2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

[Sabin]

Ouch!

The numbers are coming in and Scott Pilgrim did worse than expected, falling behind Inception for fifth place. With a budget of $60 mil and countless more in P&A, its $10 mil take is a huge disappointment. I will say that everybody that I know who has seen it is planning on seeing it again and again so it may prove to be slightly more successful in its theatrical run than Kick-Ass and do steady numbers, but the likelihood of it recouping theatrically is slight.

The Expendables brought in $35 mil. It cost $80 mil to make, and despite what can only be presumed to be a staggering second weekend drop, will likely make it back and stand as Stallone's biggest hit since what? Cliffhanger? I expect it to end up with $90 - $100 mil.

Eat Pray Love grabbed $23 mil. With a $60 mil budget, I expect it to survive next weekend with a 30-?% drop. It could very well end up between $80 - $90 mil. Although Julia Roberts is clearly not what she used to be, she is still the headliner of two successful, potentially $100+ mil grossing films this year.

The Other Guys fell 50% for $18 mil. On a $100 mil budget, it currently stands at $70 mil, and should continue beyond $100 as there are no comedies of its sort on the horizon.

With another soft 38% drop, Inception grabbed $11 mil raising its cum to $248. With a reported budget of $160 and countless in advertising, it has clearly broken into the realm of rock solid profits. It has already almost made another $100 mil worldwide.

Despicable Me continues to perform well with $222 mil. On a $69 mil budget, that's a very solid run that alongside How to Train Your Dragon will not threaten PIXAR's standing as top dog, but can stand as franchise building.

Step-Up 3D fell almost 60% with $6.5 mil. Its total is now at $30 mil, but with a budget of just that, it should be considered a solid summer double.

Salt fell 41% with $6 mil and now stands at $103 mil. With a budget of $110 mil, it's not as big as some were expecting but is nothing to sneer at either. It's There is nobody that can do what Angelina Jolie can do right now. She can open an action film and get Oscar nominations. It will end up making slightly less than Wanted and substantially less than Mr. & Mrs. Smith.

Rounding out the Top Ten is Dinner for Schmucks with $6 mil, coming in at $59 mil. On a $69 mil budget, it should end up breaking even. The studios played their cards correctly in pushing this back to where they did, because it's certainly not one of the disasters of the summer. Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore is though taking in another $4 mil even at 3D prices. It stands at $35 mil on a mystifying $85 mil budget!

Just hovering below the Top Ten, Toy Story 3 just crossed $400 mil domestically. Worldwide, it is hovering $50 mil under one billion. That's unreal.

[Sabin]

The Expendables opens first with $13.5 mil on Friday. Then Eat Pray Love mil with $8.5. Then The Other Guys with $5.5 mil. Now, The Expendables isn't getting great word of mouth but it should sustain throughout the weekend. Eat Pray Love will maintain a little better. I see The Expendables picking up $30 - $35 mil and Eat Pray Love $25 - $30 mil.

The Other Guys will end up with about $15 - $17 mil, and probably round out its run with close to $100 mil. That'll justify its huge budget and P&A campaign.

The real story though is Scott Pilgrim grabbing less than $5 mil. Is this Kick-Ass all over again? Are people fed up with Michael Cera? Is there no market for comic book movies without spandex? Or is any form of hipster counter-programming doomed to fail? I see Scott Pilgrim kicking ass in the long run (as will Kick-Ass) but this one took me a bit by surprise. I thought it could edge out fading stars Stallone and Roberts fairly easily.

Wow.

[rolotomasi99]

It will be very interesting to see which of the three new films will emerge on top this weekend. Each film represents a different type of movie goer and each film has its own set of built-in fans.

