New Developments III

[Big Magilla]

It could be worse. He could become a Republican officially in which case the Republicans would be in charge in name as well as deed.

The only way out of this might well be to elect at least two more Democrats to the Senate to nullify Manchin and Sinema while keeping the House blue in the mid-terms.

[Sabin]

Well, that's it. Build Back Better is dead. Joe Manchin is a no vote.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/manchin- ... d8b890e801


NOTE: apparently, Jen Psaki has indicated that the bill will be coming to a vote so... we'll see?

[Sonic Youth]

I don't get why independents and fair-weather Democrats think that voting Republican because Democrats aren't doing a good enough job is a good idea. The way to get things done is to vote in more Democrats, not fewer, so that the blustering Republicans and Democrats in name only like Manchin and Sinema are muted.

Then it's past time that we do "get" why. Nothing else the Democrats are doing is working.

[Big Magilla]

I don't get why independents and fair-weather Democrats think that voting Republican because Democrats aren't doing a good enough job is a good idea. The way to get things done is to vote in more Democrats, not fewer, so that the blustering Republicans and Democrats in name only like Manchin and Sinema are muted.

[Sabin]

Sonic Youth wrote
Just to get my bona fides out of the way, I see nothing but doom for the next few election cycles.

Yup.

[Sonic Youth]

I agree it could be difficult, but I think there is a way to explain his gun position in a way that might be less threatening to Texans. He could say that military style weapons are unnecessary, that sensible limitations and safety laws, background checks are reasonable ways to prevent the kinds of mass deaths that we've seen. That could go some way to assure some Texans that he's not trying to abolish the 2nd amendment.

Gun owners have heard all of that for decades. They know the playbook. It doesn't work. They don't believe it.

You're right, though, that those moments can be used in ads by Republicans. At the same time, the changing demographics in Texas could help if O'Rourke ran a more disciplined campaign.

That might be true for places like Georgia. Most demographics elsewhere are shifting rightward, though.

Just to get my bona fides out of the way, I see nothing but doom for the next few election cycles.

[criddic3]

criddic3 wrote
I really admire Beto O'Rourke's enthusiasm. I think it was a mistake to attempt a run for the presidency, though. He never had a real chance there, but then again, a lot of people run for that job in recent years despite having zero chance. It raises their profile. I can't think of a better candidate for Democrats to run for governor this time, can you?

I think the Democrat's choice is someone who will inspire limited enthusiasm and will lose vs. Beto O'Rourke who will inspire more enthusiasm but at this point is unelectable. Beto O'Rourke will certainly inspire enthusiasm among the Democratic base or whatever the Democratic Party considers its base. He's on record saying "Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47." I might be speaking out of turn here, I don't have a poll to back up my claim, but I suspect most Texans would prioritize gun rights over women's reproductive rights. Additionally, Beto O'Rourke's failed Presidential campaign has countless clownish moments of standing on tables that just make him look unserious. I don't like Greg Abbott but he doesn't send out mean tweets or possess similarly clownish moments to cut ads from.

I doubt anyone could defeat a Republican governor in 2022, but had Beto O'Rourke not run for President I suspect he might have come close because he could adapt himself to the mood of the times. I don't suspect that is possible at this moment.


Anyway, sure, roll the dice with Beto.

I agree it could be difficult, but I think there is a way to explain his gun position in a way that might be less threatening to Texans. He could say that military style weapons are unnecessary, that sensible limitations and safety laws, background checks are reasonable ways to prevent the kinds of mass deaths that we've seen. That could go some way to assure some Texans that he's not trying to abolish the 2nd amendment. You're right, though, that those moments can be used in ads by Republicans. At the same time, the changing demographics in Texas could help if O'Rourke ran a more disciplined campaign.

[Sabin]

criddic3 wrote
I really admire Beto O'Rourke's enthusiasm. I think it was a mistake to attempt a run for the presidency, though. He never had a real chance there, but then again, a lot of people run for that job in recent years despite having zero chance. It raises their profile. I can't think of a better candidate for Democrats to run for governor this time, can you?

I think the Democrat's choice is someone who will inspire limited enthusiasm and will lose vs. Beto O'Rourke who will inspire more enthusiasm but at this point is unelectable. Beto O'Rourke will certainly inspire enthusiasm among the Democratic base or whatever the Democratic Party considers its base. He's on record saying "Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47." I might be speaking out of turn here, I don't have a poll to back up my claim, but I suspect most Texans would prioritize gun rights over women's reproductive rights. Additionally, Beto O'Rourke's failed Presidential campaign has countless clownish moments of standing on tables that just make him look unserious. I don't like Greg Abbott but he doesn't send out mean tweets or possess similarly clownish moments to cut ads from.

