Question to help me defeat my friends

[Sabin]

So, this is how the draft ended up...

We each get $100 make believe dollars ($20 real bet). There were seven of us playing.

The first film out of the gate was Belfast. I grabbed it for $46. It was not my intention to go so high so fast but the way I saw it, there were really only two blue chips that we knew of going into the Oscar race and Belfast was one of them. So I grabbed it.

I cooled my heels for a bit as some other movies got picked up. My critic buddy got Dune and West Side Story. This one girl got Spencer, Tick, Tick... Boom!, and The Lost Daughter. Someone got King Richard and The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Someone got The French Dispatch and Don't Look Up. Someone got The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley. All of these went for between $20-$30. And then the person who won last year grabbed The Power of the Dog for $50. So, that was the second blue chip off the table. Licorice Pizza came up. My plan was to grab a bunch of down ballot contenders but I ended up with it for $29. So with the rest of the game to go, I had only $25 to play with.

The rest of my ballot is pretty lousy. I got The Mitchells vs. The Machines and The Velvet Underground, but I also picked up (for nothing) Stillwater, Together Together, In the Heights, Annette, Godzilla vs. Kong, and Spider-Man: No Way Home. It's a pretty unbalanced hand. If Licorice Pizza is a real thing, then I can win. If it isn't, then I have a chance but it isn't great. It'll largely be by virtue of wins that keep me in second until possibly a strong Oscar night where all points are worth more.

My guess right now is that the guy who has The Power of the Dog will end up winning simply by virtue of that film being a powerhouse throughout all phases of the race: the early critics, the guilds, the later precursors, and the Oscars.

[Sabin]

Is The Last Duel going to do a little better than perhaps we (or I) thought?

It has an 86% on RT. That's not bad. Jodie Comer has some very strong buzz. At the very least, it might end up being strong down ballot.

This is very inside baseball but I think my strategy will be picking this one up if the $ is low or driving up the cost of it high enough to send someone out.

[Greg]

What doc is going to win the critics prizes?

A new documentary "Not Going Quietly" has just been released. It is about ALS patient and health-care activist Ady Barkin.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
a) Maybe House of Gucci? The BTL people - Claire Simpson, Arthur Max, Janty Yates, Darius Wolski - are all prior nominees and should be guild fodder. Or Cruella? Again, the names below the line are mostly known names.

I'm just not sure about House of Gucci. It looks like a Ryan Murphy limited series. Especially following the mixed reception of the Met Gala, I just don't know how much it fits the mood of the country. If I had to guess right now, I'd say it gets nominations for Best Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup.

But sure, in a weak field it does well at least down ballot. It sure did take Darius Wolski a long time to get nominated.

I wonder if Cruella might be a safer bet? It's almost certainly going to end up with a Costume Design nomination. It might do somewhat well at the Golden Globes with nominations for Actress for sure -- Comedy or Musical Film is a wild card. There's Production Design and Costume Design across guilds as well as a Comedy Eddie nom.

Okri wrote
c) I think we'll have a lower ceiling than in years past (I'd be surprised if something got double digits), but taking a look at Wikipedia, I'm rather surprised at some of the peak tallies, so I'd ignore me.

I am as well. I'm fascinated by the years with films topping double digits.

As I wrote elsewhere, 2019 has the most double digit nominations with four films. 1977 and 1964 both have three films. Certainly, 2019 benefited from an expanded slate but I'm not convinced that 1917, The Irishman, Joker, or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would fail to make the cut in a slate of five. And let's say Joker does fail to make the final five.

[Okri]

Some questions:
- What are some movies that could do very well with guilds that I'm not thinking of? Considering comedy, contemporary, etc?
- What doc is going to win the critics prizes?

And finally, how does this race look to you at this point? Are there going to be a few movies that get all the nominations or is it going to be completely spread out again?

a) Maybe House of Gucci? The BTL people - Claire Simpson, Arthur Max, Janty Yates, Darius Wolski - are all prior nominees and should be guild fodder. Or Cruella? Again, the names below the line are mostly known names.

b) It might just be because I saw it, but I think Flee stands a great chance at the documentary/animated film prizes. It's an odd year for animated anyway.

c) I think we'll have a lower ceiling than in years past (I'd be surprised if something got double digits), but taking a look at Wikipedia, I'm rather surprised at some of the peak tallies, so I'd ignore me.

[Big Magilla]

Mass is looking good for acting awards - all four actors could potentially be nominated for Oscars.

Belle could be a wild card animated film nominee.

West Side Story could be the only Best Picture nominee not to have any nominations. I would bet on it over Dune.

Dune will figure heavily in technical categories but come up empty-handed in the top eight.

The Power the Dog should dominate seven of the top eight categories.

The Tragedy of Macbeth could prove unlucky for all but Denzel.

Bradley Cooper could get one, two, or no acting nominations for Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza

[anonymous1980]

- What doc is going to win the critics prizes?

Flee and The Rescue are the two docs I’ve been hearing the most positive things about.

[Sabin]

Hey everybody! Quick question across the board.

Over the last three years, I've participated in a little game with my friends where we bet on the movies that pick up the most nominations from various guilds, critics groups, and ultimately the Oscars themselves. We essentially play for which movies make the best "showing" (fantasy football league-style) across all the awards. Wins are worth more than nominations but strong nomination showings are how you win.

I have a pretty good track record overall. We're about to play again in a couple of weeks.

Just to catch everybody up:
- In 2018, I dominated the game by selecting (among others) The Favourite and Roma. These two movies showed up pretty much everywhere. There were no other movies that had showings this dominant across all groups. This is largely due to Roma being a critic's favorite with reasonably strong down ballot showing as well plus The Favourite being a big ol' costume drama with a big day at the BAFTAs (winning BAFTA day is the secret to winning). I won by 40-50 points. It wasn't even close.
- In 2019, I won by a single point. This is due to choosing The Irishman and 1917. Both of them were strong nomination winners but The Irishman had a very good showing with the critics as well. 1917's oscar night was a bit muted but it did well enough. I beat out somebody who had a hand of Parasite, Pain and Glory, Hustlers, Little Women, and Uncut Gems. A very good hand.
- In 2020, I lost by a single category. I had The Father, Nomadland, but unfortunately I bid too high on Da 5 Bloods, which ruined my chances. I lost to someone who had Mank, Minari, News of the World, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (which was a powerhouse for him). The Father's strong showing kept me in the game. What ended me was Mank winning Best Cinematography over Nomadland. Had voters gone the other way, I would've won.

Anyway, I want to win this thing and the key to winning is picking up those blue chips before anybody else does.

Some Blue Chips I'm thinking of:
* Belfast. It's not going to have strong down ballot appeal most likely but it's going to probably show up the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and Oscars. It's guild potential actually might be pretty strong as well.
* Dune. Probably won't connect with Picture but should get a ton of guild prizes. Tbh, part of me thinks someone else is going to pick that one up so I can drive them out of bidding early.
* Nightmare Alley
* The Power of the Dog. Looks like strong nomination showing. Unless people just cool to it.
* The Tragedy of Macbeth

Some lesser bids could be:
* Cyrano. It'll show up for down ballot stuff.
* The French Dispatch. Pretty good guild showing
* King Richard. How many points can this one pick up award by award.
* Licorice Pizza. We have no way of knowing.
* West Side Story. At least down ballot.

Some questions:
- What are some movies that could do very well with guilds that I'm not thinking of? Considering comedy, contemporary, etc?
- What doc is going to win the critics prizes?

And finally, how does this race look to you at this point? Are there going to be a few movies that get all the nominations or is it going to be completely spread out again?