I think EAT PRAY LOVE has the largest built-in fanbase and the best chance of cross-over appeal. This book is wildly loved, Julia Roberts wants to show she still has "it", and hotshot writer/director Ryan Murphy is trying to break into film (we will just ignore the misfire of RUNNING WITH SCISSORS). I think anything under $30 m this weekend would be seen as a disappointment, and that is around what it will probably do.
For whatever reason, folks still like Roberts, especially in this genre. This summer has not had many romantic comedies so I think even those who have not read the book are interested. The exotic locales, beautiful scenery, and more introspective nature of the character will also pull in those who might otherwise not see rom-coms.
I think ultimately it will make around $90 m. The reviews seem to indicate the comedy part seems to be lacking in this film. After a strong opening weekend, interest will fade quickly.

On the exact opposite of the spectrum, you have THE EXPENDABLES. While this film is not a sequel, remake, or adaptation, it comes with a huge built-in fanbase due to having practically every action star ever in it at some level. It is basically the IT'S A MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD WORLD of action films.
While the internet chatter for this film has been defeaning before it was even made, I am not sure if we have another SNAKES ON A PLANE on our hands. Just being talked about on the internet is not a guarantee of huge ticket sales. I also think the R rating might keep the teenage boys who want to see the film from buying a ticket (though they will find a way to see the film).
A $25 m opening weekend seems possible with a $75 m total tally.

There were three films from the year 2010 that had fanboys really excited. Two of them (KICK-ASS and INCEPTION) have been released, and the other two (SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD and TRON LEGACY) are coming soon. Much like the first two films, I think we can see one of the next two films being a huge mainstream success while the other is unable to break out of the fanboy ghetto.
SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD is the film I want to be tops at the box-office, but I know it is just too "different" to find a large mainstream audience in theatres. It will probably be the type of film people check out later on DVD and becomes endlessly watched in dorm rooms.
SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD is actually the perfect compromise to any stereotypical hetero couples wanting to see a movie this weekend. You have the rom-com part for the ladies and the action-video games for the fellas. It could also benefit from young folks wanting to see THE EXPENDABLES who buy a ticket for the PG-13 film and sneak into the R movie.
I can only imagine a $15 m opening with $50 m overall. I really hope I am wrong and the numbers are higher, but it just seems like a film that you either get or you look at with absolute puzzlement.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1281715071

[rolotomasi99]

After three surprising weeks on top, INCEPTION will be relinquishing its crown to one of the two new films this weekend.

I think THE OTHER GUYS has the slight edge. This summer has been a desert for comedies, which is why GROWN-UPS has done so well. I think despite its odd concept, people went to see DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS cause they were hungry for a good laugh. From the tepid reviews I have been seeing, it looks like folks will get the kind of humor they are looking for in the cop-buddy spoof. I say it will have a $30 m opening, and if word of mouth is good could go on to somewhere slightly north of $100 m.

STEP UP 3 is basically the third version of the same movie. Its built in audience and 3-D prices could help it push past THE OTHER GUYS, but I think ultimately it will come in just slightly second. Somewhere close to $30 m for the opening and then $70 m final tally.

INCEPTION will continue to ease less than 50%, making around $18 m in its fourth week. I am still not sure it can pass $300 m, and may have to settle for around $275 m.

[Sonic Youth]

The instant take on this from the box-office analysis guild will be that the gay thing just didn't sell to Real America.

The ads that aired on cable networks like TNT and Food Network completely skirted around the gay thing. They didn't really sell the movie as anything, really. My mom is an avid Food Network viewer, and she had seen several ads for it, but she had to ask me what it was about because she couldn't tell from the ads.

I don't blame her:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yY3gDIjU32Q

The television ads are abysmal. Quick cut, quick cut, quick cut! The way it's edited, I have absolutely no idea what anyone's saying and Mark Ruffalo's mumbling doesn't help.

[dws1982]

The instant take on this from the box-office analysis guild will be that the gay thing just didn't sell to Real America.

The ads that aired on cable networks like TNT and Food Network completely skirted around the gay thing. They didn't really sell the movie as anything, really. My mom is an avid Food Network viewer, and she had seen several ads for it, but she had to ask me what it was about because she couldn't tell from the ads.

