New Developments III

[Big Magilla]

As the Times article points out, it's minority rule that is to blame.

Someone pointed out the other day that the Dakotas (North and South) have the combined population of Staten Island, one of the five boroughs (counties) that make up New York City, yet the conservative Dakotas have double the power in the Senate of all of generally liberal New York State. Mitch McConnell's Kentucky, and other small conservative states, receive financial support from the so-called wealthier states like New York, New Jersey, and California with their heavier taxes. National politics in the U.S. has been disproportionately geared toward the dozens of smaller states for some time.

This pending ruling by the Supreme Court, with its six conservative judges, all of them appointed by Republicans, four of them appointed by presidents who won the electoral vote but not the popular vote, is not a surprise but it is still a shock. It is the first time that the Court has ever (if this goes through as drafted) taken away a right that has been granted by the Constitution. Contrary to what Alito thinks, amendments to the Constitution are part of the Constitution. This current Court is beyond conservative. It's reactionary. It wants to put things back to the way they were in 1776 when the Constitution was written. This ruling wants to not just take away a woman's right to choose, but a citizen's right to privacy as protected by the tenth amendment. Everything is at risk. Marriage equality is next on their evil agenda. Then, who knows what they'll go after.

The Senate has to throw out the filibuster, codify Roe v Wade, pass voting protection laws, and act on lowering drug costs at the very minimum of the Biden administration's proposals, and they need to do all of it without further obfuscation and delay.

[Sonic Youth]

I think I have mentioned it before but I'm astounded that in the year 2022 abortion is still a hot button issue in a so-called western democracy.
I live in the most conservative EU country and we settled that matter 40 years ago with nary a peep from the right-wing parties or our powerful Orthodox church. And that was just codifying and formalizing a situation where abortions have been de facto legal since the 1950s.

As Abortion Rights Expand, the U.S. Joins a Handful of Telling Exceptions

[Okri]

One assertion about the rise of the religious right and abortion as a wedge issue, taki, was that abortion was easier to rally behind that than protecting segregated schools.

[taki15]

I think I have mentioned it before but I'm astounded that in the year 2022 abortion is still a hot button issue in a so-called western democracy.
I live in the most conservative EU country and we settled that matter 40 years ago with nary a peep from the right-wing parties or our powerful Orthodox church. And that was just codifying and formalizing a situation where abortions have been de facto legal since the 1950s.

[Sabin]

I think Democrats (and by that, I mean us) have been slow to realize the GOP's success with wedge issues on voters. We are in the middle of twelve culture wars right now. All a GOP politician needs to do is pick one of them, proclaim loudly "I will be your bulwark against X," and a disheartening number of voters will find it easy to bail on literally everything else. I've seen this with people I formerly considered friends. To be be fair, abortions rights have been the Democrats' wedge issue for ages but perhaps we've just underestimated the degree to which voters will sanction Christian nationalist insanity in the voting booth to fight culture war bullshit.

Will this be different? It's big enough, so perhaps. But I'm not convinced that a fair amount of voters won't just say "Well, Roe v. Wade is already gone. Let's get back to my fears about CRT."

[Sonic Youth]

Roberts knows that an opinion like this would damage the court's reputation beyond repair. He doesn't want it to happen and would rather chip away at it until it's toothless, that way there isn't galvanized support against it. I think Roberts arranged for this leak so that the 5 conservative members could see the dangers of going full-tilt against Roe and scale back.

I have heard theories that Justice Sotomayor leaked it. I've heard that Clarence Thomas leaked it. I've heard that Roberts leaked it. It's fun to speculate, but c'mon. The chances that any of them did this is or authorized it is zero (especially since we all know it was Breyer who leaked it).

I don't see how a conservative Justice would back off from a firmly held belief. I don't see how a leak would shatter anyone's convictions any more than the usual behind-the-scenes negotiations and a lifetime of observations. I certainly don't believe Roberts would do something as foolish as this, especially since it would lead to his expulsion once he got caught.

He knows that this is the one issue that could lose the Republicans control of several moderate districts and is one of the few things that would finally unify support among women and younger voters, causing them to finally see that their namby-pamby support and lack of turnout can result in just this kind of outcome and encourage their participation in democracy, which would destroy the Republicans. It's also the kind of decision that would undoubtedly build support for neutering or outright destroying the Supreme Court. An appellate review court under the Supremes would be the kind of thing that could pass without needing to pack the court, which would also be on the table.

As many have told the Republicans, be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.

And I'm sorry, but I've heard this my whole life, and I don't believe this either. Maybe it was true 20 years ago, but not anymore.

I can elaborate when I have more time, EXCEPT..... if there was an opportunity to build a united front of support, this is it. This could build momentum where a mere decision announcement wouldn't. I think electorally this could move a point or two, and a point or two is actually quite a bit when it comes to the total number of congressional seats. But it would only mean the Democrats lose in the midterms rather than get crushed.

[OscarGuy]

Roberts knows that an opinion like this would damage the court's reputation beyond repair. He doesn't want it to happen and would rather chip away at it until it's toothless, that way there isn't galvanized support against it. I think Roberts arranged for this leak so that the 5 conservative members could see the dangers of going full-tilt against Roe and scale back.

He knows that this is the one issue that could lose the Republicans control of several moderate districts and is one of the few things that would finally unify support among women and younger voters, causing them to finally see that their namby-pamby support and lack of turnout can result in just this kind of outcome and encourage their participation in democracy, which would destroy the Republicans. It's also the kind of decision that would undoubtedly build support for neutering or outright destroying the Supreme Court. An appellate review court under the Supremes would be the kind of thing that could pass without needing to pack the court, which would also be on the table.

As many have told the Republicans, be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.

[Big Magilla]

It's a draft opinion that could be considerably changed by the time the ruling on the 15-week limit in one state is issued. Stretching that dire support to a blanket ruling against Roe v Wade could be tempered. The best thing for the country, however, would be for this to stand so that the weak support the Democrats have now is strengthened to the point where they can actually get things done.

All the Dems really have to do is hold onto the House and increase the number of Senate democrats by 2 so that Manchin and Sinema are rendered inconsequential. If anything can rally support at this point, it's this.

[Okri]

Not much I can say.... it's a sickening development.

[OscarGuy]

Many of us knew this was coming and John Roberts can't stop it.

[Sabin]

Fun day. Leaked opinion.

Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/0 ... n-00029473

[Sabin]

I'll get to my main post in a moment. I'll just say, I'm aware of the fact that I have a tendency to post alarmist messages on this board. I don't regret the substance of my posts. What I'd like to do is move away from is the alarmist nature of them. Just because complacency is a vice doesn't make hysterical dilettantism a virtue. Far from it. Hysterical dilettantism is the reason why I've had to cut several people out of my life.

All of which to say, this is alarming. It never occurred to me that there would be a bump-free road to recovery (whatever that means in this new world) but here's hoping that's just what we're looking at: a bump.


Dow tumbles more than 900 points Friday, Nasdaq books worst month since 2008 crash

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-t ... 2022-04-29

U.S. economy shrinks in first quarter; trade, inventories mask underlying strength

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-eco ... 022-04-28/

[OscarGuy]

But it was significantly lower than his victory over Le Pen five years ago. Then it was 66.1% to 33.9%. That's a ten-point swing towards Le Pen. That's just terrifying, IMO.

[Greg]

For context, Macron's win over Le Pen is about the same as Reagan's win over Mondale in the U.S. in 1984.

[Sabin]

Macron wins. While this was overwhelmingly likely and the outcome was never really in doubt, oh thank God.