Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

[Sonic Youth]

Phantom Thread's trailer reminds me why I hate trailers so much. It's always the same thriller format, no matter how dull and staid the actual film may be. Make a movie about someone reading the phone book, and as long as you have that surging "A Day in the Life" music - which is cut off at the last second - then you have a routinely engaging trailer. You could make an effective "My Dinner With Andre" trailer using this format.

At the very least, this must be considered a Best Costume contender, since.... y'know.... it's about costumes.

[Big Magilla]

I kind of liked it. The secrecy behind it had me skeptical, but DDL looks good and we now have an explanation for the title. I can't get a sense of the other actors, though.

[Sabin]

The trailer for Phantom Thread just dropped. Paul Thomas Anderson makes challenging films that shouldn't lend themselves well to trailers. Except for some reason they do and one gets the impression that he takes trailers very seriously. I recall that he himself cut the trailer for Magnolia (not sure about the other films). No matter how accessible or inaccessible they proved to be, the moment the trailers for There Will Be Blood, Inherent Vice, and The Master dropped, I could not wait to see them. Phantom Thread is the first time I haven't felt that way.

[MaxWilder]

Captain Fantastic numbers are all that is needed.

I question this. Captain Fantastic was a cheap (certainly cheap-looking) indie, for which $5-6 million is viewed as successful; Stronger was a studio movie, I presume far higher-budgeted, and would need to have grossed at least in $10-20 million range to have been viewed the same. These perceptions matter.

Not to mention Stronger has extremely high-profile subject matter.

[Precious Doll]

I was thinking that DDL may get his 6th New York Film Critics from Phantom Thread. Like Jack Nicholson they clearly adore DDL.

As for the New York Best Actress award I suspect Cynthia Nixon has that sown up.

[Mister Tee]

a) I thought 2014 for actor blitzed actress out of the park. Most of the season had Felicity Jones as an easy nomination and we though Aniston would get in for Cake whereas Gyllenhaal, Spall, Isaac, and Oyelowo got left out of a pretty competitive best actor race. ETA: But yeah, 2015 and 16 were not great.

b) I think Oldman is actually a strong contender for New York or LA, actually. They both went for Firth and the year is pretty barren, as mentioned.

a) I was specifically referencing 2015/16/17 -- though the latter is not a done deal yet, we've seen most of what's on offer, and it appears an overflow crowd for lead actress (Hawkins/McDormand/Ronan/Robbie/Chastain, Winslet/Dench a bit softer but on the board, Streep still to come), and really not one lead actor I'd guarantee a spot in a good year.

Apropos of which...

b) I will admit I thought Firth was a bit of a square choice for NY and LA, and was surprised they both went for him. But my impression is that Oldman/Darkest Hour is in far weaker shape -- both because his film is not held in nearly as high regard (it's a middling 72 on Metacritic, compared to King's Speech's 88 -- we forget, that movie was REALLY well-praised), and because there are a significant number of critics who seem to actively dislike or dismiss the performance. As Mark Harris noted, there seem to be more people saying Oldman WILL win the Oscar than saying he SHOULD.

That's what makes this, for me, a deeply confounding, maybe worst-yet best actor slate. There were relatively soft slates in '06 and '07, but there we at least had one huge critical favorite each year (Whitaker/Day-Lewis) to mask the shallowness of the field. Here we have what I see as a weak front-runner, followed by a youngster many think wouldn't be contending in a normal year -- and after that, a vacuum. Maybe Day-Lewis and Hanks will charge in to change that, but from here it looks like an historically weak vintage. A possible sort-of predecessor: 1990 -- though even there Jeremy Irons was fairly universally praised (his film's commercial nose-dive had him in Fassbender/Steve Jobs territory, but critics' awards rescued him). Or maybe 1986, where Paul Newman was decently but not spectacularly reviewed -- but the rest of the field was all minor or quirky, so he won anyway on sentiment.

[Okri]

a) I thought 2014 for actor blitzed actress out of the park. Most of the season had Felicity Jones as an easy nomination and we though Aniston would get in for Cake whereas Gyllenhaal, Spall, Isaac, and Oyelowo got left out of a pretty competitive best actor race. ETA: But yeah, 2015 and 16 were not great.

b) I think Oldman is actually a strong contender for New York or LA, actually. They both went for Firth and the year is pretty barren, as mentioned.

