2012 Oscar Nominations

For the films of 2012
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by ITALIANO »

Big Magilla wrote:Four of the five would likely be Lincoln; Les Misérables ; Zero Dark Thirty and Argo, which were the four most talked about films during the voting period. Life of Pi; Silver Linings Playbook and Amour would all be vying for the fifth slot and in a perfect world Amour would take it.

So we sould have had three Best Picture nominees without a corresponding Best Director nod... And I find this very, very difficult honestly.
No, it's more possible that the five nominees would have been Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Silver Lining Playbook and one from this group: Beasts, Amour, Les Miserables (and Zero Dark Thirty, though less probably).
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

Four of the five would likely be Lincoln; Les Misérables ; Zero Dark Thirty and Argo, which were the four most talked about films during the voting period. Life of Pi; Silver Linings Playbook and Amour would all be vying for the fifth slot and in a perfect world Amour would take it.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by rudeboy »

So if there were five nominees this year who would they be? Clearly Life of Pi, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook would be up there. Argo too - the director miss is fluky, but I don't think the film itself would have anything to worry about. For the fifth slot things get a little hazy but I suspect the passion behind Les Miserables would have squeaked it past the more critically-favoured picks and the Tarantino movie.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by ITALIANO »

criddic3 wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:
criddic3 wrote:, if Spielberg and Lee split the votes.

And why should they split the votes? Let's leave this to the other Oscar boards, please...
You don't think this is possible? It's fun to speculate on how the vote will go, especially when you have no clear favorite. Lincoln and Life of Pi are only one nomination apart in terms of most categories, suggesting they have the most support among the membership.
Ah ok. So they could split votes just because they are the two frontrunners.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by criddic3 »

ITALIANO wrote:
criddic3 wrote:, if Spielberg and Lee split the votes.

And why should they split the votes? Let's leave this to the other Oscar boards, please...
You don't think this is possible? It's fun to speculate on how the vote will go, especially when you have no clear favorite. Lincoln and Life of Pi are only one nomination apart in terms of most categories, suggesting they have the most support among the membership. It is reasonable to assume that neither would get an all out majority between them, leaving room for one of the others to sneak past them to a victory. On the other hand, this doesn't seem to happen very often. At least not in the directing category. If Spielberg didn't already have two, or Lee hadn't won before, it might be easier to say who would gain momentum in the final weeks. Or maybe i'm just trying to make it more exciting for myself by imagining these scenarios. :)
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by OscarGuy »

Tripp...I honestly think you're just splitting hairs. ;)
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by FilmFan720 »

I think Spielberg and Haneke are the two most likely to vote split, though, because they both have that white hair and beard look.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by ITALIANO »

criddic3 wrote:, if Spielberg and Lee split the votes.

And why should they split the votes? Let's leave this to the other Oscar boards, please...
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by criddic3 »

Ben Affleck's turn-around happened with Hollywoodland, a signal that he was ready to take his career more seriously and stop trying to become an action star. So far, he's delivered on that promise both in front of and behind the camera.

I can see Haneke winning, but only in a scenario where no other directing nominee claims a majority of the votes. In other words, if Spielberg and Lee split the votes. Of course, the same could be said of David O. Russell and Silver Linings Playbook. More likely, Haneke has a better shot at the screenplay award. Yet neither category offers him a clear chance, as he is up against some popular competition.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by Okri »

Haneke, obviously :D

I'll agree with you, criddic, on Nina Hoss, who was terrific in Barbara - a fascinating film from a really intriguing director.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Oh, absolutely. Lincoln also appeals far more to what I perceive to be the Academy's taste than The Social Network ever could.

That being said, Ben Affleck has been handling his "snub" like a class act. There is a world of good will going towards him right now, and honestly? Why not? This guy was a fucking joke six years ago, a tabloid blurb, a Razzie magnet. Even worse: I doubt there was doubt in anybody's mind how much he was responsible for the success of Good Will Hunting. Regardless of how much input William Goldman gave Ben & Matt, Matt was the brains behind that script. He had to be! Putting aside how far he's come, what I find most interesting about the three films that Ben Affleck has directed isn't that they're good movies. It's that for the most part, audiences AND serious film critics seem to agree "Yeah, these are good movies." Gone Baby Gone approaches "film"-status, but The Town and Argo? They seem to be largely embraced by serious film critics as strong entertainment. This bilateral support from different audiences (not to mention inside Hollywood) hasn't really landed the same way with, say, George Clooney's directing outings. And then he misses out on his Oscar nomination and he's made of good humor and gratitude nonetheless.

It wouldn't surprise me at this point if Argo sweeps the PGA, SAG, and DGA, and if it wins the "Eddie" too.

Again, that leaves the question: who wins Best Director?
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by Greg »

Sabin wrote:What's strange to me about Lincoln's "falling chances" (which I'm not sure I buy) is that Steven Spielberg has yet to win a single directing award for this film.
Remember a couple of years ago when The Social Network swept the critics awards, The King's Speech swept the guild awards, and The King's Speech prevailed at the Oscars? The guild awards are the only strong predictors of the Oscars, probably becasue there are no voting AMPAS members in the critics groups, but a fair number in the guild organizations. If Spielberg wing the DGA, the director awards from the critics groups will not matter.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by Sabin »

criddic3 wrote
However, I have seen Zero Dark Thirty, and I agree with those who say the film doesn't directly champion the use of Enhanced Interrogation Techniques. It, more or less, leaves it up to the viewer to decide how much influence they actually had on the hunt for Bin laden, although it is undeniable that some information was acquired this way. If Bigelow was left off due to people not voting for her, in response to this controversy, that is a shame. The film is a tough-minded, pretty straightforward account that doesn't overtly politicize the events. I think that makes it a better film, but others seem to believe that taking a bolder stance would have improved its value. Of course, those people wanted it to reflect their own views. Had it embraced a more conservative view over a liberal one, they would would be making an even bigger fuss over it. That this controversy could possibly lead to affecting the Oscar race like this is unfair, I think. Especially when Kathryn Bigelow does not personally seem to be an advocate for the techniques causing these discussions.
I think the film is a mess and it succeeds in giving both sides something to bitch about. Without specifically saying "liberal" or "conservative" anti-torture/enhanced interrogation advocates can be angry because it definitely states clearly that the use of torture/enhanced interrogation lead directly to the killing of Osama Bin Laden while pro-torture/enhanced interrogation advocates can object to the details, i.e. bullshit like "Oh, well it didn't happen like this, there were more people than Maya!" (no shit) Beyond this, Zero Dark Thirty presents IMO an unflattering vision of these brave men and women. Nobody in the film is terribly likable and it's hard to feel good about the mission at all.

What I'm trying to say is that Marco will dislike both what he agrees and disagrees with in Zero Dark Thirty.
criddic3 wrote[/]
On to the nominations themselves: Lincoln seems very vulnerable to an upset, as some have pointed out. They could give Spielberg his third Oscar, while giving Picture to Argo or (if there is a backlash against the backlash), Zero Dark Thirty. Rolotamasi may be on to something with Silver Linings Playbook being the first comedy since Annie Hall that could make it (though Shakespeare in Love was something of a romantic comedy, too). Of course any of the nominees could in theory take Best Picture.

I think Zero Dark Thirty is done. Even if Kathryn Bigelow wins the DGA, I still don't see it winning. She's been handling this controversy like John Kerry. Just miserably. Silver Linings Playbook is opening wide this weekend and nothing would make me happier than to see it win. Annie Hall lost the Golden Globe for Musical or Comedy as well, but that was also a different era. David O. Russell cannot win the DGA because he's not nominated and the film likely will not win the PGA against the likes of Argo and Lincoln. It really needs the SAG for Best Ensemble if it's going to happen. If David O. Russell was a stronger contender to win an award for writing, I'd be more optimistic about its chances.

What's strange to me about Lincoln's "falling chances" (which I'm not sure I buy) is that Steven Spielberg has yet to win a single directing award for this film. Warren Beatty was a stronger bet to win Best Director than Best Picture. Richard Attenborough (I think) was just as sure a bet as Gandhi. But Steven Spielberg's directing has barely been brought up in conversation. It's possible the only award he will win for directing will be the Oscar. So, if Argo is going to win Best Picture and Lincoln is going to miss Best Director, who takes it? David O. Russell for this romantic comedy? Michael Haneke for a Michael Haneke film? Benh Zeitlin? Ang Lee won the Las Vegas Society Film Critics award. That puts him one up on Spielberg.

