New Developments III

[taki15]

Let's keep in mind that with all of the hyper-partisan gerrymandering going on, there are fewer "swing" districts than ever before, so even if there's a Red Wave it is unlikely to approach historic lows.

Right now, the only thing that will help is if prices, especially for gas, start declining. There's also the wild card that is Roe v. Wade, which could well put a number of races back into the D column in spite of malaise.

The big problem for Democrats is the senate. If they lose more than a couple of seats then it's quite possible that they won't take it back for the rest of the decade (if Biden is reelected).

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
New Poll: Dem John Fetterman leads Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race despite poor Biden approval:

Meanwhile, Shapiro and Mastriano are basically tied.

We're months out but the fear was that Shapiro wouldn't be able to bring Fetterman along with him but now the opposite might be true.

Such an interesting race.

[Greg]

New Poll: Dem John Fetterman leads Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race despite poor Biden approval:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-po ... n-approval

[OscarGuy]

Let's keep in mind that with all of the hyper-partisan gerrymandering going on, there are fewer "swing" districts than ever before, so even if there's a Red Wave it is unlikely to approach historic lows.

Right now, the only thing that will help is if prices, especially for gas, start declining. There's also the wild card that is Roe v. Wade, which could well put a number of races back into the D column in spite of malaise.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
The House votes to impeach, the Senate votes for removal from office. Removal is unlikely, but impeachment is possible, as is his resignation or retirement if Ginny goes to jail. By that time, though, there could be a Republican in the White House which means he'll be replaced by a younger version of himself. The clock is running out. The tide has to turn before November.

At this point? I'm just hoping for a strong enough showing so we don't get historically wiped out (just wiped out) and we can carve a path forward.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 549ebd5193

There's just so much deja vu it's hard to stomach. Something I'm belatedly realizing right now is just how important it is that we have a candidate with high personal approval ratings and likability. Despite historic wipeouts, voters generally liked Obama and Clinton. During their low moments, both of them were framed as too right wing and left wing depending on who you ask, but they had a personal likability that kept them through the storm. I thought Joe Biden had a kindness that would be the right fit for this time but he's allowed himself to be categorized as a weird mix of dithering, indifferent, and partisan depending on who you ask. I know, I know... it's Machin! It's Sinema! It's the Republicans! But one of the few things Biden has control over is how he presents himself and he's not doing a great job of it. I don't love it but increasingly I'm realizing that quite possibly the most important metric to retaining the White House is choosing the Democrat who would do the best job as public relations officer.

[Big Magilla]

The House votes to impeach, the Senate votes for removal from office. Removal is unlikely, but impeachment is possible, as is his resignation or retirement if Ginny goes to jail. By that time, though, there could be a Republican in the White House which means he'll be replaced by a younger version of himself. The clock is running out. The tide has to turn before November.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Concentrate on the positive. Beto O'Rourke is now just five points behind Abbott in the Texas race for governor.

Clarence Thomas could be impeached, and his wife sent to prison for their part in "the big lie". Unlikely, but hey, we can dream, can't we?

No. These are both delusional.

Clarence Thomas would need 2/3rds of the Senate to vote against him. That's not going to happen.

And Beto O'Rourke is not going to get elected Governor of Texas in an off-year election for Democrats. I probably could have ended this sentence after the word "Texas" and put his career to rest, but I've been steadily more and more impressed with his campaign this time around. I think it's conceivable that in a future election he has a shot so I guess there's that. Maybe in 8 or 12 years after Republicans leave his country in ruin.

[Big Magilla]

She is a totally despicable human being with enough real reasons not to vote for her. Making up stories to drag her through the mud isn't going to do anything to keep her supporters from voting for her.

She's an idiot and anyone who listens to her is an idiot as well.

Concentrate on the positive. Beto O'Rourke is now just five points behind Abbott in the Texas race for governor.

Clarence Thomas could be impeached, and his wife sent to prison for their part in "the big lie". Unlikely, but hey, we can dream, can't we?

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
It sounds like the "allegations" may be phony.

I just read an article where Lauren Boebert's attorneys are in possession of internal Muckrakers' text and email communications that demonstrates that Muckrakers published their statements knowing those statements to be false.

I'll say this:
-it's a Fox news article so make of that what you will.
-how on Earth did Boebert's attorneys get internal Muckrakers' communications?
-lastly, I guess there's no reason to believe that American Muckrakers are good at their job. They only have one "win" under their belt: a pretty vicious takedown of Madison Cawthorn. Considering the private nature of the circulated videos, I just thought that maybe they were some kind of wizards who could just find this shit. But in retrospect, there's no reason to believe that. They were probably driven by the desire to get something on Boebert before her primary.

[OscarGuy]

It sounds like the "allegations" may be phony.

[Okri]

Probably not a consolation, Sabin, but I'm right there with you.

[Sabin]

EDITED: I posted something about the revelations about Lauren Boehbert, which is fair game under the Barney Frank rule. But the more I think about it, I'm glad that these revelations (if they're true) came out because at this point just rat-fuck all of them, but maybe it's not the most fitting post for this place.

[Big Magilla]

OK, then.

I don't think Tee is an old fart, but if he wants to consider himself one, that's his prerogative. I hope he was just kidding.

God knows there are enough old people around who fit the stereotype, but thankfully we don't have to deal with them here.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Sabin, I wish you would stop using that phrase. An old fart is a contemptible or tiresome person, especially one who is old-fashioned, stuffy, or close-minded. That does not describe anyone here.

Noted. I can respect your wish. However, I only thought to use it because Mister Tee just used it in the Top Gun Maverick post. And also, I just did a search of the phrase "old fart" on this board. I have previously only used the phrase once back in 2006 in reference to the rapping granny from The Wedding Singer (unless I did so during the purged years). I've definitely made my share of ageist comments but calling someone on this board an "Old Fart" isn't something I'm wont to do.

[Big Magilla]

Sabin, I wish you would stop using that phrase. An old fart is a contemptible or tiresome person, especially one who is old-fashioned, stuffy, or close-minded. That does not describe anyone here.

But to answer your question, there is no comparison between Watergate and January 6.

Nixon was a president who resigned rather than face impeachment and lived the remainder of his life in shame.

Trump is a president who survived an impeachment in which he was obviously guilty as hell before the insurrection, then survived a second impeachment for which he was also obviously guilty as hell. More than half the country knows that. Almost as many either don't believe it or don't care. Few, if any, of them watched what we did last night. Rather than hang his head in shame like Nixon did, Trump is filling his coffers and planning to run for again and could actually win again. If he doesn't run, of even if he does, the equally petty, corrupt evil governor of Florida is the likely candidate of his party.

Will the committee's revelations change many hearts and minds in numbers large enough to make a difference? Probably not.

But for those of us who watched, that was riveting television.