Screen Actors Guild Awards

[Big Magilla]

This is a bit disingenuous on the part of SAG-AFTRA. AMPAS has, for many years, has had a policy that anyone who appears at other awards shows except for the previous year's winners presenting this year's awards, will not be allowed to present at the Oscars.

In other words, they are not stopping actors from appearing on other awards shows although the effect is the same for actors who want to be seen at the Oscars. They will decline other offers if they think there is a chance that Oscar will call them.

[HarryGoldfarb]

From IndieWire:

In a statement, SAG-AFTRA has accused the Academy of exerting “extraordinary and unwarranted pressure” on actors to prevent them from appearing at other award ceremonies, notably the Screen Actors Guild Awards. The group says it has received “multiple reports” of this behavior, which it condemns as “graceless,” “utterly outrageous,” and “unacceptable.”

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/sag-a ... 202034989/

If this is in fact true, this Academy leadership is absolutely terrible

The accusation is true: too many independent sources have posted this news...

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2019/01 ... rs-awards/

https://www.eonline.com/news/1004918/sa ... how-talent

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/20 ... -statement

[mlrg]

From IndieWire:

In a statement, SAG-AFTRA has accused the Academy of exerting “extraordinary and unwarranted pressure” on actors to prevent them from appearing at other award ceremonies, notably the Screen Actors Guild Awards. The group says it has received “multiple reports” of this behavior, which it condemns as “graceless,” “utterly outrageous,” and “unacceptable.”

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/sag-a ... 202034989/

If this is in fact true, this Academy leadership is absolutely terrible

[HarryGoldfarb]

From IndieWire:

In a statement, SAG-AFTRA has accused the Academy of exerting “extraordinary and unwarranted pressure” on actors to prevent them from appearing at other award ceremonies, notably the Screen Actors Guild Awards. The group says it has received “multiple reports” of this behavior, which it condemns as “graceless,” “utterly outrageous,” and “unacceptable.”

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/sag-a ... 202034989/

[Precious Doll]

Thanks for posting the link to the article Rolo, it was an interesting read.

Whilst this isn't first hand knowledge I did read somewhere a few months ago that the Academy is divided on the issue of Netflix.

Some feel that Netflix is fine, the industry is changing and that the Academy should embrace the changes. The others feel Netflix is changing the way films are being seen by the public in a big way and that the Academy should consider rule changes.

I can only speculate, but I would imagine rule changes would involve some sort of window period between cinema release date and streaming date. Actually, this would just not effect Netflix but some smaller distributors, who start VOD on the same date as limited runs.

One plus Netflix has going for them with the Academy is that Netflix employ a lot of people in front of and behind the camera that are Academy members so I can only imagine what a sensitive issue it is for them. After all they are spending billions and putting food on lots of tables so to speak.

[rolotomasi99]

Picture and far more likely director will probably become clearer nearer the awards.

I wish it were that unclear. Roma feels like a certainty to me. (The Oscars have turned against me this decade, so I've learned to trust this sinking feeling.) It's auteur-driven, starring unknowns (to us, at least), so I wasn't expecting any SAG nominations for it anyway.

Max, have you seen Roma? Because I think it would REALLY be a big stretch for the Academy to vote it best picture. Best director, I can imagine, but Roma would be crashing through so many barriers to take best picture -- the subtitles, the Netflix thing, and, above all, the episodic/arty narrative. I'd really like to know if you hold to this view after you've seen the film. It feels to me a bit more like Boyhood: there was another film that crushed the critics' groups, and even managed to win at the Globes -- but its unconventional narrative finally caught up with it, and Birdman took over.

I think ROMA's biggest hurdle may be Netflix if these articles about Hollywood's hatred of the company is to be believed:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ne ... a7bf5da827

Does anyone here have first hand knowledge about whether the resentment against them for streaming rather than showing their movies theatrically is as bad as has been discussed or is just hype?

[Mister Tee]

Picture and far more likely director will probably become clearer nearer the awards.

I wish it were that unclear. Roma feels like a certainty to me. (The Oscars have turned against me this decade, so I've learned to trust this sinking feeling.) It's auteur-driven, starring unknowns (to us, at least), so I wasn't expecting any SAG nominations for it anyway.

Max, have you seen Roma? Because I think it would REALLY be a big stretch for the Academy to vote it best picture. Best director, I can imagine, but Roma would be crashing through so many barriers to take best picture -- the subtitles, the Netflix thing, and, above all, the episodic/arty narrative. I'd really like to know if you hold to this view after you've seen the film. It feels to me a bit more like Boyhood: there was another film that crushed the critics' groups, and even managed to win at the Globes -- but its unconventional narrative finally caught up with it, and Birdman took over.

That said, 1) I'd be perfectly happy or Roma to win and 2) I don't really have any strong feeling about what will win best picture this year. (Or best actress, for that matter. If you forced me to bet today, I think I'd say Colman, but it's easy to imagine Close, Gaga, or McCarthy.)

[Precious Doll]

Picture and far more likely director will probably become clearer nearer the awards.

I wish it were that unclear. Roma feels like a certainty to me. (The Oscars have turned against me this decade, so I've learned to trust this sinking feeling.) It's auteur-driven, starring unknowns (to us, at least), so I wasn't expecting any SAG nominations for it anyway.

There couldn't possibly be a better year than 2018 for a love letter to Mexico. It's such perfect timing that I'm suspecting either clairvoyance or time travel was involved. I can't see how it loses.

I'd completely forgotten about Roma. I think a director win is a near lock but there is room for an upset. Picture I'd be surprised as they will reward it in the Foreign Language Film category - however, history may be made and Roma wins both. That it is not a player in the SAGS and it wasn't eligible(?) for Picture outside of the Foreign Language Category with the Globes muddies the waters - not a bad thing.

[rolotomasi99]

Aren't we underestimating Spike Lee's potential? Haven't seen his film but he surely has the "overdue" narrative written all over himself...

Not just him personally but we should also consider the fact no black director has ever won while Mexican directors have been 4 of the last 5 winners.

Plus BLACK KLANSMAN also feels particularly topical on its own, but Lee brings it directly into the present by ending with the Charlottesville murder and Trump's deplorable response. I swear, if The Donald tweeted out an attack against Spike Lee or the movie itself, the race would be pretty much over. The Academy would hand Picture, Director, and Screenplay to BLACK KLANSMAN as a fuck you to Trump.

Actually, the more I think about it, the film is kind of the perfect compromise choice between the art house and box-office factions in the Academy. It is well made and can be taken seriously like ROMA and THE FAVOURITE, but was financially successful and connected with general audiences like BLACK PANTHER and A STAR IS BORN. The film winning Best Picture would not be an embarrassment like the any of the blockbusters, but is not as obscure and niche as the critical darlings. It would not make ABC happy, but it might stave off the "irrelevancy" attacks being directed at the Oscars.

My only quibble with the movie is how they changed the real story. The particular Klan chapter the police were surveilling were not targeting black people but instead planned to blow up gay bars. I guess Spike Lee was not interested in telling a story about a black and Jewish police officer protecting gay people from being killed. If straight washing John Forbes Nash Jr. could not stop A BEAUTIFUL MIND from winning, I doubt it will hurt BLACK KLANSMAN's chances.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Roma wins foreign film, Star (or Green Card) gets best picture while Cuaron wins director.

The Ang Lee scenario... two Best Director awards and no Best Picture... how unlikely is that?

Quite the contrary can be said: Caurón might benefit from his previous lost in BP (the "overdue" sense). It's more likely that he'll be some sort of reverse Spielberg, Stone or González Iñárritu case.

Aren't we underestimating Spike Lee's potential? Haven't seen his film but he surely has the "overdue" narrative written all over himself...

[Reza]

Hopefully this is the year the Academy pulls upsets in most of the major categories.

At this stage anyway there appears to be a number possible outcomes in the major categories.

I think the only one near a lock is Cooper. If Gaga wins the Globe & SAG she will be the frontrunner but a frontrunner that may have a couple of others snapping at her heels.

I do think Supporting Actor is up in the air and Supporting Actress has gone a little pear shaped with Regina King's SAG omission, though that doesn't by any means completely rules out an Oscar win. I think Ethan Hawke is way more hurt by the lack of SAG nomination than King.

Picture and far more likely director will probably become clearer nearer the awards.

I'm moving closer to the feeling that First Reformed is going to completely shutout on the morning of the nominations.

Cooper is probably the only lock with Mortensen, Bale, Hawke and Malek rounding out the five.

I still think Close is going to win with Lady Gaga, McCarthy, Colman and Kidman making the cut.

Ali will win his second Oscar with Chalamet, Grant, Elliott and Driver in the supporting race.

Regina King will win over Adams, Stone, Weisz and Foy.

Roma wins foreign film, Star (or Green Card) gets best picture while Cuaron wins director.

[MaxWilder]

Picture and far more likely director will probably become clearer nearer the awards.

I wish it were that unclear. Roma feels like a certainty to me. (The Oscars have turned against me this decade, so I've learned to trust this sinking feeling.) It's auteur-driven, starring unknowns (to us, at least), so I wasn't expecting any SAG nominations for it anyway.

There couldn't possibly be a better year than 2018 for a love letter to Mexico. It's such perfect timing that I'm suspecting either clairvoyance or time travel was involved. I can't see how it loses.

[Precious Doll]

Hopefully this is the year the Academy pulls upsets in most of the major categories.

At this stage anyway there appears to be a number possible outcomes in the major categories.

I think the only one near a lock is Cooper. If Gaga wins the Globe & SAG she will be the frontrunner but a frontrunner that may have a couple of others snapping at her heels.

I do think Supporting Actor is up in the air and Supporting Actress has gone a little pear shaped with Regina King's SAG omission, though that doesn't by any means completely rules out an Oscar win. I think Ethan Hawke is way more hurt by the lack of SAG nomination than King.

Picture and far more likely director will probably become clearer nearer the awards.

I'm moving closer to the feeling that First Reformed is going to completely shutout on the morning of the nominations.

[Reza]

If she wins, it will be one of the most unworthy acting victories in the history of the Oscars.

.

It would be one of the most embarassing Oscar wins ever. And I guess that especially the Acting branch will realize that (before it's too late, I hope). But of course, it's not just the actors who vote for the winners. (This is why the SAG will be especially interesting in this case).

Badley Cooper at least gives a professional performance. It will be the kind of Oscar wins that, even just because the competition seems to be unusually weak, I could live with - if not support.

And as for A Star is Born winning Best Picture... well, I had never even vaguely considered this possibility. Guess I will suddenly become a fan of Roma soon

Hopefully this is the year the Academy pulls upsets in most of the major categories.

[Precious Doll]

Any of the nominees except Emily Blunt, absurbly nominated in support of who knows what in A Quiet Place, could win this thing.

In place of Millicent Simmonds who steals the film.