criddic3 wrote[/]
On Riva: OK, I agree she was very good. But I have to confess that this gushing is a bit of over-hype. Maybe it's because of her career and status overseas, coupled with her performance and the smallish nature of her film. Do all of you think she has given the performance of the century here, as a woman dying after suffering from strokes? She lies in bed about as much as Watts does. I agree she has more to do, but why should she be the runaway winner here? Maybe I'm reacting to the somber nature of the film, the desperation at the end. All played quite well, but I'm feeling like the Titanic rolled in again. In that year, I split my Best Picture decision between the James Cameron film and L.A. Confidential by giving one director and one picture. I wouldn't be unhappy if Chastain or Lawrence won. They both do good work. And why hasn't another fine foreign-language actress, Nina Hoss, gotten any play this year for the film Barbara? It's an understated, really nice performance.

I think that Riva is getting the proper amount of attention. You say that she's confined to her bed and suffering through a series of strokes. Because Michael Haneke's vision is so alarming at times, it's the warmth of Trintignant (robbed!) and Riva that make it an almost cleansing experience to watch the film, and with a role that doesn't allow for much outside of what this poor woman goes through, Riva gives you the sense that she is a woman who is terrifyingly slipping away before our eyes. I think she's integral to the success of one of the year's biggest artistic successes. I'm all about Silver Linings Playbook but Riva should take it.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by criddic3 »

P.S. @criddic3, I was originally being cheeky, but I genuinely have never understood the saying "Sympathy for the Devil". I do not base my sympathy for someone on whether they are good or bad, but on whether something bad has happened to them. It seems we should end our discussion here, out of respect for the other members of this board. It is clear we have very different views on morality, politics, and entertainment. If you do end up seeing ZERO DARK THIRTY, I would be interested to hear what you think. Your conservative views would certainly bring a different perspective from what I have so far heard in regards to this film.
I agree. We'd just go 'round in circles. However, I have seen Zero Dark Thirty, and I agree with those who say the film doesn't directly champion the use of Enhanced Interrogation Techniques. It, more or less, leaves it up to the viewer to decide how much influence they actually had on the hunt for Bin laden, although it is undeniable that some information was acquired this way. If Bigelow was left off due to people not voting for her, in response to this controversy, that is a shame. The film is a tough-minded, pretty straightforward account that doesn't overtly politicize the events. I think that makes it a better film, but others seem to believe that taking a bolder stance would have improved its value. Of course, those people wanted it to reflect their own views. Had it embraced a more conservative view over a liberal one, they would would be making an even bigger fuss over it. That this controversy could possibly lead to affecting the Oscar race like this is unfair, I think. Especially when Kathryn Bigelow does not personally seem to be an advocate for the techniques causing these discussions.

On to the nominations themselves: Lincoln seems very vulnerable to an upset, as some have pointed out. They could give Spielberg his third Oscar, while giving Picture to Argo or (if there is a backlash against the backlash), Zero Dark Thirty. Rolotamasi may be on to something with Silver Linings Playbook being the first comedy since Annie Hall that could make it (though Shakespeare in Love was something of a romantic comedy, too). Of course any of the nominees could in theory take Best Picture.

On Riva: OK, I agree she was very good. But I have to confess that this gushing is a bit of over-hype. Maybe it's because of her career and status overseas, coupled with her performance and the smallish nature of her film. Do all of you think she has given the performance of the century here, as a woman dying after suffering from strokes? She lies in bed about as much as Watts does. I agree she has more to do, but why should she be the runaway winner here? Maybe I'm reacting to the somber nature of the film, the desperation at the end. All played quite well, but I'm feeling like the Titanic rolled in again. In that year, I split my Best Picture decision between the James Cameron film and L.A. Confidential by giving one director and one picture. I wouldn't be unhappy if Chastain or Lawrence won. They both do good work. And why hasn't another fine foreign-language actress, Nina Hoss, gotten any play this year for the film Barbara? It's an understated, really nice performance.
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Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations

Post by Sabin »

I would predict Riva today as well. The only thing that could dissuade me would be Chastain winning the SAG. If that happens, then clearly voters see something in her performance that I cannot. If Lawrence wins the SAG, I'll still go out on a limb and predict Riva. It's simply a matter of getting voters to see Amour, and I think now they will.
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