[Mister Tee]

The Kids Are All Right has pulled in another $3.4 M from 847 theaters for a total of just under $10 M

Which is, unfortunately, tantamount to hitting a serious wall. Those who were hoping Kids would follow a Little Miss Sunshine trajectory -- do significant mainstream business -- had seen it hitting around $5 million with this expansion. It's upward limit is now severely truncated -- somewhere from 20 to 30 million most likely, well short of what the studio hoped a week or two ago.

The instant take on this from the box-office analysis guild will be that the gay thing just didn't sell to Real America. But I'll keep contending the rush to expand before genuine word of mouth can kick in is what hurts these indies most. Just because all your Internet friends know about the movie doesn't mean the populace at large does. And a little film like this needs that kind of awareness to do truly strong business.

[OscarGuy]

Inception managed the top spot for a third week, beating out Schmucks by about $4 M. It's 35.6% drop in its third week was second only to the 34.4% drop of Despicable Me, both films proving to be hits and both edging closer to $200 M, which should be accomplished either before or during the next weekend.

The Kids Are All Right has pulled in another $3.4 M from 847 theaters for a total of just under $10 M

[rolotomasi99]

So the big question is can INCEPTION go for the top a third time. I think it is pretty iffy, but it does not face much competition. After its first weekend, it made around $38 m over the weekend and then close to $42 m over the weekend. This second week it made around $24 m so a weekend of $28 m seems pretty likely.

The big question is can any of the three new films top $28 m.

DINNER FOR SHMUCKS seems like it will make in the $20 m range. The reviews have been kind of mixed and the plot seems a little big bizarre for the dumb audience type that the humor is aimed at. If it has enough laughs, word of mouth could send it $70 m.

DOGS AND CATS 2 I hope will befall the same fate as MARMADUKE. The original was not a monster hit like ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS, and often kids films released in August do not do that well. Plus families are still happy to go see DESPICABLE ME and TOY STORY 3 again. Maybe a $25 m opening and a $70 m total, though I am hoping for a flop.

Finally we have Zac Efron and his gorgeous arms starring in a very strange looking movie about a young man playing catch with the ghost of his little brother. It seems very strange but the teen girls and middle-aged women who love Efron might keep this from being a total flop. $15 m opening and $60 m total.

I think SALT may ease less than 50% for maybe a $20 m second weekend. Hopefully it will be able to pass $100 m. I want more action films with strong women at the helm.

[OscarGuy]

I've seen advertising for The Kids Are All Right everywhere, even on imdb's main page. That tells me Focus is doing exceedingly well with it...

[Mister Tee]

Further down the chart, take note of The Kids Are All Right -- now in 200 theatres, still doing $13,000 per. There may eventually be a wall for it to hit, but it's navigating the first rounds extremely well. Which increases the likelihood it makes the Oscar ten.



Edited By Mister Tee on 1280083604

[Sabin]

Well, I was wrong.

A 30% drop is the best that Nolan could have hoped for. Inception is doing great. I'm a little surprised that the drop wasn't steeper, that more people weren't warned or turned off, but good for Nolan.

And good for Jolie. It may not be as big as Inception, but the summer is turning rather lopsided with tail-end hits, and Salt seems like it's going to be remembered as a solid performer if not straight-up hit.

[anonymous1980]

I, for one, am glad Inception is doing extremely well. Perhaps that sends a message to the studio that summer blockbusters need not be dumbed down in order to be successful.

[OscarGuy]

Estimates are in and Inception dropped 30.7% over last weekend with $43.5 M, a sizable holdover. Salt comes in just behind Inception with $36.5 M.

Not a bad performance for either film.

[rolotomasi99]

I second Sabin's take on why some people (mostly women in my belief) do not like Jolie. She is seen as a husband stealer from America's sweetheart.

I love Jolie and think her replacing Tom Cruise in SALT was one of the best things the studio could have done. While I want INCEPTION to do really well in its second weekend, I do not begrudge SALT its very likely number one spot.