2023 Oscar Predictions

[Big Magilla]

Dune 2 and The Color of Purple are among the films that may be pushed back to 2024 in light of a prolonged SAG-AFFTRA strike:

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/dune ... 235676007/

[Reza]

I predict Oppenheimer will get double digit nods:

Best Film
Director - Nolan
Actor - Cillian Murphy
Supp. Actor: Robert Downey, Jr.
Supp Actress: Emily Blunt
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Costume Design
Sound
Score

Downey will win.

[Sabin]

I'm not convinced the Oscars are going to happen this year.

[Sabin]

Barbie advanced ticket sales signal $80-100m opening weekend, Oppenheimer $50m.

[Sabin]

I had a thought about Oppenheimer yesterday.

I was writing about Darren Aronofsky and how his brand has waned after years of speculation that he would become some kind of great American filmmaker. I was thinking about what filmmakers of his "wave" have maintained similar cult of appeal and Christopher Nolan was the first filmmaker who came to mind. Every film he makes is an event. And yet, I haven't thoroughly enjoyed one of his films since The Dark Knight. They've all been spotty for me because they've all felt increasingly less collaborative and more his own brain children. I realized something about Oppenheimer that gave me a grain of hope: it's based on a book. It's not just some impenetrable flow chart thing that's rattling around in Christopher Nolan's head. It's based on preexisting material, and good preexisting material at that. Maybe (gasp) it'll be the first Christopher Nolan movie since The Prestige that's about actual ideas.

Maybe this is the moment that Nolan-heads have been waiting, and the rest of us too.

[Sabin]

I just realized something. The Dune sequel could end up winning the most Oscars. The first Dune won six awards, at the time more than any film since La La Land. Had Sound Effects Editing not been nixed, it would've won seven. How many of those awards is it going to win again? It's probably the odds-on favorite for Sound and Visual Effects. Maybe Production Design as well. Obviously we don't know. We haven't seen it but it has to be considered in the running for at least two below the line wins.

[Big Magilla]

Barbie may be one of the most highly anticipated films of the year, but it's a parody sanctioned by Mattel, the toy company that stands to make even more money if it's as successful as it's expected to be so I'm a little skeptical that it will be an Oscar caliber film and am taking a wait-and-see approach about putting it in my predictions.

It's not from an original idea that Gerwig and Baumbach had. They are writers/director for hire on this one. The film has had a long gestation. As noted on its IBMd. trivia page:

Originally announced in 2009, this project has undergone multiple different iterations and been a property for three different studios. Originally it was a Universal Pictures production, but after five years of development, Sony Pictures took over in 2014. Jenny Bicks was hired as a screenwriter but replaced by Diablo Cody the following year. In December 2016, Amy Schumer entered negotiations to star in the title role, as well as rewrite the screenplay alongside Kim Caramele. Schumer exited the project in 2017, where it was announced Alethea Jones would direct, Olivia Milch would write, and Anne Hathaway would play the lead role. Sony's option expired in October 2018 and the project transferred to Warner Bros. Pictures, where the project would finally make progress and become a film.

[Mister Tee]

Not working in its favor is the fact that Oppenheimer is being released the same weekend.

I'm guessing the two studios think of this as classic counter-programming -- Oppenheimer for the boys/serious folk, Barbie for girls/funseekers. But, for me, it's pitting the only two summer movies (post-Wes Anderson/June) in which I have any interest against one another, which seems insane positioning.

[Mister Tee]

Actually I still find it hard to believe and quite a bit hilarious you are showing an interest in Barbie

Just to be clear, my interest isn't in Barbie per se. I wouldn't have the faintest interest in Ron Howard's Barbie, Ridley Scott's Barbie or, god help us, Michael Bay's Barbie. It's the Greta Gerwig part of the equation that piques my interest. She has such an intelligent, fresh approach to filmmaking that I think it's worth hoping she succeeds once more.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Yeah, why would we expect award activity from a director whose only two previous films were best picture nominated.

It's pretty clear, with Gerwig/Baumbach involved, this is a meta-critique of the whole Barbie ethos, and why wouldn't that be interesting enough for prizes?

This post got me thinking of something that you wrote in your review of Little Women.

