LAFCA Winners

[Big Magilla]

Not to belabor the point, but how many films have won TWO of the three major critics groups and failed to get a Best Picture nomination? As far as I can tell, Day for Night, Leaving Las Vegas, and Topsy-Turvy (tied with Being John Malkovich).

Day for Night is irrelevant to your analogy as it won the NYFC and NSC awards for 1973 but was not Oscar eligible until the following year.

It also doesn't fit with your initial three group analogy as the LAFC didn't come into existence until 1975.

[Sabin]

Not to belabor the point, but how many films have won TWO of the three major critics groups and failed to get a Best Picture nomination? As far as I can tell, Day for Night, Leaving Las Vegas, and Topsy-Turvy (tied with Being John Malkovich).

I have no idea who the National Society of Film Critics will vote for. They seem like the most obvious group in the world to vote for Drive My Car and yet that makes me think they won't and go for The Power of the Dog or something. Last year, they had every appearance of being the one group to vote for First Cow and ended up giving it to Nomadland and Chloe Zhao became the first filmmaker they've honored twice in three years since Ingmar Bergman. On the other hand, I still have no idea how they ended up honoring Inside Llewyn Davis, Melancholia, or Goodbye to Language. I'm guessing a very even split between irreconcilable alternatives.

Honestly, I say give it to Drive My Car. I haven't seen the thing but make it impossible to ignore. The Academy *MUST* fill ten slots? Force them to watch Drive My Car. We are looking at an impossibly weak lineup of ten. I'm going to likely see it on Thursday and report back. The worst I've heard about it is that the director's other film this year is better.

[rolotomasi99]

Since LAFCA was founded in 1975, only four films have won Best Film at all three of the major film critics groups: Goodfellas, L.A. Confidential, The Hurt Locker, and The Social Network. Those four films could be joined by a fifth: Drive My Car. Just for the "oh, these things are so predictable" quotient out there, who saw that as a possibility? Beyond that, who's seen it?

I saw it this weekend. It is a lovely little film with some truly sublime moments. However, it does not compare with those four films you mentioned. Heck, it does not compare with several other films this year. It was three hours long and it did nothing to justify that running time. In fact, it could have easily dropped the plot that provides the movie's title and been a much more interesting two hour film.

I am a staunch champion for greater representation of women in cinema, but the story between the two male characters (with some wonderful supporting female characters) was just so compelling. I simply had trouble understanding how the main woman's arc fit in with everything else. Her story would have been far more successful if it had been contained in a separate movie.

From what I have read, the movie is based on three different short stories that were merged into one. I have no idea exactly which elements were from the separate sources, but I felt there was a very clear through line for the majority of the characters. Unfortunately, the "driver" just felt so out of place. Plus, the movie's logic for why the character needs a driver is ridiculous. I was unsure if he was being lied to or it was just bad writing, but it still puzzles me.

Obviously, I am in the minority here since critics and IMDB users think it is one of the best film of the year. As for the Oscars, It seems like it could easily win Best International Film, with THE HAND OF GOD it's only real competition. Outside of that category, Adapted Screenplay seems like the most plausible additional nomination, particularly with how weak the field is for that category. A Best Picture nomination in any other year seems highly unlikely, but with ten nominees required and domestic films mostly fizzling...it is possible.

Director seems tough, but not out of the question. Campion, Branagh, and Anderson (P.T. not Wes) seem like pretty strong bets. Villeneuve, McKay, and Spielberg are next in line, with Del Toro, Anderson (the other one), and perhaps Hamaguchi as wild cards.

[Mister Tee]

Since LAFCA was founded in 1975, only four films have won Best Film at all three of the major film critics groups: Goodfellas, L.A. Confidential, The Hurt Locker, and The Social Network. Those four films could be joined by a fifth: Drive My Car. Just for the "oh, these things are so predictable" quotient out there, who saw that as a possibility? Beyond that, who's seen it?

Was planning on giong one afternoon this week, but I'm spending the holiday with two nonagenarians, and I didn't think I ought to take the risk of getting exposed, given our NY situation. (It's even driven me to get my first COVID test of the pandemic.) okri's fear --that they'll shut down theatres imminently -- has me concerned I'm passing up my only chance to see this (and many of the season's films) on a big screen. But my parents' health is more important.

[Sabin]

Since LAFCA was founded in 1975, only four films have won Best Film at all three of the major film critics groups: Goodfellas, L.A. Confidential, The Hurt Locker, and The Social Network. Those four films could be joined by a fifth: Drive My Car. Just for the "oh, these things are so predictable" quotient out there, who saw that as a possibility? Beyond that, who's seen it?

