SAG/DGA/PGA Predicitons

[Hustler]

Also, I'm starting to really like the sound of a Dreamgirls, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Queen, Babel, The Departed Best Pic lineup at the Oscars. I think it's an incredibly solid slate.

is it fair to think that LMS could rob the fifth slot instead of Letters?

[flipp525]

Two more who need the SAG nom tomorrow: Djimon Hounsou. Except for the NBR, I don't think he's been recognized anywhere else.

Hounsou has also won the Las Vegas Film Critics Award and the Washington DC Film Critics Award for Best Supporting Actor for his performance in Blood Diamond. He's also a past Oscar nominee.

What time do the SAGs announce tomorrow?



Edited By flipp525 on 1167880641

[Sonic Youth]

And one more name: Sascha Baron Cohen.

Even with a SAG nom, the Academy may be resistant. But it'll be something to seriously consider.

[dws1982]

According to one guy at Goldderby (who seems to be an industry insider), there seems to be some question about whether Volver is eligible at the SAG awards.

He says this:

For Cruz to be SAG nominated, the film needs to have been sanctioned by the Spanish industry actors' union. Her own membership as I understand the rules is irrelevant if the film was not sanctioned.

According to him, it's unclear whether the Spanish industry actor's union sanctioned it.

[Sonic Youth]

Two more who need the SAG nom tomorrow: Djimon Hounsou. Except for the NBR, I don't think he's been recognized anywhere else.

And Penelope Cruz... if only to get Mister Tee to stop insisting that she's in a weak position for a nom. And even then... :p

[Sonic Youth]

As far as individual actors, I look at this as "Who NEEDS a nomination?" Though there were several exceptions in '03, for the most part it helps to be nominated by either the Globes or SAG. So, look for the folks omitted by HFPA: Gosling; anyone outside the usual suspects five actresses; Michael Sheen (I can't believe, with all the Queen success, he could be left out); and Catherine O'Hara, or the less-hoped-for Breslin.

You left out Jackie Earle Haley. I think he could sneak into the Oscars without a SAG nom, but at least this would verify that people are taking note of his performance.

Sheen is in a far less dire predicament than Gosling or O'Hara. I also can't imagine he'd be snubbed, but if he is I don't think all is lost. Helen Mirren/The Queen is unquestionably/almost certain to be nommed for Best Actress/Best Ensemble, and he'll benefit from his fellow actors taking a second (or first) look at him. Which is why it is imperative for Gosling and O'Hara to be acknowledged tomorrow. Otherwise, there is no good reason for Academy voters to go out of their way to watch their movies.

[The Original BJ]

Little Miss Sunshine's SAG nod I can totally deal with. The ensemble IS good. Bobby's on the other hand, is atrocious, and I cannot fathom that any group of actors would consider it worthy . . . but it cannot be counted out.

The Departed, Dreamgirls, The Queen, and Babel would all make worthy enough choices. (Streep and Blunt carry Devil, but there were WAY too many weak links in that cast, particularly the non-Tucci men and Hathaway's zzzzzzz of a performance.)

Little Children's cast should definitely be recognized, and maybe they will. What would be wonderful, though, is a nomination for the outstanding ensemble of Volver. Unlikely, but I can still dream . . .

[Sabin]

I'd say that 'Little Miss Sunshine' has a good shot at winning the Ensemble Award. Actors want to be lauded for taking chances, and this $10 mil lil' monstrosity is the best catered "risk" they could hope to find.

Followed by 'The Departed' and 'Dreamgirls', I'd say 'The Devil Wears Prada' has an excellent chance at getting a nomination.

That leaves 'Babel', 'Bobby', and 'The Queen'. My heart wrenches at the thought of a 'Bobby' nod, and god willing, the thing might finally at long last be dead. But let's not count it out.

'Babel' could resonate with actors who think very highly of themselves, but the ensemble isn't terribly peppered with people they've met. And as for 'The Queen', at least 'Capote' had several walk ons like Bob Balaban, Chris Cooper, and such.

I'm going to say 'Babel' for the fifth ensemble spot.


For the record, anybody who said we're in for a dull Oscar season has been proven wrong.

