2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

[rolotomasi99]

After the absolutely pathetic weekend we just had, we get two semi-big releases aiming for two very different audiences. The first is THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER, the third film in the Narnia chronicles. The first film was a surprise hit in 2005, making almost $300 m and making it to number two for the year ahead of THE GOBLET OF FIRE, WAR OF THE WORLDS, and KING KONG. What many of us did not realize was how the Christian community was going to embrace this film like THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST for tykes. The next film in the series, PRINCE CASPIAN, was released in the summer instead of Christmas and downplayed its Christian undertones. As punishment it made less than half of its predecessor, and placed at number 15 for the year.

From the reviews I have read, THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER brings back the Christian themes to suit its Christmas time release. Still, I think people are pretty tired of this series. It will definitely be number one at the box-office and pass $100 m, but I doubt anyone will be able to call it a success. I think it will have a $35 m opening and make a little more than $100 m in all. It just faces way too much competition from YOGI BEAR and GULLIVER’S TRAVELS for the little kids, as well as TRON LEGACY for the teens. Then again, I always underestimate the allure of over-paying for badly converted 3D films. Maybe this film will be as big a hit as its predecessor, but no way will it match the first film in the series.

The other film being released will have to settle for number two this weekend. THE TOURIST may star two people often cited as the sexiest movie stars, but from what the critics are saying they have absolutely no heat between each other on screen. Apparently, director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck was all wrong for this material. The film is deadly serious and slow when it should be light and fun. I figure it will open with about $25 m from its star power and lack of alternatives for adults. However, I will be shocked if it makes more than $80 m in all.

THE DEATHLY HALLOWS may have had a huge opening, but it continues to have huge drops each weekend. After 60% and 65% drops, things will probably level out, but I am starting to wonder how the heck the film is going to make it past $300 m. TANGLED is also slipping quickly. I will be surprised if it makes it past $140 m. It is slightly better than the $104 m the last Disney (non-Pixar) animated film, THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG, did. However, when you factor in the 3D price inflation, it is just as many tickets sold. Maybe the Disney Princess films are truly over…for now.

Next weekend, the second most anticipated Hollywood blockbuster film (by me at least) will be unleashed upon the world and we will all bask in its neon blue glory. There is no way it can top INCEPTION, but it will be trippy and glorious.

[Sabin]

Every once in a while, a film is released at the most catastrophically bad time. I'm thinking of Cinderella Man opening the week after or before Star Wars. And opening Prince Caspian during the summer was one of them. Narnia is not a summer film. I don't really think that Harry Potter films are summer films either, but Narnia damn near comes with a winter caveat. We'll see how many people jump back on the ship after missing the second book in the series considering most people have only read the first one.

[Precious Doll]

The latest Narnia film actually opened in a couple of countries last Thursday/Friday. In Australia it opened last Thurdsay on nearly as many screens as the Harry Potter film yet box office figures for Narnia over the weekend are not available. Fox are claiming that Narina's first week of release are 'preview' screenings and therefore not releasing the figures. Never mind that box office figures for previews (generally a couple of sessions in a couple of cinemas over the weekend) are always included in the weekend figures or that since last Thursday Narnia has been playing in every multiplex in country, every day on 10 to 12 sessions per location. Clearly Fox are very nervous about this one.

[MovieWes]

This weekend will be interesting to watch. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader opens, and right now, just one day before it is unleashed on worldwide audiences, I don't have any idea how it's going to play out. The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe was a massive success, which led me to believe that the "Narnia" franchise was destined to become a cash cow for Disney and would rival the "Harry Potter" and "Lord of the Rings" franchises in terms of popularity for years to come. It never crossed my mind that each new entry wouldn't make a minimum of $250 million. And now here we are, exactly 5 years after the release of the first film, which beat out Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire to become the second highest grossing film of 2005, and not only is the franchise in serious jeopardy after Prince Caspian failed to make even half of what the first film made, but Disney has abandoned the "Narnia" franchise completely. As a result, I feel that $110 million for The Voyage of the Dawn Treader would be a major step forward for the "Narnia" franchise. Anything more will just be icing on the cake.

However, just because I have my doubts as to the box-office potential of Dawn Treader doesn't mean that I am absolutely convinced that it will be a failure at the box-office. In fact, I just don't know. The last film certainly wasn't bad. In fact, I think I enjoyed it almost as much as I did the first movie (although, for me, both were only moderately enjoyable). There are a number of factors that led to its box-office (under)performance. First, it was released at the beginning of summer 2008, right smack in between Iron Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, two massively successful (at least box-office wise) blockbusters that each grossed over $300 million at the box-office. This led a lot of people, including the executives at Disney, to declare that Caspian was not only swallowed up by the competition, but that audiences had little interest in watching a film that was so tailor-made for the Christmas season in the middle of summer. Thus, Disney scheduled the next film for release this coming weekend almost immediately (a weekend which was obviously kept by 20th Century Fox after they snapped up the rights to the franchise).

There was also the fact that, as successful as the first film was, it was also based on the best known book of the series. None of the other books can quite compare with The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe in terms of popularity, and in some cases, people weren't even aware that there were any other books (or if they were, they didn't give a crap). Sure, the books have been around for decades and there was that BBC series in the late 80s/early 90s, but by and large, interest in the series always began and ended with the Wardrobe. That said, however, general audiences love their movie franchises, especially in the realm of science fiction and fantasy, so I had little doubt that the first film was popular enough to not only keep audiences coming back for years to come, but to bring about a renewed interest in C.S. Lewis' novels. After all, it worked for J.R.R. Tolkien's novels after the release of the "Lord of the Rings" films.

But perhaps the biggest catalyst to the second film's box-office shortcomings have to do with the films themselves. During the box-office run of Prince Caspian, I got to thinking that maybe The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, in spite of its box-office/home video success, positive reviews, and handful of Oscar nominations, was just one of those movies that everyone saw but didn't necessarily like. Maybe there was the issue that it felt more like a poor-man's "Lord of the Rings" than anything else. Or maybe it was due to secular audiences being completely turned off by the overt Christian overtones on display in the first movie.

Whatever the issue (or issues), the fact remains that the franchise is now facing an uphill battle , not just to reclaim its position alongside the "Lord of the Rings" and "Harry Potter" franchises, but to actually remain in existence. Unfortunately, the ad campaign for this film has been simply atrocious. Not only does it look like it's not up to par with the first two films, it look worse than flops like Percy Jackson and the Olympians, Bridge to Terabithia, Eragon, The Spiderwick Chronicles, and The Golden Compass. I'm sure that Fox is crossing its fingers (not least of which because the studio is responsible for two of the films on that list, one of which came out this year) and is hoping that audiences will look past the bland ad campaign and mediocre reviews and show up based on brand loyalty alone. It certainly doesn't hurt that the film is based on what is considered by most Narnia fans to be, if not the best, then at least the second best book in the series. While all signs seem to be pointing towards a continuance of diminishing returns, there's certainly the possibility that it could end up surprising everyone.

I can actually see several scenarios playing out, although I have no idea which one it will be. The first scenario is that it opens with around $35 million and has decent enough legs to carry it to around $120 million (this seems to be the most likely one for me). The second scenario is that it opens with $25 million and tops out at around $85 million. The other scenario is that it opens with over $55 million and grosses around $170 million (this is obviously the one that I think Fox is hoping for).



Edited By MovieWes on 1291925552

[OscarGuy]

Must it drop at least 50%? Goblet of Fire opened with $102 M the weekend before Thanksgiving in 2005. Then, Thanksgiving weekend, it dropped only 46.7% to $54 M. Now, I'm not saying that in today's marketplace that it wouldn't drop below 50% having front-loaded into its first weekend, but it's possible the film could make $60 M or more in its second weekend.

