Both Dench and Streep are Harvey's Girls this year. If last year is any indication, his nominating prowess is weakening. He doesn't have the TIFF Audience Award to back him up this year and he's once again ignoring a number of the critics groups that have supported him in the past. What's more telling is that he's usually doing better than expected by this point, but with a weak showing at Spirit and Satellite Awards, I'd say he has his work cut out for him. Streep won't campaign, but Dench has been. As much as critics will undoubtedly love Streep in A:OC, Philomena has a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes (average 7.
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and while A:OC hasn't opened yet, it's been screened at festivals and has a 75% with a 6.2 average rating at RT. A:OC isn't doing well with critics and unless Harvey really puts himself behind Philomena, The Butler or Fruitvale Station, he may find himself without a pony.
And Tee, don't count Philomena as a mediocre movie (as specified above). And I've seen Saving Mr. Banks. Thompson is definitely in this thing and her film is far better than it has any right to be considering how much of it has been altered from historical evidence.