[dws1982]

Assume Dreamgirls and The Departed. Babel is looking like a Shawshank Redemption (I say that as a fan of the first but not of the second): divides critics, does so-so business, but somehow hits the award sweet spot. After that, though, what?

I think The Devil Wears Prada has a pretty decent shot at getting in. And unfortunately, Little Miss Sunshine is probably a lock, since it is well-liked, and it's a more true ensemble piece--several characters on a bus, each getting pretty much equal time--than The Queen. Beyond those three, I don't see much else really being in contention. Little Children is a possibility, I guess, and as you mentioned, United 93 and Iwo Jima both have mostly unknowns in their casts. I'd nominate it, but Flags of Our Fathers seems like a longshot.

I can't think of anything like Hustle and Flow waiting to come out of nowhere with an ensemble nomination.

As far as individual actors, I look at this as "Who NEEDS a nomination?"

Adam Beach. Although I think Big Magilla and I are the only ones pushing for that.

[Mister Tee]

Without doing a full-on slate, a few thoughts:

It'd be REALLY nice were Miss Sunshine not to show up in SAG Ensemble. It's hard to imagine the DGA nominating such an indifferently made film, and Elizabeth was the last movie to get best picture-nodded without one of the two.

But I can't come up with five likely alternatives. Assume Dreamgirls and The Departed. Babel is looking like a Shawshank Redemption (I say that as a fan of the first but not of the second): divides critics, does so-so business, but somehow hits the award sweet spot. After that, though, what? The Queen, maybe -- though it's mostly two actors and background. Notes on a Scandal, nearly the same (add Nighy for three). Little Children (pretty much forgotten since the Globes)? I love United 93, but I'd be stunned if the many actors of SAG voted for a cast with so many amateurs; it and Iwo Jima are far more likely at DGA.

No, I'm afraid the size of the cast and the ensemble feel of Sunshine will be enough to sucker the actors in (as, sadly, happened with Greek Wedding). And, matched with the PGA nod, this might give the film some momentum and propel it to a groan-inducing best picture mention.

As far as individual actors, I look at this as "Who NEEDS a nomination?" Though there were several exceptions in '03, for the most part it helps to be nominated by either the Globes or SAG. So, look for the folks omitted by HFPA: Gosling; anyone outside the usual suspects five actresses; Michael Sheen (I can't believe, with all the Queen success, he could be left out); and Catherine O'Hara, or the less-hoped-for Breslin.

[VanHelsing]

anonymous > Please don't get my hope up high back again. If that doesn't happen, I'm gonna strangle ya! :p

Akash > I LOVE YA!!

Penelope > You know I already love ya.

Last but not least, I know my most desired nomination is not gonna happen but any other names that so far have been overlooked by the critics' lists, being nominated for SAG are most welcomed too. It's just that it gets tiresome when the same names are being cited over and over again. I WANT some surprises being thrown in, baby!

[Penelope]

It has been much discussed, Akash, and I agree wholeheartedly with everything you say.

[Akash]

Can't wait for the SAG to reveal its nominations. I hope they aren't so predictable. A number of surprises are certainly most welcomed.

Like Sandy Bullock in Infamous perhaps?

I don't know if this has been discussed already, but Sandra Bullock is wonderful in Infamous! She's everything Catherine Kenner wasn't in that useless punch the clock role that somehow got her an Oscar nomination last year. In almost every way, Infamous is a better film than Capote (including its lead performance).

I haven't always been impressed with Bullock's film choices but she's always been reliably solid, even in bad films. A nomination for her role Infamous would be a welcome surprise. She and Eva Green (Casino Royale) both deserve supporting nominations far more than Hudson, Breslin, the Babel girls and um...most of the likely candidates being named for that category.

[anonymous1980]

Can't wait for the SAG to reveal its nominations. I hope they aren't so predictable. A number of surprises are certainly most welcomed.

Like Sandy Bullock in Infamous perhaps?

[the critic]

PGA
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93

DGA
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood - Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen

SAG

ENSAMBLE CAST
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed
Aaron Eckhart - Thank You For Smoking
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Persuit of Happyness
Forest Withaker - The Last King of Scotland

ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Houson - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Michael Sheen - The Queen

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration