Bingo, Mister Tee. You said it more eloquently than I. Now let's take a few deep breaths, prepare for the holidays, and return with love in our hearts.
Apropro of, er, this entire discussion: Enchanted has an 88% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. This is only based on 17 reviews, so it's possible it could drop off. But still...
Oh, wait. There's already an Enchanted thread, isn't there? 'Scuse me...
(Feels weird to be placed in a position where I feel obliged to root for a film that looked dreadful in the preview.)
It's almost Thanksgiving and what do we know? - Practically nothing
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Sonic Youth
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From EW.com:
Oscars 2007: The Road to Victory
Keep our columnist's tips in mind as you handicap the Academy Award nominees. For starters: Think globally, trust no one, and -- of course -- see everything
By Mark Harris
Mark Harris is a writer and former executive editor of EW
Predicting the Oscars is an amateur's game — and I mean that in a good way. You don't have to have Academy sources to be a good guesser; in fact, some of the best are self-taught experts who live way outside the Hollywood bubble. Want to play at home? Now that guessing season has begun, here's a handicapping tip sheet.
It's better to be loved by some than liked by all. This is a good rule for life, but also for Best Picture nominees. In the Academy's voting system, each nominator ranks five movies by preference. The way their choices are then tabulated strongly favors movies that receive a high number of first- or second-place votes, the underlying principle being that in choosing nominees, passion should matter more than consensus. For proof of how this changes the playing field, look at the last two years, in which supposed sure things Walk the Line and Dreamgirls were left out of the Best Picture hunt. Being everyone's fifth choice isn't enough.
Movies you think are too cool to be nominated for Best Picture will be Nominated — for their scripts. Screenwriters, who do the choosing, have smart, adventuresome spirits. The last few years have brought writing nominations for Pan's Labyrinth, Children of Men, A History of Violence, The Squid and the Whale, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. In this branch, good movies rule. Go writers! (This paragraph sponsored by the WGA.)
Directors are internationalists. One of the last pre-Oscar heats is the list of Directors Guild nominations in January. The DGA's choices will just about match the Best Director Oscar nominees, which will just about match the Best Picture noms. It's the ''just about'' that's tricky. Unlike the Yank-friendly DGA, the Academy's directors' branch has a long history of honoring foreign filmmakers, from Kurosawa to Kieslowski. Last year, the DGA went for Bill Condon; the Academy replaced him with England's Paul Greengrass. So when you see the DGA list, scratch one American and replace him with a Brit or European. And then send a note of apology to poor Rob Reiner, who's been on the losing end of that deal three times.
Actors are both generous and sentimental. They like newcomers, the very young, the very old, the reliable workhorse, the person with a great backstory, the underappreciated veteran, pretty people with ugly makeup, and ugly people with pretty accents. Think of the actors' branch as a tipsy aunt who hugs you but leaves lipstick smears — it operates on warmth and a bit too much slobber.
In the visual categories — cinematography, art direction, and costume design — pretty beats daring. These are not branches whose members often make the ''less is more'' argument. Period beats contemporary; elaborate and excessive beats simple and appropriate; inordinately beautiful beats intelligently grimy. Westerns, musicals, and epics can still score in the art direction and costume branches, where it's always 1962. Cinematographers are more modern, but they're still under a 50-year credibility penalty for not nominating The Godfather or The Godfather Part II. As for the complex issue of where art direction and cinematography end and CGI begins, don't worry: Many voters don't know either. If something looks good, they nominate it.
Don't trust any handicapper who's beating a drum too loudly. In the last few years, bloggers have blurred the line between Oscar prediction and advocacy — something that has had no discernible effect on the nominations, but has lowered their batting average. Nine out of 10 bad calls are made because you love or hate a movie so intensely you're blind to reason. Everybody relishes making an out-on-a-limb guess that pays off, but try to keep one foot on planet Earth: If you're the only one talking up Billy Bob Thornton for Mr. Woodcock, it's not because everybody else is an idiot.
Keep Internet noise in perspective. Remember that Oscar voters don't follow every who's-up/who's-down microtwitch; they're busy seeing (or making) movies. And bear in mind that some of those bloggers tend to get chest-thumpy about a certain type of (usually male, usually violent) film: This year, a lot of bluster is already massing around No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. They're contenders, but rhetoric doesn't equal votes.
Don't trust lingo. Memorize these translations: ''Insiders tell me...'' (Meaning: I talked to a publicist.) ''Word on the street is...'' (Meaning: I talked to a publicist.) ''The Academy screening went well.'' (Meaning: The Academy screening took place.) ''Voters are leaning toward...'' (Meaning: I am completely making this up.)
Beware numerical formulas. A prognosticator who tells you, ''Only four times in history has the second-place finisher in the New York Film Critics Circle also received a SAG nomination and still failed to...'' is working too hard. Math can't trump instinct.
And don't forget to see the movies. On balance, it helps.
Oscars 2007: The Road to Victory
Keep our columnist's tips in mind as you handicap the Academy Award nominees. For starters: Think globally, trust no one, and -- of course -- see everything
By Mark Harris
Mark Harris is a writer and former executive editor of EW
Predicting the Oscars is an amateur's game — and I mean that in a good way. You don't have to have Academy sources to be a good guesser; in fact, some of the best are self-taught experts who live way outside the Hollywood bubble. Want to play at home? Now that guessing season has begun, here's a handicapping tip sheet.
It's better to be loved by some than liked by all. This is a good rule for life, but also for Best Picture nominees. In the Academy's voting system, each nominator ranks five movies by preference. The way their choices are then tabulated strongly favors movies that receive a high number of first- or second-place votes, the underlying principle being that in choosing nominees, passion should matter more than consensus. For proof of how this changes the playing field, look at the last two years, in which supposed sure things Walk the Line and Dreamgirls were left out of the Best Picture hunt. Being everyone's fifth choice isn't enough.
Movies you think are too cool to be nominated for Best Picture will be Nominated — for their scripts. Screenwriters, who do the choosing, have smart, adventuresome spirits. The last few years have brought writing nominations for Pan's Labyrinth, Children of Men, A History of Violence, The Squid and the Whale, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. In this branch, good movies rule. Go writers! (This paragraph sponsored by the WGA.)
Directors are internationalists. One of the last pre-Oscar heats is the list of Directors Guild nominations in January. The DGA's choices will just about match the Best Director Oscar nominees, which will just about match the Best Picture noms. It's the ''just about'' that's tricky. Unlike the Yank-friendly DGA, the Academy's directors' branch has a long history of honoring foreign filmmakers, from Kurosawa to Kieslowski. Last year, the DGA went for Bill Condon; the Academy replaced him with England's Paul Greengrass. So when you see the DGA list, scratch one American and replace him with a Brit or European. And then send a note of apology to poor Rob Reiner, who's been on the losing end of that deal three times.
Actors are both generous and sentimental. They like newcomers, the very young, the very old, the reliable workhorse, the person with a great backstory, the underappreciated veteran, pretty people with ugly makeup, and ugly people with pretty accents. Think of the actors' branch as a tipsy aunt who hugs you but leaves lipstick smears — it operates on warmth and a bit too much slobber.
In the visual categories — cinematography, art direction, and costume design — pretty beats daring. These are not branches whose members often make the ''less is more'' argument. Period beats contemporary; elaborate and excessive beats simple and appropriate; inordinately beautiful beats intelligently grimy. Westerns, musicals, and epics can still score in the art direction and costume branches, where it's always 1962. Cinematographers are more modern, but they're still under a 50-year credibility penalty for not nominating The Godfather or The Godfather Part II. As for the complex issue of where art direction and cinematography end and CGI begins, don't worry: Many voters don't know either. If something looks good, they nominate it.
Don't trust any handicapper who's beating a drum too loudly. In the last few years, bloggers have blurred the line between Oscar prediction and advocacy — something that has had no discernible effect on the nominations, but has lowered their batting average. Nine out of 10 bad calls are made because you love or hate a movie so intensely you're blind to reason. Everybody relishes making an out-on-a-limb guess that pays off, but try to keep one foot on planet Earth: If you're the only one talking up Billy Bob Thornton for Mr. Woodcock, it's not because everybody else is an idiot.
Keep Internet noise in perspective. Remember that Oscar voters don't follow every who's-up/who's-down microtwitch; they're busy seeing (or making) movies. And bear in mind that some of those bloggers tend to get chest-thumpy about a certain type of (usually male, usually violent) film: This year, a lot of bluster is already massing around No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. They're contenders, but rhetoric doesn't equal votes.
Don't trust lingo. Memorize these translations: ''Insiders tell me...'' (Meaning: I talked to a publicist.) ''Word on the street is...'' (Meaning: I talked to a publicist.) ''The Academy screening went well.'' (Meaning: The Academy screening took place.) ''Voters are leaning toward...'' (Meaning: I am completely making this up.)
Beware numerical formulas. A prognosticator who tells you, ''Only four times in history has the second-place finisher in the New York Film Critics Circle also received a SAG nomination and still failed to...'' is working too hard. Math can't trump instinct.
And don't forget to see the movies. On balance, it helps.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
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FilmFan720
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I think a big piece of Amy Adams chances rest on how well the other major contenders do come December. Right now, there is a lot of pressure being put on Knightley, Page and Linney. Linney has never done well with the Academy, Page is a newcomer in a film that could disappear very quickly and Knightley does not have the showiest role in a major epic. All three could be overlooked, and Adams could get in there on the weakness of the category.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
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OscarGuy
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The only sure thing that I can think of is Julie Christie for a nomination (not even a win is a lock at this point).
I don't feel certain about any other contender so far.
I don't feel certain about any other contender so far.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
You can bet that Cotillard's name will be mispronounced at several awards shows.
As for Marsden, he was more memorable( thank you Philip) than Adams in Enchanted. So was Dempsey. I could never understand the nomination for her last time, and I do not see that she could be in the same company as Christie, Cotillard, Linney, or any of the other serious contenders that have been mentioned so far. The film was--cute--. The ingenue( or fifth spot) Oscar nom will likely go to Ellen Page in Juno.
Edited By cam on 1195585473
As for Marsden, he was more memorable( thank you Philip) than Adams in Enchanted. So was Dempsey. I could never understand the nomination for her last time, and I do not see that she could be in the same company as Christie, Cotillard, Linney, or any of the other serious contenders that have been mentioned so far. The film was--cute--. The ingenue( or fifth spot) Oscar nom will likely go to Ellen Page in Juno.
Edited By cam on 1195585473
It's absurd at this point to say that Amy Adams will not or will be nominated. All we can honestly say is that she's in the running, and we'll only be able to ascertain her chances clearly once we see what impact the film has when it's released. And then that ascertainment will be further honed once the precursor awards start rolling in.
Like Sonic, I hate the whole concept of any kind of predictions (other than a general list of possibilities) prior to December. Like Tee, I was going to cite Shakespeare In Love. To that, I would also add that Moonstruck had absolutely no buzz before it opened in December 1987, and then the whole world fell in love with it. Same with Jerry Maguire, which had a remarkably low-keyed run-up to its release for a Tom Cruise vehicle.
If Enchanted catches on big time with audiences and becomes an integral part of the popular culture scene, then Amy Adams is a serious contender. If it remains just another Disney holiday release that families go to during Thanksgiving weekend, then she's not.
Like Sonic, I hate the whole concept of any kind of predictions (other than a general list of possibilities) prior to December. Like Tee, I was going to cite Shakespeare In Love. To that, I would also add that Moonstruck had absolutely no buzz before it opened in December 1987, and then the whole world fell in love with it. Same with Jerry Maguire, which had a remarkably low-keyed run-up to its release for a Tom Cruise vehicle.
If Enchanted catches on big time with audiences and becomes an integral part of the popular culture scene, then Amy Adams is a serious contender. If it remains just another Disney holiday release that families go to during Thanksgiving weekend, then she's not.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
Big Magilla wrote:Anyone want to talk about James Marsden? According to one poser at imdb, he and not Amy Adams is the real star of Enchanted, so put that in your pipes and smoke it.
I’d gladly “smoke” on James Marsden’s “pipe”. Anytime. Any place.
Edited By flipp525 on 1195582673
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
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-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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OscarGuy
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Penelope's pretty close. I have high school honors in French and a collegiate minor in French...
Ko-Teayar. D's aren't typically pronounced, unless a vowel sound follows. The ll is a "ye" sound and should flow from the Tea. It's hard to put phonetically when I don't know the keys to put it out there, but if you take Penelope's pronunciation, subtract the ending d (and I'm sure there are french and canadian residents who would pronounce it) and blend the tee to the yar and you've got the best pronunciation possible when typing it.
Ko-Teayar. D's aren't typically pronounced, unless a vowel sound follows. The ll is a "ye" sound and should flow from the Tea. It's hard to put phonetically when I don't know the keys to put it out there, but if you take Penelope's pronunciation, subtract the ending d (and I'm sure there are french and canadian residents who would pronounce it) and blend the tee to the yar and you've got the best pronunciation possible when typing it.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Big Magilla
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Thanks, Pen. That sounds a lot better than Cot - uh - lard, which the way I was pronouncing it though I knew it had to be wrong.Penelope wrote:Cotillard (I finally learned how to spell it, now if I can only learn to pronounce it!)
Based on my two years of French, I'm pretty sure it's pronounced "Ko-tee-yard"--but a better French speaker might provide correction.
Big Magilla wrote:Anyone want to talk about James Marsden? According to one poser at imdb, he and not Amy Adams is the real star of Enchanted, so put that in your pipes and smoke it.
Actually, I've been thinking this for awhile; when I first saw the trailer for Enchanted months ago, I thought Marsden looked fantastic and hysterical; and the fact that he demonstrated his range with Hairspray earlier in the year made me think a Supporting Actor nod might not be out of the question.
Edited By Penelope on 1195582052
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
Cotillard (I finally learned how to spell it, now if I can only learn to pronounce it!)
Based on my two years of French, I'm pretty sure it's pronounced "Ko-tee-yard"--but a better French speaker might provide correction.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Mister Tee
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If I may be so bold as to speak for another: I think Sonic's overall point is, we're speaking with authority about things we don't know firsthand. Those pooh-poohing Adams' chances are essentially constructing a film in their heads and predicting voters' response based on that imaginary film; for all we know, Enchanted is a miracle of a film (McCarthy came pretty close to suggesting that), which could toss all precedent out the window. Sonic mentions Shakesperare in Love, and that's a perfect analogy: sight unseen, I thought it'd be a semi-dreary historical pastiche. Instead, I saw one of the most buoyant, pleasure-giving films in many years -- one I was perfectly happy to see crowned best picture. We make too many judgments or scale expectations according to genre or type...but most movies that succeed do so on their own terms, often transcending concept via execution. Thus westerns or musicals (or, long ago, gangster movies), genres that could NEVER win Oscars, suddenly became overwhelming favorites.
It's not just Adams and Enchanted. The assumptions about Day-Lewis could be wrong as well -- maybe the film is deeply alienating, and the lead performance as divisive as his Gangs of New York performance. Juno might be a deliriously appealing across-the-board smash, or another niche-piece like Napoleon Dynamite. Maybe Atonement won't get the universal acclaim we're assuming based on the Toronto sampling. (And, a side question: why are so many positing Knightley as a sure nominee? Most of what I've read has specifically excluded her from exceptional praise)
Last year at this time -- like every year -- we KNEW things; they just didn't all turn out correct. Dreamgirls was riding high; The Departed was too trivial; O'Toole was the clear leader for best actor...and Pan's Labyrinth's six nominations and three awards weren't even on the radar screen. Things change when we -- and voters -- actually see the films involved.
Sometimes, around here, it can feel like everyone's not only opened their Christmas gifts; they've already decided which ones to return.
It's not just Adams and Enchanted. The assumptions about Day-Lewis could be wrong as well -- maybe the film is deeply alienating, and the lead performance as divisive as his Gangs of New York performance. Juno might be a deliriously appealing across-the-board smash, or another niche-piece like Napoleon Dynamite. Maybe Atonement won't get the universal acclaim we're assuming based on the Toronto sampling. (And, a side question: why are so many positing Knightley as a sure nominee? Most of what I've read has specifically excluded her from exceptional praise)
Last year at this time -- like every year -- we KNEW things; they just didn't all turn out correct. Dreamgirls was riding high; The Departed was too trivial; O'Toole was the clear leader for best actor...and Pan's Labyrinth's six nominations and three awards weren't even on the radar screen. Things change when we -- and voters -- actually see the films involved.
Sometimes, around here, it can feel like everyone's not only opened their Christmas gifts; they've already decided which ones to return.
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Big Magilla
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I started this thread because the last one had veered so far off course with the 9,000th discusiion of lead vs. supporting. Now all anyone wants to talk about in this one is Amy Adams.
The pundits' poll at the Envelope has Cotillard (I finally learned how to spell it, now if I can only learn to pronounce it!) out in front with Christie, Knightley, Page and Angelina Jolie trailing. Linney and Adams are seen as threats to Jolie so yes, nobody knows anything which was the theme of my original post, although in MY MIND if not anyone else's the best actress race has congealed around Christie, Cotillard, Knightley, Page and Linney, but I suppose a blood thinner could un-congeal it next week or the week after.
Anyone want to talk about James Marsden? According to one poser at imdb, he and not Amy Adams is the real star of Enchanted, so put that in your pipes and smoke it.
The pundits' poll at the Envelope has Cotillard (I finally learned how to spell it, now if I can only learn to pronounce it!) out in front with Christie, Knightley, Page and Angelina Jolie trailing. Linney and Adams are seen as threats to Jolie so yes, nobody knows anything which was the theme of my original post, although in MY MIND if not anyone else's the best actress race has congealed around Christie, Cotillard, Knightley, Page and Linney, but I suppose a blood thinner could un-congeal it next week or the week after.
Anyone want to talk about James Marsden? According to one poser at imdb, he and not Amy Adams is the real star of Enchanted, so put that in your pipes and smoke it.