[Big Magilla]

Box office should never be the be-all and end-all guide to awards, but it does play a factor.

Films like The Sound of Music and Titanic were so beloved by audiences that paid to see them over and over that they were critic-proof and were going to win Oscars no matter how many critics groups denied them. Ohers like Jaws, Star Warsand E.T. were enormous crowd-pleasers but not as invincible.

In recent years, box-office has hardly seemed to matter in most cases.

An exception to the rule would be the box-office failure of a supposed surefire hit such as Spielberg's version of West Side Story which we can't get a true picture of because of other influences - COVID, the reluctance of people of a certain age to venture into theatres when they can wait a bit and watch a film more comfortably at home, and the inability of anything outside of a franchise film to draw audiences willing to wait in long lines to get into the theater.

One thing the box-office failure of West Side Story and other musicals this year does, though, is put a damper on pending productions. Watch Sunset Boulevard and Follies get shot down yet again.

[rolotomasi99]

This is turning out an even weirder Oscar season than last. Last year we had no box-office figures to go by. This year, we have them, but we don't know how to judge them (by normal standards, almost everything's a flop). They've taken away our measuring posts.

I do not believe box-office is a very good barometer in any year, but if you insist on using it then DUNE and THE FRENCH DISPATCH are the two biggest hits in the Oscar conversation. While DUNE did not earn superhero money, it will end its run with around $110 m at the domestic box-office despite being a slower sci-fi epic and being available for streaming at the same time.

THE FRENCH DISPATCH has been one of the biggest art house hits in the age of Covid, with a domestic total which will end north of $16 m. It speaks to the star power of Wes Anderson that his fans will go out in public to see his film despite adults generally shunning movie theaters at the moment. The only other person who could attract an audience not made up primarily of young males was Lady Gaga for HOUSE OF GUCCI. Still that movie is going to end its domestic run with less than 1/3 of what her last film did. So why are so many prognosticators leaning toward THE FRENCH DISPATCH being completely shut-out of the Oscar nominations? If box-office means something, it should guarantee the only art house hit a spot in the Best Picture line-up...especially since 10 nominees are required.

The only other successful Oscar contender is THE POWER OF THE DOG. While Netflix continues to keep secret how much their movies make in theaters, we know the tiny, dark drama was a [urlhttps://deadline.com/2021/12/the-power-of-the-dog-weekend-viewership-jane-campion-movie-1234885837/]huge hit in households[/url]. In fact, its numbers came close to matching Marvel TV shows. Along with its impressive showing among critic awards, it seems like our Best Picture discussion should be limited to THE POWER OF THE DOG with DUNE as the only possible rival.

Unless, of course, you think box-office and streaming numbers are meaningless when it comes to the Academy voters these days.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Assuming that Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are the first four, who's the fifth?

I don't think we know yet. Conventional logic says Dinklage but here's my question: is there any chance that film is anything but a flop considering every musical this year has been one? But Dinklage has been nearing the final five for a moment (does anyone not like him?) that I'm inclined to think they'll write his name down whether they see the thing or not. I'm actually wondering if Washington is a lock. Despite its pedigree, The Tragedy of Macbeth does not seem to be the hot ticket of the season.

Names I could see in either Dinklage or Washington's place: Clifton Collins, Jr. for Jockey (people who see it, like it), Mahershala Ali (in a double role viewable on Netflix now), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos may not be a hit but he's a frequent nominee playing a real life person; I don't know why he's not topping more lists), and I suppose Nicolas Cage for Pig, which I would love but I don't quite see happening. DiCaprio's name turned up a lot more before the reviews dropped. I don't think the HFPA is pulling a Tourist with this one but at this moment it's hard to see Don't Look Up over-performing so I'm inclined to doubt DiCaprio's chances.

Another name worth mentioning, although a bit of a long shot: Frankie Faison. I've seen The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain. I know some of the filmmaker's involved. It's a really rough film to watch but the story is infuriating and tragic and for 80 real-time minutes Faison does exactly what the role requires. Morgan Freeman is EP-ing. It's on Apple now. A nomination is a real long shot but it wouldn't be the craziest thing.

[mlrg]

Assuming that Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are the first four, who's the fifth?

It feels like the general assumption is Dinklage, but that's based on no evidence. We have no reason to believe anyone's going to want to see Cyrano. Of course, how does that make it different from anything else?

I’m torn between Dinglage and Nicolas Cage in Pig, a film that has received much better reviews than Cyrano and Cage has been popping here in there in some lists (much like Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate a few years ago)

[Mister Tee]

Assuming that Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are the first four, who's the fifth?

It feels like the general assumption is Dinklage, but that's based on no evidence. We have no reason to believe anyone's going to want to see Cyrano. Of course, how does that make it different from anything else?

This is turning out an even weirder Oscar season than last. Last year we had no box-office figures to go by. This year, we have them, but we don't know how to judge them (by normal standards, almost everything's a flop). They've taken away our measuring posts.

[Mister Tee]

This is the third time in four years that this group has settled on a foreign-language film for Best Film and then went onto to vote for Best Foreign-Language Film. In 2018, they gave Best Film to Roma and Best Foreign-Language Film to a tie between Burning and Shoplifters. In 2019, they gave Best Film to Parasite and Best Foreign-Language Film to Portrait of a Lady on Fire. It's so silly! Just do what NYFCC does and give out Best English-Language Film to (presumably) Leave No Trace in 2018, The Irishman in 2019, and The Power of the Dog in 2021.

Like at the Westminster Dog Show: best in show, and best of opposite breed.

I'm sure the thinking is, English-language films don't need the boost; foreign-language films need all the help they can get in the U.S. But, given how English-language efforts even now dominate the big granddaddy of awards, many of us would like to know which such film the critics prefer.

As I mentioned in the Boston thread, I've been wishing this since the 70s, when the NY Critics went on their three-year binge of honoring foreign films (despite it now being thought of as a golden era for American movies). We can guess that The Godfather and American Graffiti would have won in 1972 and 1973, given how competitive they were with winners Cries and Whispers and Day for Night. But 1974 truly intrigues me. Amarcord beat out Scenes from a Marriage 43-38. The closest English-language finisher, The Godfather Part II, had a mere 17 votes. With the foreigns eating up so much of the vote, and with The Conversation (12) and Chinatown (10) relatively near, I have no idea how an English-only vote would have turned out, but would sure love to have seen it.

[Sabin]

This is the third time in four years that this group has settled on a foreign-language film for Best Film and then went onto to vote for Best Foreign-Language Film. In 2018, they gave Best Film to Roma and Best Foreign-Language Film to a tie between Burning and Shoplifters. In 2019, they gave Best Film to Parasite and Best Foreign-Language Film to Portrait of a Lady on Fire. It's so silly! Just do what NYFCC does and give out Best English-Language Film to (presumably) Leave No Trace in 2018, The Irishman in 2019, and The Power of the Dog in 2021.

[Okri]

In 2014, Justin Chang (critic for the LA Times and the then/current secretary of the LAFC did a terrific podcast for The Film Experience where he talked about the voting process and just how spread out things could get, which is worth a listen for those interested. It definitely suggests that films can have a lot of support in the room that isn't present when you just get a winner-runner up combo.

I'm still gonna say that Hamaguchi is too fringe for a nomination. Gotta imagine that a lot of voters have that screener link in their "I'll get to it later" pile. But I'm not as confident as before.

Assuming that Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are the first four, who's the fifth?

[anonymous1980]

I don't know if this stat will mean anything but only one film won both New York and L.A. and did not get Best Picture nominated and that's Leaving Las Vegas. And this was during the time there was only five films in Best Picture. Considering how that film did in Oscar night (Best Actor win, nominations for Director, Actress and Screenplay), it most likely would've made an expanded lineup. So I'm guessing we should start considering Drive My Car as a possible contender now.

[Mister Tee]

Have they been voting on Best Film for forty-five minutes?

To come up with the same damn two everybody's picking. The best film/best foreign film axis seems to be throwing critics' voting into havoc, causing long delays like this everywhere.

Not a lot to say, here. I could be wrong, but it feels to me like Drive My Car has really undermined Licorice Pizza's position in these critics' votes. Not to say they draw from the same pool or anything; just that Licorice Pizza seemed the major challenger to Power of the Dog among English-speaking films, but it's not getting a chance to place, because critics are all in on Drive My Car, and winner/runner-up are all we see.

Speaking of which: anyone want to revisit the notion of Hamaguchi being in line for directing or writing nominations? How much can the film dominate critics' awards and still be too fringe for at least the writers?

Simon Rex seemed a "Cumberbatch is winning just too damn much" choice. I'd be stunned if this got him in at AMPAS.

I had Cruz as my best actress prediction literally till yesterday when I posted. I just didn't see any sign she was registering, despite the massive praise she'd received, so I switched to Reinsve (it being LA, I knew to keep it foreign).

Supporting actress seems the category most likely to stay scattered. At this point, Dunst, Dubose, Ellis and Negga have all won multiple citations, and Hunter of course won NY. The only buzzed candidate without a win anywhere is supposed-sure-thing Balfe.

Utterly random, but I predicted the exacta for Editing here. And I can't even remember why I called it that way.

I don't think LA has chosen a studio film for animated in a decade or so.