[FilmFan720]

The fringe/handicapped best actor candidates are really crashing at the box-office. Breathe opened this weekend to less than $500 per at 300 theatres. Stronger is actually -- well, stronger -- but is finishing at about $4 million. Given neither film got any real critical support, it's hard to see how either hold up for nominations...except for how spectacularly barren the field is. If ever there was a year for some studio to look at a male-lead vehicle they were holding for Spring and say, you know what, let's give it a qualifying run, this is it. At this point, I have no idea beyond Chalamet who would win the serious critics' awards (I don't think Oldman is the kind of thing they'd go for).

In other box-office "news", The Florida Project has cooled down from its relatively strong specialty release. It's not doing horribly -- $5-6,000 per at over 100 theatres -- but it's not floating up into Moonlight/Boyhood territory, let alone Spotlight/12 Years a Slave. BJ may be right, that it's more American Honey, thus more Spirit Award than Oscar.

Don't try feel like the kind of failed campaigns that show up SAG morning (i.e. Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart) and in a super weak Oscar field might that be enough?

[Mister Tee]

It might seem like a niche statistic, but since 1990 these are the Best Supporting Actress nominees who didn't win in their year and who received their only nomination as their film's sole acting nod without Best Picture recognition (these specific criteria indicate that a successful campaign was built on the response to the performance alone, which is something you see all the time in Supporting Actor and the leading categories, though rarely here, probably due to ingrained sexist foundations for the way women characters are written when they're not leads - Lead Actress has the opposite phenomenon which speaks to the way audiences are socialised to respond to female-driven narratives):
1992 - Joan Plowright
1993 - Rosie Perez
1995 - Mare Winningham
1996 - Lauren Bacall & Barbara Hershey
2003 - Patricia Clarkson
2007 - Ruby Dee & Amy Ryan
2011 - Melissa McCarthy
2015 - Jennifer Jason Leigh

So not many. I guess what I'm trying to get across is that "featured roles" for women rarely have full narratives written around them and in this competitive year most of the contenders have that kind of character and few if any costars likely to break out in the same way.

Unless I'm mistaking your criteria, you seem to have omitted a number of supporting nominees who were their film's sole acting nominees. In fact, these non-winners were the sole nominees, period, from their films:

1992 - Miranda Richardson
1997 - Joan Cusack
1998 - Brenda Blethyn
2003 - Holly Hunter
2004- Laura Linney
2005 - Amy Adams
2007 - Cate Blanchett
2010 - Jacki Weaver
2012 - Helen Hunt

...and these were sole acting nominees without a best picture nomination:

1991 - Jessica Tandy
1993 - Winona Ryder
1996 - Joan Allen
1998 - Kathy Bates
2000 - Julie Walters
2014 - Meryl Streep

You're correct that supporting actor categories have more such sole representatives, but I don't think the situation is quite as stark as you suggest.

And, this year, both Janney and Metcalf could be joined by their leading ladies in nomination.

[Big Magilla]

Box office isn't likely to play a significant part in any of the major races this year. Aside from Dunkirk, none of the supposed major contenders has lived up to their studio's b.o. expectations.

[bizarre]

Captain Fantastic numbers are all that is needed.

I question this. Captain Fantastic was a cheap (certainly cheap-looking) indie, for which $5-6 million is viewed as successful; Stronger was a studio movie, I presume far higher-budgeted, and would need to have grossed at least in $10-20 million range to have been viewed the same. These perceptions matter.

Though, again, the category is so bereft, anything can happen. At what point do people start noticing the best actress category has been far more competitive, for several years running?

Something else interesting to note: if Hong Chau/Holly Hunter/Allison Janney/Melissa Leo/Laurie Metcalf are the most-likely fivesome at this point, it'd be a rare year in that category where 3-5 of the leading contenders could be the only acting nomination (or nomination at all) for their films. Likely-to-somewhat-likely spoilers such as Michelle Pfeiffer, Mary J. Blige and Allison Williams are also likely to be the only presence for their films in the acting categories if they make it in. I brought up Nanjiani as a dark horse candidate in my last post but it's still unlikely, so we're likely to see an odd year where Supporting Actress is largely independent from the other acting categories as it's often stocked with the second-bananas in Best Actor vehicles.

It might seem like a niche statistic, but since 1990 these are the Best Supporting Actress nominees who didn't win in their year and who received their only nomination as their film's sole acting nod without Best Picture recognition (these specific criteria indicate that a successful campaign was built on the response to the performance alone, which is something you see all the time in Supporting Actor and the leading categories, though rarely here, probably due to ingrained sexist foundations for the way women characters are written when they're not leads - Lead Actress has the opposite phenomenon which speaks to the way audiences are socialised to respond to female-driven narratives):
1992 - Joan Plowright
1993 - Rosie Perez
1995 - Mare Winningham
1996 - Lauren Bacall & Barbara Hershey
2003 - Patricia Clarkson
2007 - Ruby Dee & Amy Ryan
2011 - Melissa McCarthy
2015 - Jennifer Jason Leigh

So not many. I guess what I'm trying to get across is that "featured roles" for women rarely have full narratives written around them and in this competitive year most of the contenders have that kind of character and few if any costars likely to break out in the same way.

[bizarre]

Chappaquidick is being held until next year so Jason Clarke is gone.

Stronger is doing Captain Fantastic numbers. Breathe isn’t. This is the third year in a row where Best Actor is a barren field. Captain Fantastic numbers are all that is needed. But if for whatever reason Phantom Thread is pushed to Cannes or Tom Hanks is supporting in The Post, I have no idea who will fill the ranks. I am entirely supportive of a nomination for Get Out’s Daniel Kaluuya.

For critic’s groups, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Willem DaFoe awarded.

Hmm, if Garfield, Gyllenhaal, Hanks and Day-Lewis are out of the running... there's some iffy BO candidates around that could do well with screeners, even if the films weren't rapturously received - Harry Dean Stanton, Sam Elliott, Denzel Washington, Donald Sutherland if a release is sorted out for this year... Hugh Jackman? Kumail Nanjiani? Christian Bale's film has been snapped up by a nobody distributor that no one has ever heard of. Kaluuya could definitely surge. Maybe something out of the blue like Miles Teller in Thank You for Your Service? I've never seen a year where, for example, a 21 year-old in a gay love story and James fucking Franco playing Tommy fucking Wiseau are considered near-locks in this category. Kaluuya is great but thinking as cynically as the average white Academy member, as far as PoC leads in successfully specialty-market genre pictures from this year Nanjiani has a more classical awards-ready character arc and has the kind of Oscar clip (his "hard to be funny when your girlfriend's in a coma" close-up) that Kaluuya doesn't, not to mention he's an omnipresent comic figure on TV these days and the film already has traction for Hunter and the screenplay (possibly Romano too in the fractured Supporting Actor category, wouldn't surprise me to see him spoil over contenders with unique caveats such as Hammer and Mendelsohn).

Regarding another category, has The Death of Stalin secured a US release date yet? If IFC pushes it to 2018 Adapted Screenplay is going to be worse off than Actor.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I question this. Captain Fantastic was a cheap (certainly cheap-looking) indie, for which $5-6 million is viewed as successful; Stronger was a studio movie, I presume far higher-budgeted, and would need to have grossed at least in $10-20 million range to have been viewed the same. These perceptions matter.

You’re not kidding. I had no idea Stronger had a budget of THIRTY million dollars! I am now inclined to rush out to see the poor thing.

[Mister Tee]

Captain Fantastic numbers are all that is needed.

I question this. Captain Fantastic was a cheap (certainly cheap-looking) indie, for which $5-6 million is viewed as successful; Stronger was a studio movie, I presume far higher-budgeted, and would need to have grossed at least in $10-20 million range to have been viewed the same. These perceptions matter.

Though, again, the category is so bereft, anything can happen. At what point do people start noticing the best actress category has been far more competitive, for several years running?

[Sabin]

Chappaquidick is being held until next year so Jason Clarke is gone.

Stronger is doing Captain Fantastic numbers. Breathe isn’t. This is the third year in a row where Best Actor is a barren field. Captain Fantastic numbers are all that is needed. But if for whatever reason Phantom Thread is pushed to Cannes or Tom Hanks is supporting in The Post, I have no idea who will fill the ranks. I am entirely supportive of a nomination for Get Out’s Daniel Kaluuya.

For critic’s groups, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Willem DaFoe awarded.