AFI Top Ten films

[Big Magilla]

The AFI uses a floating jury so comparing year-to-year lists is a little like comparing one year's Cannes jury to another. Still, like NBR and the Broadcasters, they do tend to capture the zeitgeist of the moment. That zeitgeist can change on a dime, though.

Last year's list included Da 5 Bloods, the 2019 list included Knives Out, films that were hot in the moment but ended up with one Oscar nomination. One or more of these will probably end up in the same predicament. With the ineligible Belfast certain to be one of Oscar's ten best picture nominees, at least one of these will fail to make the list anyway. With critics looking down on Don't Look Up with their knives out (excuse the puns, I couldn't resist) seems the most vulnerable. The reviews for Nightmare Alley are more mixed. It's vulnerable but not nearly as much. Those who love it, really love it.

C'mon, C'mon or Cyrano or both could fill or augment the warm, fuzzy spots that CODA and tick, tick, Boom! hold. Being he Ricardos seems a tougher sell. It's apparently neither warm and fuzzy nor great art but it has its fans. Strong box office could be a factor.

[Okri]

CODA: Sundance winners either fade out of memory instantly or look better and better as fall contenders flop. While we don't know what kind of campaign Apple is going to promote for CODA, this is clearly more of a case of the latter.

Serious question: do you know anyone who's seen CODA? Granted, I have my ongoing issue with "AppleTV is a streaming bridge too far", but I just don't hear about it.

[...]

Though, as we discussed earlier, SOMETHING has to fill those 10 slots, and these might be the path of least resistance. Silver lining: with nominations not announced till early February (and even SAG into January) there's more time for reality to catch up.

I know dws saw it and found it a nothingburger of a film. Ken Rudolph (AMPAS voter at large and listmaker) mentioned, though, that it got it's streaming screener out fairly early. Though, yeah, I do wonder if Apple is a bridge too far as well.

Remind me, do the voters have ten slots or just five for best picture?

[mlrg]

with nominations not announced till early February (and even SAG into January) there's more time for reality to catch up.

I think this plays a huge rule in this years race. Nominations announcement are two months away which, by todays film distribution model, seems like forever. And by the end of March all of them will be released in dvd, vod or available to stream.

[Mister Tee]

TICK, TICK... BOOM!: I don't think many people are currently touting it for a Best Picture nomination at this point. It's probably seen more as a Best Actor vehicle for Andrew Garfield, but Netflix is reportedly happy with the numbers it's getting, it's got pretty good reviews, and if two black and white movies can get nominated why not two musicals especially considering that the Academy has to pick ten films for Best Picture? It's a sleeper contender. It has a solid path to nominations through the Golden Globes, the Guilds, and the DGA nomination for Best First Feature.

I think its trump card is the number of SAG/AMPAS voters who look at the movie and feel it's the story of their lives. You don't have to be a musical theatre nerd to identify with the struggle/day job/parties/pressure to get your work seen. My Academy member friend (who's in distribution, far from the film's literal milieu) just loved it.

CODA: Sundance winners either fade out of memory instantly or look better and better as fall contenders flop. While we don't know what kind of campaign Apple is going to promote for CODA, this is clearly more of a case of the latter.

Serious question: do you know anyone who's seen CODA? Granted, I have my ongoing issue with "AppleTV is a streaming bridge too far", but I just don't hear about it.

DON'T LOOK UP & NIGHTMARE ALLEY: reviews for both of these films haven't been as kind as one would hope so this is very good news.

Both films made both the NBR list and this -- but you have to wonder if they would have had the poor reviews (merely mediocre for Nightmare; brutal for Don't Look Up) been more widely distributed before the lists were put together. Remember in 2001, when the Broadcasters nominated The Shipping News, because it had been on everyone's form sheet, and they didn't yet know that it stunk? Same with Nine in 2009. In neither case did the Academy follow suit.

Though, as we discussed earlier, SOMETHING has to fill those 10 slots, and these might be the path of least resistance. Silver lining: with nominations not announced till early February (and even SAG into January) there's more time for reality to catch up.

[Sabin]

TICK, TICK... BOOM!: I don't think many people are currently touting it for a Best Picture nomination at this point. It's probably seen more as a Best Actor vehicle for Andrew Garfield, but Netflix is reportedly happy with the numbers it's getting, it's got pretty good reviews, and if two black and white movies can get nominated why not two musicals especially considering that the Academy has to pick ten films for Best Picture? It's a sleeper contender. It has a solid path to nominations through the Golden Globes, the Guilds, and the DGA nomination for Best First Feature.

CODA: Sundance winners either fade out of memory instantly or look better and better as fall contenders flop. While we don't know what kind of campaign Apple is going to promote for CODA, this is clearly more of a case of the latter.

DON'T LOOK UP & NIGHTMARE ALLEY: reviews for both of these films haven't been as kind as one would hope so this is very good news.

BIG LOSERS:
HOUSE OF GUCCI: yes, it's had good news as of late with fairly successful box office and a win for Lady Gaga from the New York Film Critics Circle, but the fact that Ridley Scott's film couldn't break into this top ten list is the first red flag of the season.

BEING THE RICARDOS: the Hollywood Foreign Press loves everything that Aaron Sorkin does. This group is different. They cited The Trial of the Chicago 7, Moneyball, and The Social Network but skipped on Charlie Wilson's War, Molly's Game, and Steve Jobs. If Being the Ricardos is in the latter camp, that's not a good sign moving forward.

C'MON C'MON: this is the third Mike Mills film to miss out with this guys. Maybe three black and white features is one too many?

[rolotomasi99]

CMON CMON, THE GREEN KNIGHT, MASS and I am sure many others are far more deserving to be recognized over the vast majority of these films. Fucking embarrassing!

[Mister Tee]

Before anyone screams about it, Belfast was ineligible due to foreign-ness, but got a Special Award, just like Parasite and other non-American efforts that have preceded it.

CODA
DON'T LOOK UP
DUNE
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
tick, tick... BOOM!
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY