But none of the people who loved Sideways the most are Academy voters. I do wonder how much more admired than loved The Aviator was? After all, it won the PGA, the BAFTA, and the Golden Globe for Best Drama. I have the same hunch you do but they can't all be friends of Martin Scorsese, Michael Mann, and Harvey Weinstein.Mister Tee wrote
It's strange to have to recalibrate what was a three-sided race (Sideways SAG, Aviator PGA and Million Dollar Baby DGA making for a pretty even contest) into a two-hander. I think the pressure to give Marty his Oscar at last would have been immense without Eastwood for competition -- but I think The Aviator was in the admired-not-loved box that Reds once occupied, and it would have lost best picture in the end to Sideways. Which, I'll disagree with Sabin, was closer to loved, at least in some circles.
But something else springs to mind that might tip the Oscar to Sideways. In this fictional race, Sideways becomes the only film in the race that isn't a biopic. Hotel Rwanda might not technically be a biopic but it feels TV Movie enough to get lumped in without much protest. 2004 was lousy with biopics. Beyond the four "nominated," there was Kinsey, Beyond the Sea, De-Lovely, The Motorcycle Diaries, and Two Alexander The Great Films. I think if that narrative takes hold, Sideways becomes an underdog worth rooting for. Also, Sideways may be a little more love it/hate it than the other nominated films, but the ballot hadn't changed from simple majority yet. And it's hard to imagine a die hard Aviator faction. It's easier to imagine fans of Aviator but also some folks who might like Hotel Rwanda more over here, and some who like Ray more over here... The Sideways bloc seems more solid.
You might be right about Imelda Staunton. Swank won as an unknown as well and Staunton had the bona fides of having a British accent. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the first year where SAG went 4/4 in predicting the winning performances. I'm not counting 1997 because Basinger & Stuart tied and, y'know, I bet that race lost a lot of people their office pool. Anyway, the race essentially boils down to two Brits vs. an American where one of the Americans is playing a Brit, one of the Brits is playing an American, and one of the Brits is playing herself for all anyone watching Vera Drake knows.