Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

How about jumping it one dimension further and saying that the supporting actor slot nobody's happy about goes to Riz Ahmed?

ksrymy wrote
I'd like to echo this one. Same with Gyllenhaal.

Were Jake Gyllenhaal nominated for Nightcrawler, I'm not sure it would count as a surprise at this point. Best Actor is a six person race. Gyllenhaal has Golden Globe and SAG nominations for this flashy change-of-pace performance and he's also a previously nominated actor. I think he has a very good chance of being nominated.

When you mentioned Gyllenhaal, my mind went immediately to Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart, who was nominated for absolutely nothing before getting an Oscar nomination. In 2009, there were four supporting actresses nominated for both Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild Awards (Cruz, Farmiga, Kendrick, and Mo'Nique), Julianne Moore (somewhat predicted) was nominated for a Golden Globe and Diane Kruger (whom nobody thought about nominating before that moment) was nominated for a SAG award. In the end, they settled for the female counterpoint to a Best Actor nominee from a film that's basically a vehicle for him. Obviously, there are major differences, but if they like Nightcrawler enough to nominate Jake Gyllenhaal, then Rene Russo would be a perfect surprise nominee that should be no surprise to anyone.

Precious Doll wrote:Having failed so score a Globe or SAG nomination I will go with Renee Russo as a possible surprise nominee and well deserved one at that for Nightcrawler.

I'd like to echo this one. Same with Gyllenhaal.

I still feel like Best Actress could still produce a totally random, unexpected nominee. A lot of people seem to be jumping on to the Jennifer Aniston bandwagon because of her Globe and SAG nods -- and I'm not denying she suddenly has become a contender in a way she wasn't at all three days ago. But her movie had virtually zero buzz up until literally this minute, and it still has yet to open (I still can't even find out WHEN that's supposed to happen), which still makes her a very iffy prospect to me. And it's hard to know if her CV -- huge level of fame, but not exactly much highly respected acting work, at least on film -- will limit her the way it has plenty of actors before (Jim Carrey & Cameron Diaz on numerous occasions), or if it will make this work seem like more of a breakthrough (as it did for many lightweight actresses suddenly receiving Oscar nods for more dramatic performances).

Most of us have pegged Cotillard/Immigrant and Adams as the most likely prospects, but could Swank still pop up? Cotillard's Two Days performance? Emily Blunt or Helen Mirren from the Comedy Globe slate? Somebody few people are even considering, like Gugu Mbatha-Raw or Jenny Slate or Tilda Swinton?

Having failed so score a Globe or SAG nomination I will go with Renee Russo as a possible surprise nominee and well deserved one at that for Nightcrawler.

My probable lost cause this year is Brendan Gleeson for Best Actor for Calvary. He won the Boston Critics and has nominations from a couple of other critics groups, San Diego and either St. Louis or Detroit.

His nomination along with Cumberbatch, Redmayne and either Oyelowo or Spall would make a 4-1 British or British/Irish race against Keaton, who would likely win, though a surprise win for Gleeson would be even sweeter.

Here is a thread to list our one prediction of what we think will be the biggest surprise for an Oscar nomination or lack thereof when the nominations are announced.

Mine is that Boyhood will perform so strongly that it will bring a Best Actor nomination for Ellar Coltrane.