Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

On the one hand, I was wrong. On the other, when you guys see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, you'll wish I was right.

Allen
Hazanavicius
Payne
Spielberg
Taylor

Woody Allen
Michael Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne
Steve Spielberg
Tate Taylor

I could come up with all sorts of reasons why Tate Taylor won't be nominated by the DGA, but the truth is I can't bring myself to predict him.

So, hopefully through the force of my excluding him, it won't happen.

Like the rest of the race, this guild should have a predictable core -- Hazanavicius, Scorsese and Payne -- but the fringes are variable. I don't think this is where Malick shows up even if he is an AMPAS candidate -- Tree of Life is a classic lone director candidate, who MIGHT make the best picture list solely because of the expanded roster. Such folk don't usually show up on a DGA list. Contrarily, Tate Taylor is the sort who can make this list because he has best picture heat, but then won't make the Academy's best director cut. And Spielberg can turn up here just because he's got so many buddies in the guild, but that won't necessarily confirm his status for an Oscar nod.

All that said, my feint at a DGA prediction:

Michel Hazanavicius
Martin Scorsese
Alexander Payne
Bennett Miller
Tate Taylor

...with Spielberg and Woody Allen as the strongest alternates, and a great likelihood the Oscar list only mildly lines up with this.

Tomas Alfredson
Michael Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne
Martin Scorsese
Steven Spielberg

The only sure thing here is Hazavicius

Alternates: Woody Allen; Stephen Daldry; Bennett Miller; Terrence Malick

Woody Allen
Michael Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne
Martin Scorsese
Tate Taylor

Quick, we only have a few more hours! My predictions:

Woody Allen
Michel Hazanavicius
Bennett Miller
Alexander Payne
Martin Scorsese

RU: Steven Spielberg, replacing Miller. I was predicting the opposite until this morning. Was that a mistake? We'll see... Maybe he'll replace Woody instead.

I'm not totally discounting Terrence Malick yet, but I think it may be time to let this cause go.