I doubt anyone could defeat a Republican governor in 2022, but had Beto O'Rourke not run for President I suspect he might have come close because he could adapt himself to the mood of the times. I don't suspect that is possible at this moment.


Anyway, sure, roll the dice with Beto.

[criddic3]

Is Beto O'Rourke even "promising" in quotation marks anymore? He lost his race for Senate, and the Presidency. He raised $80 million for his Senate race, $17.5 million for his Presidential race, and he raised $2 million for his Governor race within the first 24 hours which means he's probably already raised over $100 million in campaign contributions towards losing campaigns by now.

Also, he's standing by his stance on mandatory assault weapons buybacks. Which I admire but how does that equal winning in Texas? Maybe Democrats should stop worrying and love the McConaissance.

McConaughey isn't running. https://news.yahoo.com/matthew-mcconaug ... 32599.html

I really admire Beto O'Rourke's enthusiasm. I think it was a mistake to attempt a run for the presidency, though. He never had a real chance there, but then again, a lot of people run for that job in recent years despite having zero chance. It raises their profile. I can't think of a better candidate for Democrats to run for governor this time, can you? Apparently, there's a new Rick Perry trying to spoil the race a bit (https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politic ... -you-know/). LOL

[Sabin]

I don't care that I'm not optimistic. This is not reassuring news.

https://www.businessinsider.com/senate- ... ts-2021-12
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... r-n1286043

[Sabin]

Really like this NYT article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/opin ... -time.html

Why the Biden Presidency Feels Like Such a Disappointment

(a selected passage)

"American politics is punctuated by the rise and fall of political orders or regimes. In each regime, one party, whether in power or not, dominates the field. Its ideas and interests define the landscape, forcing the opposition to accept its terms. Dwight Eisenhower may have been a Republican, but he often spoke in the cadences of the New Deal. Mr. Clinton voiced Reaganite hosannas to the market.

Regimes persist across decades. The Jeffersonian regime lasted from 1800 to 1828; the Jacksonian regime, from 1828 to 1860; the Republican regime, from 1860 to 1932; the New Deal order, from 1932 to 1980.

Reagan’s market regime of deference to the white and the wealthy has outlasted two Democratic presidencies and may survive a third. We see its presence in high returns to the rich and low wages for work, continents of the economy cordoned off from democratic control and resegregated neighborhoods and schools. Corporations are viewed, by liberals, as more advanced reformers of structural racism than parties and laws, and tech billionaires are seen as saviors of the planet.

Eventually, however, regimes grow brittle. Their ideology no longer speaks to the questions of the day; important interests lose pride of place; the opposition refuses to accept the leading party and its values.

Every president presides over a regime that is either resilient or vulnerable. That is his situation. When Eisenhower was elected, the New Deal was strong; when Jimmy Carter was elected, it was weak. Every president is affiliated or opposed to the regime. That is his story. James Knox Polk sought to extend the slavocracy, Abraham Lincoln to end it. The situation and the story are the keys to the president’s power — or powerlessness."

[Greg]

It is just one poll, but, in a Hill-HarrisX poll 3/4 of respondents believe there will be a recession next year.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-america ... a-economic

I wonder if a large part of this reaction is due to rapidly-rising home prices and the sense that this will lead to a repeat of 2008. Then, there was a housing bubble, largely driven by subprime mortgages, that sent the country into The Great Recession when it burst. Now, there is another housing bubble, this one driven by hedge-fund leveraging, which could burst soon. The impact may be even greater now that it is coupled with stock and crypto bubbles. It will be interesting to see how Wall-Street apologists blame the Community Reinvestment Act for hedge-fund leveraging.

[Sabin]

Dr. Oz is running for Senate in Pennsylvania. It's getting real dumb out here, folks.

[Sabin]

Is Beto O'Rourke even "promising" in quotation marks anymore? He lost his race for Senate and the Presidency. He raised $80 million for his Senate race, $17.5 million for his Presidential race, and he raised $2 million for his Governor race within the first 24 hours which means he's probably already raised over $100 million in campaign contributions towards losing campaigns by now.

Also, he's standing by his stance on mandatory assault weapons buybacks. Which I admire but how does that equal winning in Texas? Maybe Democrats should stop worrying and love the McConaissance.

[Sonic Youth]

Abbott and O'Rourke are in a dead heat in this poll:

https://www.txhpf.org/2021/11/01/abbott ... ion-shows/

Let's not do this again, please.

Every election cycle, a "promising" candidate threatens to unseat a super-prominent Republican. Initial polls show a highly competitive race which never pans out. Rmember Amy McGrath?

I know Democrats are salivating for Texas, either electorally or otherwise. It ain't happening. Just let it go. We have more important things to focus on, like keeping Minnesota blue.