Based on this and Lady Bird, Gerwig is one of the few American directors who knows how to deal with the subject of class without turning it into an obvious screed. The class-difference between the Marches and the Lawrences has always been part of the story (not to mention Aunt March's elevated status), but Gerwig finds many other ways to weave the subject into her narrative (Meg's envy-driven purchase of the cloth the most direct, but also Jo's need to auction her hair, and her haggling with her publisher). In Lady Bird, Saoirse's need to both devalue her upbringing (referring to her neighborhood as "the other side of the tracks") and attempt to deny it (pretending that more glamorous house is hers) shows what a driving issue it is for her, even at a point (in youth) where it's beyond her control. In Gerwig's world -- unlike in many American movies -- economic status is a constant low-flame element in all her characters' lives. This is a remarkable thing to touch upon in movies that strive to be mainstream entertainment.

This is a very good observation. The idea of class seems integral to Barbie's world. I have no idea how this film will be received but the fact that it's being helmed by Greta Gerwig is just about the only thing that could get me excited.

Not working in its favor is the fact that Oppenheimer is being released the same weekend.

[Reza]

This Barbie film sounds awfully cheesy. Why would it be award worthy? Surely not because Greta Gerwig directs

Yeah, why would we expect award activity from a director whose only two previous films were best picture nominated.

It's pretty clear, with Gerwig/Baumbach involved, this is a meta-critique of the whole Barbie ethos, and why wouldn't that be interesting enough for prizes?

Because maybe Barbie is cheesy?

Anyway....what would I know about an American subject like a Barbie doll. So, Mister Tee, you could be right. After all you like almost nothing nowadays so if this subject holds your interest maybe there's something in it I don't see. Actually I still find it hard to believe and quite a bit hilarious you are showing an interest in Barbie

[Mister Tee]

This Barbie film sounds awfully cheesy. Why would it be award worthy? Surely not because Greta Gerwig directs

Yeah, why would we expect award activity from a director whose only two previous films were best picture nominated.

It's pretty clear, with Gerwig/Baumbach involved, this is a meta-critique of the whole Barbie ethos, and why wouldn't that be interesting enough for prizes?

[Big Magilla]

From the prediction list below:

Best Film: Killers of the Flower Moon
Director: Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Actor: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Actress: Give it to Annette Bening - don't see the Color Purple gang getting any of the Oscars
Supp Actor: Plemons or De Niro
Supp Actress: Lily Gladstone

Killers of the Flower Moon is the presumptive early favorite, but it seems to me to be similar in tone to Silence which was only nominated for its cinematography. I think it will do better than that, but I'm not sure it will win Best Picture or Best Director.

The Color Purple is the third high profile remake of an Oscar nominee in the running in a row. The previous two, West Side Story and All Quiet on the Western Front were remakes of previous winners. The Color Purple is the musical remake of an Oscar favorite that ended up with nothing despite its 11 nominations. It would be an historic win. If they want to go in a different direction, Oppenheimer might be the one to go to.

At this point, I would say that Bradley Cooper and Cillian Murphy have the edge for Best Actor, but it's early.

Annette Bening is overdue, but are they really going to give it to her for channeling Esther Williams channeling Annette Kellerman? They might, but again, it's too early to say.

De Niro already has two Oscars. He'd have to be awfully good as the nasty old man he plays in Killers of the Flower Moon to nab a third. This one is wide open.

The buzz for supporting actress seems to center on both Lily Gladstone and Danielle Brooks, at least thus far.

[Reza]

From the prediction list below:

Best Film: Killers of the Flower Moon
Director: Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Actor: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Actress: Give it to Annette Bening - don't see the Color Purple gang getting any of the Oscars
Supp Actor: Plemons or De Niro
Supp Actress: Lily Gladstone

[Big Magilla]

Updating my first predictions prior to Cannes:

Best Picture
Air (Amazon)
Blitz (Apple)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
Maestro (Netflix))
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Past Lives (A24)
Saltburn (Amazon/UA)

Best Directing
Blitz – Steve McQueen
The Holdovers – Alexander Payne
Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Past Lives - Celine Song

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Annette Bening, Nyad
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Kate Winslet, Lee

Best Supporting Actor
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Bryan Tyree Henry, Flint Strong
John Magaro – Past Lives
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn