Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[criddic3]

and after 'Deadpool' it's clear they will recognize comic book films.

Since "Deadpool" got zero Oscar nominations, despite mentions from DGA and the Globes, this seems a leap of faith here. It is certainly possible that they could decide to vote for "Wonder Woman" as a nod to a female-directed comic book hero hit, but I'd say that's still an iffy proposition.

[ThePianist]

'The Big Sick'
'Blade Runner 2049'
'Call Me By Your Name'
'Dunkirk'
'Get Out'
'Lady Bird'
'The Post'
'The Shape of Water'
'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'
'Wonder Woman'

Fixed.

[Sabin]

Precious Doll wrote
Denis Villeneuve is also a possibilty. BR2049 may have underwhelmed at the box office but it's reviews were impressive enough and Villeneuve was singled out by many critics.

I had that impression last night. I wondered if the film could essentially pull a 'Mad Max: Fury Road.' Ultimately, I think it's central narrative is a bit too meandering and overwhelmed by visuals. I think Villeneuve's best shot is to steadily pick up traction through the critic's groups. I have no idea who they will cite. Christopher Nolan for 'Dunkirk' or Luca Guadagnino for 'Call Me By Your Name?' I could see Villeneuve picking up a citation from the Los Angeles Film Critic's Association.

At this point, my predictions for the Producer's Guild of America Awards would be:
'The Big Sick'
'Blade Runner 2049'
'Darkest Hour'
'Dunkirk'
'Get Out'
'Lady Bird'
'The Post'
'The Shape of Water'
'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'
'Wonder Woman'

'The Florida Project' could sneak in. I'm predicting 'BR2049' because Villeneuve's last two films were PGA nominees, because Scott Rudin's name on 'Lady Bird' bring s heft, because 'The Big Sick' has Apatow and is Amazon's one big push, and because 'Wonder Woman' just had such a huge impact and after 'Deadpool' it's clear they will recognize comic book films.

[Precious Doll]

Denis Villeneuve is also a possibilty. BR2049 may have underwhelmed at the box office but it's reviews were impressive enough and Villeneuve was singled out by many critics.

[ThePianist]

Joe Wright has never been nominated - in any category to date.

My bad.

I suppose It's between Spielberg and PTA then...

[Precious Doll]

Here's some more stats...

Every Best Director Lineup since 98, has had a former nominee included. (If 'The Post' flops--then I suppose a PTA or Wright?)

Joe Wright has never been nominated - in any category to date.

[ThePianist]

Here's some more stats...

Every Best Picture Winner since 'The Departed' has had a screening at either Venice, Telluride, or Cannes--and a US release date before December.

Every Best Director Lineup since 98, has had a former nominee included. (If 'The Post' flops--then I suppose PTA?)

'The Shape of Water' will become the second Fantasy film to win Best Picture. (14 Year Stat.)

How can Dunkirk win, without a Screenplay nom? (20 Year Stat.)

Three Billboards would be the first female lead driven film to win BP since 'Million Dollar Baby.'

If 'Call Me By Your Name' somehow manages a BP win--then It'll have to garner an SAG Ensemble nomination. 'Braveheart' was the last film to win Best Picture without one. Also, It would be the first Best Picture Winner to have premiered at Sundance.

[ThePianist]

I have a feeling we're all sitting on Three Billboards...

1. It had a showing at Venice and Telluride, and It's being released before December.
2. It won the TIFF Audience Award.
3. It's a timely film, with loads of raves and buzz surrounding it.
4. Fox Searchlight is backing it.
5. It's probably winning Original Screenplay too. (Which, to me, whether Adapted or Original; is probably the best precursor for what'll win BP.)
6. It's most likely going to win the SAG Ensemble.
7. It'll benefit from the current voting system. (In fact, I could definitely the film winning because of that.)

[bizarre]

Just for fun, here's my first acting predictions for 2018:

But who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in 2028?

The Republican Party will go the way of the Whig party in my fan fiction.

Always happy to share my post-WWIII territorial changes predictions because I have spreadsheets for those as well

[bizarre]

Just for fun, here's my first acting predictions for 2018:

Not that there's anything wrong with going a little too overboard by predicting 2018--but where the actual f is Rami Malek?

In a Bryan Singer film, unfortunately.

[bizarre]

Just for fun, here's my first acting predictions for 2018:

But who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in 2028?

The 2016 election was the last under the current republic and the United States as we know it will have redrawn borders within 10 years.

[ThePianist]

Here’s my Predicted BP Lineup so far, without the final nom:
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I’ve taken several big chances here. Like I said earlier, there’s bound to be more than a few ‘predicted films’ that’ll miss the lineup, like every other year. I’m not predicting The Post until It’s seen. Or, at the very least--when a fucking trailer is out. (I’m still predicting Meryl and some techs though.) Nor will I bite into Darkest Hour, because I’m starting to doubt that Oldman alone can get this film into the lineup. We still have a theatrical release for both of these films, so we’ll see I suppose. And I’m starting to think The Florida Project is running out of steam. Apparently A24 wants to push Prince in Leading, and since that’s a bit unlikely to happen--can Dafoe win, If the film has 1 other nomination; and that’s for Best Picture? Director is a possibility, Cinematography is a maybe, and Screenplay is a massive longshot unless the film somehow becomes a major contender. And finally, I seem the least worried about Get Out’s chances of being snubbed, but anything can happen.

Anyways, here’s a list of films that people are either underestimating, or just not aware of.

I, Tonya - The film has a pretty decent reception, mainly for its performances. Maybe if a few screenplay contenders drop out and It can somehow get a film editing nom--then I suppose It has a chance. Depends if newcomer studio ‘Neon’ plays their cards correctly. It’ll definitely help Janney.
Mudbound - If this was under an actual studio (let alone a major one) like ‘Fox Searchlight’, or ‘Paramount Pictures’--then there would be no doubt in my mind about it being be a locked nom. But there’s one word that holds back the films chances: NETFLIX. This is probably the first year Netflix is going all out and attempting to break the barrier of the industry bias against streaming services, and even with the limited theatrical release; I don’t think this will be their year. But who knows, with Prince out of the supporting race--there’s now an open slot for someone like Mary J. Blige to get in.
Phantom Thread - There’s a tiny possibility this could be PTA’s most accessible film. Granted, his last 2 films have been mixed in most of their receptions, and have not sat that well with the Academy besides gaining a few writing, or acting noms--the latter film being way more divisive. But If this one blows up, and is also Anderson’s most praised film since ‘There Will Be Blood’--then there’s definitely a possibility the AMPAS will welcome PTA back with open arms. If It’s really THAT good, and accessible; anything can happen.
Blade Runner 2049 - There’s been some instances where I believe people dismissed this one too quickly. Now, I’m fully aware this was a box office flop--but all the techs seem assured, and Adapted Screenplay is very likely to happen. A PGA nom seems very likely too. But besides all that, I suppose it all depends If the precursors bite into it. (Is Industry Support a Big Possibility?)

Here's some more outside/dark horse contenders, in likelihood of achieving:
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Battle of the Sexes
Murder on the Orient Express
Wonder Woman
Stronger
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Logan
Last Flag Flying
The Death of Stalin
The Greatest Showman
Detroit
The Beguiled
Coco
All The Money in the World

Mother! and Downsizing are dead in the water. No chance for either of them.

[Okri]

Just for fun, here's my first acting predictions for 2018:

But who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in 2028?

The Republican Party will go the way of the Whig party in my fan fiction.

[ThePianist]

Just for fun, here's my first acting predictions for 2018:

Not that there's anything wrong with going a little too overboard by predicting 2018--but where the actual f is Rami Malek?

[The Original BJ]

Just for fun, here's my first acting predictions for 2018:

But who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in 2028?