New Developments III

[Sonic Youth]

... sigh….
[translation: Trump just announced]

And it looks like 2024 is when we'll flip North Carolina.

(Conditional on economy, ofc.)

[Sabin]

... sigh….
[translation: Trump just announced]

[taki15]

Well, it finally happened. At least momentarily, the Arizona GOP became too crazy for Arizonans.

I'm trying not to get too elated or hopeful. I'm reminding myself that this is probably the one time in my life where Fox news isn't totally lying to me. If Donald Trump didn't endorse so many unelectable sycophants, they probably would've done quite a bit better. It wouldn't have been a "Red Tsunami," but they wouldn't have had to waste so much time and money figuring out whether their better bet was Hershel Walker or Mehmet Oz. At the very least, 2024 will put a host of perfectly good boogeyman in the rearview mirror. So long vaccine skepticism and CRT!

Side note: I'm eagerly awaiting to see how Tucker Carlson manages to turn the FTX/Binance debacle (easily the most fringe story of evaporating a billion dollars) into an anti-Democrat talking point without the answer being cryptocurrency regulation. I suspect it'll look something like Zoomer saber-rattling and "The Non-Profit Industrial Complex." But it probably doesn't bleed enough to lead because right now the story looks more like a bunch of crypto people losing money rather than seniors losing their retirements.

These awful, crazy candidates didn't just fall from the sky. They were chosen by Republican voters. Remember how many times the party establishment tried to abandon Trump only for them to meekly backpedal when they found out that the base would have none of it.

[Sabin]

Well, it finally happened. At least momentarily, the Arizona GOP became too crazy for Arizonans.

I'm trying not to get too elated or hopeful. I'm reminding myself that this is probably the one time in my life where Fox news isn't totally lying to me. If Donald Trump didn't endorse so many unelectable sycophants, they probably would've done quite a bit better. It wouldn't have been a "Red Tsunami," but they wouldn't have had to waste so much time and money figuring out whether their better bet was Hershel Walker or Mehmet Oz. At the very least, 2024 will put a host of perfectly good boogeyman in the rearview mirror. So long vaccine skepticism and CRT!

Side note: I'm eagerly awaiting to see how Tucker Carlson manages to turn the FTX/Binance debacle (easily the most fringe story of evaporating a billion dollars) into an anti-Democrat talking point without the answer being cryptocurrency regulation. I suspect it'll look something like Zoomer saber-rattling and "The Non-Profit Industrial Complex." But it probably doesn't bleed enough to lead because right now the story looks more like a bunch of crypto people losing money rather than seniors losing their retirements.

[Big Magilla]

Congratulations, Arizona Governor Elect Katie Hobbs.

[Greg]

Here are some thoughts from a Florida perspective about the midterms:

1: There is a quickly upcoming test for Ron DeSantis in a special legislative session for property insurance. Property insurance in Florida was already reaching nightmare status before Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, with carriers leaving the state and many seeing their home-owner's-insurance premiums tripling in the last four years (talk about inflation). The claims following the hurricanes will only make this worse. The special session could well be the biggest test of DeSantis' career so far.

2: Before he became governor, DeSantis was my U.S. representative. I went to one of his town halls, but, ended up too far back in line to ask him a question. This did give me opportunity to watch the tragically bizarre spectacle of DeSantis actually being more reasonable than most of the people who were asking him questions.

3: There was some good progressive news, even in Florida, on election night. Maxwell Frost, a strong progressive and, at 25 years old the first Generation Zer elected to Congress, won a seat representing the Orlando/Walt Disney area. Orlando is becoming one of the strongest progressive metropolitan areas in the country. Both Charlie Crist and Val Demings carried Orange County. Here is an interview of Frost shortly after winning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCgV2uWdwYA

4: Also, here is an hilarious Saturday Night Live cold open from yesterday, just after the Democrats kept the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr2LyxJpHu8

[Big Magilla]

Thank you, Nevada. The Democrats have retained control of the U.S. Senate with the re-election Catherine Cortez Masto.

[Okri]

It's the hope that hurts.

Up until election day the Democrats hoped that Republicans wouldn't pick up more than 25-30 seats. The fact that there is still a chance to maintain their majority is nothing short of amazing.

On the one hand, you're absolutely correct. On the other hand, my phone knows that I mean Wasserman when I type in Dave, Cohn when I type in Nate and Ralston when I type in Jon. It doesn't know Kornacki yet, but probably because I kept typing Kornicki at first.

[taki15]

It's the hope that hurts.

Up until election day the Democrats hoped that Republicans wouldn't pick up more than 25-30 seats. The fact that there is still a chance to maintain their majority is nothing short of amazing.

[Big Magilla]

MSNBC just updated its House projection from 220-215 in favor of Republicans to 219-216 with a margin of error of 4. All we need is two more flips!

[Big Magilla]

The thing about the speakership is that they will keep voting until someone gets 118 votes before they do anything else.

[Okri]

It's the hope that hurts.

[Sabin]

taki15 wrote
Republicans winning a slim and unworkable majority in the House isn't such bad outcome. They'll have the loonies like Jim Jordan and Marjorie Taylor-Green running the show and they'll almost certainly turn everything into a circus reinforcing the public's perception that the Republican party is unserious and/or incapable of governing. McCarthy will also be a good foil for Biden on the run up to 2024, like Newt Gingrich was to Clinton.

If it does end up being Kevin McCarthy. I've seen no indication that he's politically nimble enough for that to be a sure thing, especially when two-thirds of the GOP wants leadership's head and a third of the GOP is in a death cult.

In other news, good news for Mark Kelly, good luck to Catherine Cortez-Masto who is only one thousand votes or so down, and fingers crossed for Katie Hobbs whose lead is growing over Kari Lake and would become Arizona's fifth female governor. Interestingly, Arizona has only had two male governors since 1988: Fife Symington, who resigned in disgrace due to financial impropriety, and Doug Ducey, who... it would take too long to give this guy his due.

[taki15]

Congratulations to my fellow veterans, Mark Kelly and Az. Secretary-of-State Elect Adrian Fontes, on this Veterans Day.

Losing the House, if that comes to be, will be horrific for the day-to-day crap we're going to have to endure for two more years, but losing the Senate would have meant a repeat of the nightmare Mitch McConnell put us through in the last two years of Obama's administration so the sooner they call Nevada for Cortez Masto the better.

But, yes, this is the best outcome for the sitting President's party in a midterm election since 1934 and the Democrats should indeed be gratified as should the majority of the American electorate.

Republicans winning a slim and unworkable majority in the House isn't such bad outcome. They'll have the loonies like Jim Jordan and Marjorie Taylor-Green running the show and they'll almost certainly turn everything into a circus reinforcing the public's perception that the Republican party is unserious and/or incapable of governing. McCarthy will also be a good foil for Biden on the run up to 2024, like Newt Gingrich was to Clinton.

[Big Magilla]

Congratulations to my fellow veterans, Mark Kelly and Az. Secretary-of-State Elect Adrian Fontes, on this Veterans Day.

Losing the House, if that comes to be, will be horrific for the day-to-day crap we're going to have to endure for two more years, but losing the Senate would have meant a repeat of the nightmare Mitch McConnell put us through in the last two years of Obama's administration so the sooner they call Nevada for Cortez Masto the better.

But, yes, this is the best outcome for the sitting President's party in a midterm election since 1934 and the Democrats should indeed be gratified as should the majority of the American electorate.