Making Sense of Best Actor

[Okri]

Right now, I’m only confident in two people: Phoenix and Driver.

I think it’ll be interesting to see if DiCaprio DOES make it in. Whenever there’s a lifetime achievement award masquerading as a competitive Oscar, it often feels like AMPAS uses that as a time to be “done” or at least take a break. There are exceptions, of course – Jeff Bridges followed up his win with a rapdfire nomination and has returned since then – but given how much DiCaprio’s win felt campaign driven (he slept in a carcass!! It was cold!! Inarritu was an asshole!!) – and how Pitt seems to be cruising to a win in his category, I can imagine AMPAS taking a break.

One thing that has me leaning towards Bale in general was the ease he got his middle two nominations. Vice and The Fighter were broadly acclaimed performances and he was garlanded for each. But he wasn’t really for American Hustle or The Big Short. He had internal competition (the latter) or more visible co-stars (the former). In 2013, he also was up against a deep category with many leading men giving hailed work (Oscar Isaac, Robert Redford, especially Tom Hanks). But he deep-sixed them and scored both times. However, doesn’t it feel like Ford vs Ferrari is his film that’s furthest from the best picture race (as compared to the four nominations he got) and he hasn't been nominated without a corresponding best picture nomination (compare that to similarly-totaled actors).

Sabin, I’ve heard the same thing re: Egerton. And you’ve gotta presume that he’s working the room VERY hard beyond the Globes (especially since Elton John is also in the race for best song, so he’s probably everywhere as well). But I also think he’s given genuinely worthy work here (and, yes, I’m still smarting from last year) and I wouldn’t besmirch a nomination. If Rocketman had been a bigger success, though, I’d be more confident in predicting it.

Antonio Banderas…. Man, last season did a number on us didn’t it? We saw Ethan Hawke stumble at the TV awards and miss out on a nomination despite truly hailed work (and we know AMPAS saw the movie). Banderas has missed out on two of the four TV awards (Note: I don’t actually know if he missed out on the Broadcast Predictor nominations, but I’m not checking). We were rather surprised that he missed out on a nomination from BAFTA, but Cotillard is precedent for those of us holding onto hope that it’s not insurmountable. If this was from any other studio, again, I’d be more confident. But I’m gonna keep him in my predictions because of his profile and acclaim (and because of hope).

Robert De Niro… hmm… Okay, does The Irishman suffer an enthusiasm gap? Remember when 12 Years a Slave came out? We saw a lot during the season of “it’s good but not that good” and it manifested itself consistently throughout the race in terms of what it won. At AMPAS, it ended up missing some expected nominations (score, cinematography). And we saw that discussion again manifesting itself with the Selma the year later. Now, those films have something in common that isn’t present in The Irishman, but I also wonder if the length and pace of the film prohibits “easy” viewing. I’ve seen it twice (first in theatres, next with my parents on Netflix) and found it very rewarding both times (and it’s very funny), but I wonder how I’d feel if my first viewing was at home. Especially those first two hours. Mister Tee mentioned, previously, that he wondered if there was a bit of impetus amongst AMPAS and critics to WANT to reward De Niro for an obvious return to quality with one of the maestros of modern movies and I think this will be a telling year to see just how aggressively AMPAS is turning a new leaf/resisting the imposed changes.

[Precious Doll]

At this late stage a Robert De Niro nomination would come as something of a shock given his lack of 'important' precursors.

I think such a "shock" would be in extremely good taste. De Niro was the true soul of The Irishman. The film worked because of him. Unfortunately Pesci and Pacino are getting noticed more for their respectively understated and overstated hammy performances.

I know some people think Al Pacino was hammy in the film but I thought he was pretty pitch perfect. I'd certainly like to see De Niro get nominated but that lack of precursors is a handicap. Aside from what Sabin said about De Niro I'd like to add that the CGI on him probably hasn't helped. It was so distracting for more than a good two hours into the running time and those Alec Baldwin eyes looked so phoney.

My wish list of the potential nominees is: Banderas, De Niro, Di Caprio, Driver & Phoenix and I wouldn't be upset if Murphy knocked off either Di Caprio or Driver (and that one isn't going to happen). Having yet to see Sandler's work I don't know where he would fit into my preferred choices of potential nominees but I should state upfront that I am a big Adam Sandler fan (so shoot me, folks).

I'm predicting Banderas, Di Caprio, Driver, Egerton & Phoenix but Banderas (sadly) & Egerton are very vulnerable and I think the only thing going against Di Caprio making the final five is that he won the last time he was nominated after chasing an Oscar more more than a decade so they may be enough members to pass on him this time around but it would be something of a surprise if he is not nominated.

Taking everything Sabin has stated I'm included to see Bale, Pryce (God forbid) or even Adam Sandler sneak in. I do think De Niro is very unlikely and as is Eddie Murphy.

[Reza]

At this late stage a Robert De Niro nomination would come as something of a shock given his lack of 'important' precursors.

I think such a "shock" would be in extremely good taste. De Niro was the true soul of The Irishman. The film worked because of him. Unfortunately Pesci and Pacino are getting noticed more for their respectively understated and overstated hammy performances.

[Precious Doll]

At this late stage a Robert De Niro nomination would come as something of a shock given his lack of 'important' precursors.

[Reza]

Good analyses, Sabin.

I would like the final list to be:

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

With Phoenix winning of course.

The rest in order:

#6 Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
#7 Christian Bale, Ford vs Ferrari
#8 Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
#9 Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time..

Have yet to see the Murphy film.

[Sabin]

Over the past five years or so, Best Actor has become a pretty boring affair. What used to be among the most packed categories of the night has been more or less gutted by contemporary studio mandates. Over the last five years, there have been only two nominees that anyone could call a real surprise: Bradley Cooper for American Sniper (makes sense in retrospect but nominated nowhere) and Willem DaFoe for At Eternity's Gate (ironically, nominated more places than Cooper but a big surprise). Usually, the five pretty much fit the agreed-up five.

This year, I barely think there's an agreed-upon six, seven, or eight in this category.

There are three people that pretty much everyone knows will get in: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker, Adam Driver for Marriage Story, and Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood. I suppose Leo is on shakier ground considering that he didn't win his Golden Globe but he's probably safe enough considering his film is beloved and he's such an integral part to it (and that he's also quite, quite good in it).

Beyond those three:
- Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (Globe, SAG)
- Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory (Globe, Critics)
- Robert DeNiro, The Irishman (nothing)
- Taron Egerton, Rocketman (GLOBE, Sag, Bafta)
- Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name (Globe)
- Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (Globe, Bafta)
- Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (National Board of Review)

I don't think I'm missing anyone else but for the most part that's it. If any of these seven made it in, would it constitute a surprise? Maybe Sandler but you could justify it through A24. Maybe Murphy, but you could say "Well, he was due."

What on Earth do we make of this?

I'm not going to spend time on Murphy and Sandler. It's certainly possible for both of them but Murphy's film might be a bit too safe while Sandler's is too manic.

Christian Bale probably has the most going for him. He has a SAG nomination in the most widely seen of any of these films. He's doing a lot of acting in Ford v Ferrari. And most importantly, he has four previous nominations under his belt. These people nominate their own. And the fact that he's even up for a SAG award says something about how much he's beloved. I'd feel more bullish if I got the sense that Ford v Ferrari was taken more seriously in this awards season.

Antonio Banderas should be on steady ground. He's the clear critical favorite this year with awards from Cannes, L.A., New York, and the National Society of Film Critics. He has a Golden Globe. And he's playing Pedro Almodovar in an Almodovar film. So, where is my hesitation? Does the Academy have the bandwidth for two foreign-language films these days? I guess they did last year with Roma and Cold War but I don't know how hot a ticket Pedro Almodovar is with the Academy this year. His lack of a Bafta is disconcerting. I don't get the impression that Hollywood is dying to give Banderas a career Oscar nomination and I don't know if Sony Pictures Classics can convince them.

Another thing working against him might be Jonathan Pryce. Both actors are "due" for a career achievement award. The Two Popes on paper looks like a slam dunk for Pryce and he has a Bafta nom to prove it. I'm not sure I trust the Baftas to predict a Pryce nomination though. This film looks too much like catnip for them and I don't know if Academy voters will feel the same way. Also, Netflix has other priorities this year.

It's understandable that Robert DeNiro has received no significant precursor support for The Irishman. Despite the fact that he would seem to be the driving creative force behind the film getting made, his Frank Sheerhan is pretty much a useful tool for whomever's hands he falls into. He's quite good but he doesn't really get to do anything we haven't seen before until well into the film's running time. He could get dragged along on the film's coattails but is that likely to happen for a film that at this point looks to get the most nominations and win zero?

And then there's Taron Egerton. On paper, he looks the most poised to win this one. He has a SAG nomination. He won the Golden Globe. He has a Bafta nom as well. So, why am I hesitating? Well, Rocketman is a British film so of course he'll be up for a Bafta. Since SAG's merger with AFTRA it's just less predictive and more populist (hence: Rocketman). Even though the reviews for Rocketman were better than Bohemian Rhapsody, the film wasn't as big a zeitgeist hit. And Egerton isn't quite having Malek's moment. The question is does he need it? And there are also the rumors that Egerton largely schmoozed his way into that Globe win.

So, where does that leave us?

Increasingly it's clear that I'm looking for reasons not to go with Bale and Egerton. I suspect soft support for both, but I don't see wide support for the other contenders.


Thoughts?