Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

The Original BJ wrote:I haven't been the best at anticipating the Academy's affection for Stephen Daldry films OR Sandra Bullock...but having seen Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, I'm not as sold on Sandra Bullock's chances as web consensus seems to be. She has a fairly reserved part, and unless the movie becomes a big hit, and she's just SO well-liked by Hollywood that she can now get nominated for anything remotely serious, I'm not sure enough people will be THAT excited by her work here. (I'd definitely side with what I assume Mister Tee will argue with respect to her candidacy -- is she REALLY the kind of actress who needs a Supporting Oscar nomination?)

There's no WAY Tom Hanks places, though -- he's barely even in the movie. Max von Sydow's chances are better -- supporting actor seems the haziest of any of the acting categories, and if it ends up being a weak slate, why wouldn't some voters just push for another nod for the legend? But, frankly, it wouldn't shock me if he didn't enter the conversation either, if there are enough interesting candidates.

Are you in some way constrained from offering a full take on the film? Because your throwaway comments on it have piqued my interest, being the only first-hand (not routed through publicist) response I've heard, and I'd love a fuller reaction. By the way, why are you in on all these early screenings? -- SAG Nominating Committee, or just knowing the right people?

Most of the web buzz on Extremely Loud and War Horse remains PR-generated (with a dollop of "the Academy always loves these kind of films"). Same with the Iron Lady -- right now, bloggers are chiming in with "Meryl's Oscar picture", but, since most went in with that stance, I'd like to hear some actual critics' takes on it before I start slotting it in anywhere. The Narrative remains the most pernicious force in the Oscar world today.

I haven't seen any of these movies, so I'm just going in blind.

I haven't been the best at anticipating the Academy's affection for Stephen Daldry films OR Sandra Bullock...but having seen Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, I'm not as sold on Sandra Bullock's chances as web consensus seems to be. She has a fairly reserved part, and unless the movie becomes a big hit, and she's just SO well-liked by Hollywood that she can now get nominated for anything remotely serious, I'm not sure enough people will be THAT excited by her work here. (I'd definitely side with what I assume Mister Tee will argue with respect to her candidacy -- is she REALLY the kind of actress who needs a Supporting Oscar nomination?)

There's no WAY Tom Hanks places, though -- he's barely even in the movie. Max von Sydow's chances are better -- supporting actor seems the haziest of any of the acting categories, and if it ends up being a weak slate, why wouldn't some voters just push for another nod for the legend? But, frankly, it wouldn't shock me if he didn't enter the conversation either, if there are enough interesting candidates.

Best Picture nominees past five are italicized. Updated: 29 Nov 2009

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
Take Shelter
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Young Adult

Best Director
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Steven Spielberg - War Horse

Best Actor
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Actress
Viola Davis - The Help
Elizabeth Olson - Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Christoph Waltz - Carnage

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - Take Shelter
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Take Shelter
Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse

This is where I'm at right now. I'm pretty positive about The Artist, The Descendants, and The Help, but The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse are in a revolving door with Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Moneyball.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
War Horse

Best Director
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Tate Taylor, The Help

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Moneyball
War Horse

Didn't see a thread specifically for this.

I'll just do acting for now. Ranked in order of likelihood of nominations:

BEST ACTOR
1 George Clooney, The Descendants
2 Brad Pitt, Moneyball
3 Jean Dujardin, The Artist
4 Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
5 Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

6 Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
7 Thomas Horn, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8 Michael Fassbender, Shame
9 Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
10 Woody Harrelson, Rampart

BEST ACTRESS
1 Viola Davis, The Help
2 Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
3 Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
4 Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5 Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

6 Charlize Theron, Young Adult
7 Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
8 Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
9 Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
10 Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1 Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2 Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3 Albert Brooks, Drive
4 Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
5 Nick Nolte, Warrior

6 Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
7 John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
8 Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
9 Jonah Hill, Moneyball
10 Ben Kingsley, Hugo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1 Octavia Spencer, The Help
2 Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
3 Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4 Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5 Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

6 Jessica Chastain, The Help
7 Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
8 Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
9 Carey Mulligan, Shame
10 Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter