Mister Tee wrote:I know dws has weighed in on various aspects of this, but I'd be interested in hearing from him what sort of local reaction the Roy Moore story is getting.
First, a little context, because I've (intentionally) never really discussed politics here much: I guess I would consider myself slightly right-of-center politically, someone who usually hits really close to the center on those "political spectrum" things, slightly in the "Conservative Libertarian" quadrant. I can't find much in common with any political party these days, and was horrified as Trump ended up the Republican nominee last year. (I just wanted them to put up a candidate who had a coherent political philosophy and worldview, which isn't asking too much since political parties have routinely done that throughout history.)
Roy Moore has been kicking around in Alabama for quite awhile; he knows very well how to play into the evangelical base. I myself have always been frustrated at the fact that people call themselves conservatives and then give Moore a pass for doing things that they would routinely (and rightly, in my opinion) call judicial activism if it were coming from the other side. Moore routinely decided cases based on his personal/religious beliefs and then twisted the law to try to make it fit. I also think it's telling that he ran for governor in 2010 and placed fourth in the primary with less than 20% of the vote, even though he was easily the most well-known candidate statewide. I've never voted for the man, and from a legal perspective, I think that he absolutely should've been removed from office--you don't get to ignore court orders that you disagree with, even if you think the court order was wrongly issued.
The allegations yesterday were treated with plenty of skepticism initially, but people, at least from what I've observed, seem to see them as credible. These are just people I personally know, though. News outlets have been pretty okay, from what I've seen--mostly just reporting the allegations without editorializing on them. AL.com has been strongly anti-Moore from the start, and they've been on this one pretty strongly today. Many local Republican party leaders through the state have put out statements, and those statements, for the most part, are not good. Most are along the lines of "anyone can be accused at any time", but there was one state representative, from a few towns over who had this to say:
State Rep. Ed Henry, R-Hartselle, said he suspects the timing of the stories told by five women about Moore’s advances 40 years ago, as reported by The Washington Post, are politically motivated as the Dec. 12 special election nears. Moore will face Democrat Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney.
Henry said he believes legal action should be considered against Moore’s accusers, finding their story unbelievable.
“If they believe this man is predatory, they are guilty of allowing him to exist for 40 years. I think someone should prosecute and go after them. You can’t be a victim 40 years later, in my opinion,” Henry said.
And Henry was dismissive of the idea that Moore should back out of the race.
“The idea that accusations like this would stop his campaign is ludicrous. If this was a habit, like you’ve read with Bill Cosby and millions of dollars paid to settle cases and years of witnesses, that would be one thing,” Henry said. “You cannot tell me there hasn’t been an opportunity through the years to make these accusations with as many times as he’s (Moore) run (for office) and been in the news.
The Alabama lawmaker said Moore is a threat to “establishment” lawmakers on the national level, including in the Republican Party.
“(Senate Majority Leader Mitch) McConnell and (Arizona Sen.) John McCain, what they said about Moore ending his campaign just really gets to me. They are two of the biggest goobers we have in Washington D.C.,” Henry said. “Even (U.S. Sen. Richard) Shelby was a coward with his comments. He’s not going to like Roy Moore because Shelby was a Democrat for a long time. Everyone close to the establishment is going to love this.”
Henry said he believes Moore’s accusers have been stoked by the Democratic Party and may be paid money eventually for their actions.
“I’m not buying it,” Henry said. “It’s too easy for someone to make these accusations. It’s foolish to go down that road, it’s like what if a frog had wings, he wouldn’t bump his ass every time he jumps.”
And there have been a few who were along the lines of, "we should still vote for him, even if he is guilty, because at least he's not a Democrat".
As for what will happen...Moore isn't one to back down, as he's made quite clear in the past. I don't see any chance that he steps down, and it's too late to replace him on the ballot. I wish the Republicans would take a stand and say that some things are more important than winning an election, and refuse to fund the campaign (maybe even fund a write-in), and if he wins, refuse to let him into the caucus, and move to expel him. But given that they stuck with Trump, I don't see that as being very likely. Moore's best move in my opinion would be to pledge to resign if elected, and let Kay Ivey appoint someone, but again, that would be completely out of character. The outcome of the election will depend almost entirely on voter turnout. I don't see this flipping many voters from Moore to Jones, but I think it could definitely depress turnout for Moore. He was already a divisive candidate; in a state where Republicans usually win statewide contests by 20 points, I think that his divisiveness (plus a more-energized Dem base) would've cut his lead to about 10 points. I'm not sure what'll happen now. If Moore wins, I think he'll almost definitely be primaried (with party support behind his challenger), and if Jones wins, he'll really struggle to win a full term, unless he shows willingness to work from the middle.