Categories One-by-One: Costume Design

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Not quite sure what you mean by this. Downton Abbey opened in September, and had grossed near $100 million by the time of balloting; if anything, it argues for the advantage of an early opening in a short-deadline year.

My God, I had no idea. I am out this year...

I still think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the slight favorite.

[Mister Tee]

Now, what are the chances that they simply didn't have time to see Little Women? Hard to say. They certainly found room to nominate Downton Abbey in its stead.

Not quite sure what you mean by this. Downton Abbey opened in September, and had grossed near $100 million by the time of balloting; if anything, it argues for the advantage of an early opening in a short-deadline year.

I'm going to back up Oscar Guy on two scores. I think, if you look at how the season has unfolded, it's hard not to conclude that Little Women's poor showing in the early awards lists was a result of late release/inadequate screenings. The outcry after the Globes/SAGs was not simply "Greta Gerwig was snubbed" -- it was that a film with a 91 on Metacritic was being passed over entirely (zip at SAG, Ronan/Desplat only at HFPA) while nothing-burgers like The Two Popes were taking spots. And for the Costume Design Guild to pass on it seemed to fly in the face of all history.

Which was then underlined by the fact that the two groups (BAFTA and AMPAS) that had a decent opportunity to screen the film (and, not incidentally, notice how favorably audiences responded) showered the film with attention --five nominations at BAFTA, six including best film at AMPAS. The by-then too-singular focus on Gerwig in directing almost obscured the news that this film is widely liked/appreciated.

And, also like Oscar Guy, I have vivid pictures of the film's costumes in my head -- the walk along the beach, Meg's would-be coming-out party, the Paris ball at which Amy was to have been engaged: all these scenes were enhanced by the sorts of gorgeous costumes on which Oscar voters have traditionally doted.

Does this mean the film is sure to win this category? Definitely not. Recent winners like Mad Max and Black Panther show some members are ready to go different directions...and I can't help recalling the last version of Little Women being shocked by Priscilla, Queen of the Desert. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood clearly has its champions, and is the most likely other choice. But I think Little Women's chances are not to be underestimated.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
I think you're underestimating Little Women. Not only did it get "stood up" by most of the guilds, it showed up in several expected places at the Oscars. I suspect that's because voters had actually seen the film when they voted for the Oscars; whereas, the studio was struggling to get the film seen in the very short window of opportunity before guild nominations thanks to the truncated year.

Sure. You could totally be right.

[OscarGuy]

I think you're underestimating Little Women. Not only did it get "stood up" by most of the guilds, it showed up in several expected places at the Oscars. I suspect that's because voters had actually seen the film when they voted for the Oscars; whereas, the studio was struggling to get the film seen in the very short window of opportunity before guild nominations thanks to the truncated year.

You may not have remembered what the Little Women wore, but I sure do. As I watched it, every single costume popped out at me. The raft of designs just seemed to flow continuously from one scene to the next, if not for the first dress we see Amy wear when she runs across Laurie in Paris, the simple costumes that they wore for their little play, the dresses at the ball, etc. There are countless big moments of costumes in this film. It was one of the aspects of the film that I came out of it remarking was phenomenal and actually shocking that the CDG didn't nominate it.

I also think that the Academy tends to vote for costumes that are a character in the film. That might better explain wins by Black Panther, Phantom Thread, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Artist, and probably the other wins in the more traditional sense. Though, that means it's rather surprising La La Land lost out to Fantastic Beasts.

[Sabin]

I'll do a quick rundown:

The Irishman (Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)

Speaking plainly: there's a bit of redundancy to these nominees. The Irishman has gangster duds we've seen before. Jojo Rabbit has Nazi duds we've seen before. Joker has Joker duds we've seen before. Little Women has Little Women duds we've seen before. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood... well, at least it has more pizazz than any of the other nominees. It's the only nominee where I could at least tell you off-hand what the actors were wearing (well, save for Joker).

Just looking at the lineup, it looks like a race between Little Women and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Over the last ten years, six winners of this award went onto win the Oscar, four didn't. But every Oscar winner was nominated for a CDG Award. Only two Oscar nominees also have a CDG Award: Jojo Rabbit and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. These odds would seem to favor Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Now, what are the chances that they simply didn't have time to see Little Women? Hard to say. They certainly found room to nominate Downton Abbey in its stead.

But let's look onward at the designers themselves

Sandy Powell has three previous wins (Shakespeare in Love, The Aviator, and The Young Victoria).
Jacqueline Durran has one previous win for Anna Karenina.
Mark Bridges has two previous wins for The Artist and Phantom Thread.

Maya Rubeo and Adrianne Phillips have no previous wins to their credit.

Rule of thumb is that whatever film has the most costume design wins. Usually, that favors films that take place in the past. But not necessarily as Black Panther's win over The Favourite would indicate, or even more telling Mad Max: Fury Road's over The Danish Girl (or any of those other ones in 2015). We have to remember that all of these movies aren't really in competition for the Oscar, they're just in competition for the voters' attention and memory which are summoned when the fill out their ballot, which explains how something like La La Land was even nominated in the first place. It *seems* like it should be nominated. This also explains how The Artist managed to beat Hugo. There's no question that Hugo had more elaborate costumes but The Artist *seemed* like the winner because the film's memory campaign won out.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a non-stop memory campaign for a bygone Hollywood lifestyle and I think lends these late 1960's costumes an edge they wouldn't normally have.