Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[flipp525]

ThePianist, have you noticed that no one else posts pics and GIFs in their posts on this board? The reason is because no one does that here (and no one really has in the almost twenty years I’ve been here except for you). I appreciate your enthusiasm, but you should learn and follow the local rules of the road.

This isn’t AwardsWatch.

[ThePianist]

ATTENTION: If you're predicting a Film to win Best Picture, that's not winning either of the Screenplay Awards. Well ...

[ThePianist]

Yeah Call Me By Your Name is not likely to win Best Picture like so many have been predicting. I thought this a while ago, because you know an issue will be made of the age difference in the characters, even though it is consensual and the younger is supposed to be 17 believe, which is legal in most U.S. states.

Wrong. In fact, many have been predicting either 'The Post', 'Dunkirk', or Three Billboards for the win. TSOW built some steam after It's premiere in Venice, but has definitely loss some after Toronto. (It is expected to be huge though, many are expect Del Toro to win Director.)

'Call Me By Your Name' seems to have the expectations that 'Moonlight' had back in November.

Also, SPC have just started SAG Screenings for CMBYN.

[ThePianist]

Appy-polly loggies. I intended to speak of 'All The Money in the World', not CMYBN. Sorry Lads.

The Kevin Spacey charges have created the worst atmosphere for this film to come out.

I wouldn't be surprised If they didn't even release it. (Or, at the very least; delayed it.)

[Okri]

So, the LA, National Society, New York and Boston Film Critics have banned all Disney films from awards consideration until Disney lifts the ban on the LA Times attending press screenings. Don't think it actually changes anything beyond forcing them past Coco for animated film, but that's 2017 for you.

[criddic3]

Yeah Call Me By Your Name is not likely to win Best Picture like so many have been predicting. I thought this a while ago, because you know an issue will be made of the age difference in the characters, even though it is consensual and the younger is supposed to be 17 believe, which is legal in most U.S. states.

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
Kind of unfair to the film if that happens (Haven't seen it but I am reading the book) since it IS about a consensual relationship. If The Reader can get nominated and win an Oscar, Call Me By Your Name sure deserves a chance. Though there hasn't been much objection to the film's subject matter from people who HAVE seen it.

Don't be a Pollyannaish, Irvin. You know I'm not suggesting this is my opinion, and don't imagine for a second that people will turn a blind eye to the subject matter in the same way they did 'The Reader.' FOX News is looking for every opportunity to turn the subject matter away from Trump. This past week, they spent twenty minutes on a cheeseburger emoji. They will turn 'Call Me By Your Name' into a conservative rallying point.

I think this film might be in big trouble.

[Precious Doll]

The Kevin Spacey charges have created the worst atmosphere for this film to come out.

Kind of unfair to the film if that happens (Haven't seen it but I am reading the book) since it IS about a consensual relationship. If The Reader can get nominated and win an Oscar, Call Me By Your Name sure deserves a chance. Though there hasn't been much objection to the film's subject matter from people who HAVE seen it.

The only person to attack the film without seeing it (I'm making the assumption that he hasn't seen it) appears to have been James Woods on Twitter:

http://www.indiewire.com/2017/09/armie- ... 201875147/

Clearly James Woods is trolling.

More will follow, I'm sure. Amy Taubin, who writes for among others Film Comment, dismissed the film in her Sundance roundup as a 'predatory creepfest' laying blame with Armie Hammer being too old for the role. I don't recall his age actually being mentioned in the film. I found one very brief moment in the film a little creepy but within context.

I doubt very much that the film will be pulled from release but Sony Classics may need to reconsider the U.S. release strategy (number of screens and how quickly they widen its release) given it's underperformance in the U.K.

[anonymous1980]

The Kevin Spacey charges have created the worst atmosphere for this film to come out.

Kind of unfair to the film if that happens (Haven't seen it but I am reading the book) since it IS about a consensual relationship. If The Reader can get nominated and win an Oscar, Call Me By Your Name sure deserves a chance. Though there hasn't been much objection to the film's subject matter from people who HAVE seen it.

[ThePianist]

I wouldn't be surprised If they didn't even release it. (Or, at the very least; delayed it.)

[ThePianist]

This

[Sabin]

The Kevin Spacey charges have created the worst atmosphere for this film to come out.

[Precious Doll]

So, after a Fall where smaller efforts have mostly stumbled (apart from the Bergdorf crowd turning out for Judi Dench), finally what looks like a success: Lady Bird is having a huge limited opening weekend -- estimates as high as $80,000 per screen, on a par with The Big Sick back in summer. This, along with stellar reviews, at minimum puts Ronan/Metcalf/Gerwig-as-screenwriter firmly in the mix, and might make for a best picture run. Last Flag Flying, on the other hand, is...well, flagging -- scoring under $10,000 per for the three days.

We tend to use "Fall" as shorthand for when Oscar season begins, but I wonder if the window's got even smaller of late. Last year, apart from Moonlight in late October, the top-level specialty hopefuls waited for November/December. This year, the same, with Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, Call Me By Your Name and Shape off Water all opening in the next four weeks, after a rather desultory September/October. (I'm expecting all of those to score opening weekend per-screen averages more in the Lady Bird range.)

Interestingly, Call Me By Your Name opening last weekend in the U.K. on 112 screens with a pretty poor screen average. This does not bode well for it's U.S. release at least once it goes wider.

[Sabin]

post moved

[Mister Tee]

So, after a Fall where smaller efforts have mostly stumbled (apart from the Bergdorf crowd turning out for Judi Dench), finally what looks like a success: Lady Bird is having a huge limited opening weekend -- estimates as high as $80,000 per screen, on a par with The Big Sick back in summer. This, along with stellar reviews, at minimum puts Ronan/Metcalf/Gerwig-as-screenwriter firmly in the mix, and might make for a best picture run. Last Flag Flying, on the other hand, is...well, flagging -- scoring under $10,000 per for the three days.

We tend to use "Fall" as shorthand for when Oscar season begins, but I wonder if the window's got even smaller of late. Last year, apart from Moonlight in late October, the top-level specialty hopefuls waited for November/December. This year, the same, with Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, Call Me By Your Name and Shape off Water all opening in the next four weeks, after a rather desultory September/October. (I'm expecting all of those to score opening weekend per-screen averages more in the Lady Bird range.)