorder.
The character exhibited great highs and deep lows regularly. Hard to believe if you have never experienced it.



Edited By cam on 1197070603

[Big Magilla]

Best Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

6th place: Juno

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
James McAvoy, Atonement

6th place: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

6th place: Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Bosco, The Savages
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

6th place: Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

6th place: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Best Director
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Marc Forster, The Kite Runner
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joe Wright, Atonement

6th place: Sarah Polley, Away From Her

[atomicage]

'Charlie Wilson's War' is not very good but Philip Seymour Hoffman is absolutely getting in. I can't see it not happening. He could very easily end up canceling himself out for lead but his 'Charlie Wilson's War' role is absurd Oscar bait.

So I've heard.

My ideal roster was always Bardem, Dano, Holbrook, Hoffman, and Wilkinson... but with Affleck now supporting, I have a feeling he will get some consellation nod.

So now, I'm thinking that Dano or Holbrook could be thrown out to stick him in; more so Dano, though I'd really like to see the young guy nominated.

[Sabin]

'Charlie Wilson's War' is not very good but Philip Seymour Hoffman is absolutely getting in. I can't see it not happening. He could very easily end up canceling himself out for lead but his 'Charlie Wilson's War' role is absurd Oscar bait.

[atomicage]

Last pre-Globe predictions for me as well

Best Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
..."Charlie" isn't getting the love, "Michael Clayton" is still iffy, and my decision to bring "Juno" out will most certainly be reversed eventually, I'm sure. Does "American Gangster" still have momentum?

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Joel & Ethan Coen No Country For Old Men
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Joe Wright Atonement
... For some reason, I think Gilroy may pull a Greengrass and get the "sleeper" nomination. Reitman, Polley, and Penn are all possibilities too, with Nichols and Scott close behind.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Frank Langella, Starting Out in The Evening
... Hoffman, Pitt, McAvoy, Brolin, Washington, Lee Jones... no matter who I predict, I feel like I'm making a mistake. What a pack of possibilities here.

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
... Foster is no longer in the race, I think; Adams could be the first Disney princess to ever be nominated; Knightley just because, uh, I don't know; Bonham Carter would be great here too, but less probable than Depp.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James..
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
... Swap one of these for Hoffman accordingly.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
... Keener could fit in somewhere, but Ruby Dee may not only get a "great career" nod, but also Gangster's only acting nom.

Best Original Screenplay
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
... John Carney maybe, with Judd Apatow maybe getting in (you'd think they'd recognize him somehow), or, after this NBR slip, maybe Nany Oliver

Best Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
... Sorkin, Harwood, or Zaillian maybe?

[Sabin]

Elderly Jew voters will eat it up. It's on DVD. It's self-righteous. She's a contender whether you want her to be or not. I can't comment because I never want to sit through the film on any level.

[Penelope]

...if Knightley is as muted a performance as some have said, then she's swapped out for Jolie.

I think she'd be swapped out for Adams; I see no traction for Jolie at all.

[Sabin]

Last pre-Globe predictions.

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
...still not confident that voters won't opt for Into the Wild, Juno or (especially) Once.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Marc Forster, The Kite Runner
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement
...Schnabel is my wild card. Right now, Anderson, Coen Bros., and Wright look like very good bets with Forster right behind on my Kite Runner hunch. Can't quite see Sean Penn making it in.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
...Hoffman and Washington could be swapped out for at least five other contenders.

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotilliard, La Vie en Rose
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
...if Knightley is as muted a performance as some have said, then she's swapped out for Jolie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (ugh)
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
...maybe the strongest lineup in years.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
...Tomei could be in for Ronan or Keener easily enough. Or Ruby Dee.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
...Nancy Oliver could be traded out easily enough for Apatow & Rogen, John Carney, or the Ratatouille crew.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
David Benioff, The Kite Runner
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
...no idea where to put Ronald Harwood.

BEST SCORE
Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille
Johnny Greenwood, There Will Be Blood
Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Alain Silvestri, Beowulf
...is Johnny Greenwood too hip a choice?



Edited By Sabin on 1197057635

[OscarGuy]

I'm working on my first predictions update in some time. I was thinking that M. Emmet Walsh is far more likely to reap benefit from the exposure of Man in the Chair. The lead actor race is tight and to a minor extent, so is Supporting Actor, but here's a veteran who the Academy has never recognize and I wonder if a surprise GG nod or SAG nod might turn favor towards him as a nomination contender.