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Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:17 pm
by OscarGuy
I think the one thing standing in the way of True Grit is history. The CAS gave their award to No Country for Old Men, but the Academy gave it to Bourne Ultimatum.
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:56 pm
by Sabin
I originally thought this would be the easiest to call, but now it seems like an exciting three-way race. The King's Speech and Salt are out, but the manner in which Inception, The Social Network, and True Grit are mixed make for an interesting contrasted group. Sadly, The Social Network is probably out. No effects nomination. The film is a fascinating aural experience.
Inception and True Grit. The film that has the most to mix seems to win. In 2008, I thought that would point to The Dark Knight, but in truth there was just as much in Slumdog to mix together. True Grit has the wind and the snow. But Inception is the louder experience and it's the likely winner. I started out being rather certain that this was Nolan's film's to lose. Now I have no idea.
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:45 pm
by Mister Tee
The nominees:
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
What do we know about this category? They like musicals and loud action movies -- among the latter, they'll even nominate ones that suck (hello, Salt!). And sometimes -- though not as often as they used to -- they'll just go for the movie that's winning everything else, even if it has no particular sonic excellence (most recently, Slumdog Millionaire).
Drop Salt. Any support it might have had will be siphoned by the far more liked Inception.
The rest are all, I guess, in the race.
True Grit actually won at CAS the other night, and got the extra-credit sound editing nomination, so this might be a spot it surprises us.
The Social Network won the dialogue editing prize from tha other sound group last night, and some may remember Eisenberg & Timberlake shouting over the loud music.
The King's Speech is about sound, more or less, plus it has people standing in front of microphones alot of the time. Also: best picture (see Slumdog).
But Inception still seems to fit the profile best. Summer action movies that are highly regarded (and this one is regarded to the tune of a best picture nod) most definitely win sound editing, and the most popular (Speed, The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum) take this as well. $300 million domestic says Inception.