[Franz Ferdinand]

This weekend will determine just how high HP7.1 will travel up the box office list. I have seen predictions as high as $81M all the way down to $50M for the weekend; the Thanksgiving holiday will help it out, but it will fall a minimum of 50%. I still think it will have the steam to make it to $350M and be the final quarter's highest grosser.

[OscarGuy]

3D ticket prices aren't going to be a factor. Warner Bros. couldn't finish the 3D conversion with a good deal of quality, so they decided not to release it in 3D. Now, they might be able to get the last film out in 3D, but if what I saw in HP this weekend is any indication, it's thoroughly pointless to have it issued in 3D.

[rolotomasi99]

$125M is the sixth highest opening weekend ever. I think we can pencil in the second part as snatching Dark Knight's record, provided Warner Bros. keep the release on a Friday.

Except Summer 2011 is going to be a huge clusterfuck!

A large franchise film is opening on almost every weekend. As of right now, the summer schedule has TRANSFORMERS 3 opening two weeks before THE DEATHLY HALLOWS. So far nothing huge is opening the week between these two monster movies, but anything could happen. The reason this weekend was so huge was it faced absolutely no competition.

I think it will still have a huge opening weekend thanks to the 3D ticket prices, but I am pretty sure THE DARK KNIGHT's opening weekend record is safe until AVATAR 2 is released.

[Franz Ferdinand]

$125M is the sixth highest opening weekend ever. I think we can pencil in the second part as snatching Dark Knight's record, provided Warner Bros. keep the release on a Friday.

[MovieWes]

It's being reported that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 earned $65 million on Friday and is looking at a $140 million opening weekend. $24 million of its gross came from midnight screenings.

[rolotomasi99]

There seems to be zero doubt about which film will be number one. The only question is what will be number two.

THE DEATHLY HALLOWS part 1 is the first half of the last Harry Potter film. I have been upset about Warner Bros splitting up the last book into two films since I first heard the rumors about it. Clearly I need to let it go, since that seems to be the trend these days (BREAKING DAWN and THE HOBBIT will pull the same stunt). I know it must be hard for studios to resist making more money off of two films rather than one, but this shit almost always pisses people off. BACK TO THE FUTURE, THE MATRIX, and THE PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN all saw huge drops in box-office between the first and second part of their two part sequels. In the end they still profit, but I keep thinking if this were the very last Harry Potter film it might actually have a chance at breaking $400 m.
Ultimately, I think it will have a huge opening. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $120 m, with a $330 m total. I also think this film will be the third film this year to pass $1 b worldwide. TRON LEGACY could end up being the fourth film, but we shall see.

The spot for number two this weekend seems to be between THE NEXT THREE DAYS and UNSTOPPABLE. MEGAMIND may be able to pull ahead of both, but it seems like the film to lose the most of its audience to Harry Potter. I am going to say THE NEXT THREE DAYS pulls off barely $15 m, and will be slightly better than UNSTOPPABLE to place at number 2. While the trailers and presence of Liam Neeson gives the feeling the studios want this to be the next TAKEN, I do not think its longterm prospects are all that good. It will probably be more in the territory of THE AMERICAN, with a $35 m total.

[rolotomasi99]

Somehow MEGAMIND's $46 m weekend was considered a disappointment. Any non-Pixar, non-sequel, non-adapted animated film that opens to more than $40 m is a huge success as far as I can see.
However, any doubt the film is a hit should be erased by a second weekend at number 1. I figure the film will make $30 m, with a total run slightly north of $150 m. It probably will not pass $200 m since it faces THE DEATHLY HOLLOWS next weekend and TANGLED the weekend after that.

Of the new releases, only UNSTOPPABLE has any chance of possibly topping MEGAMIND. I would think it had a better shot at number one if it were not for SKYLINE stealing some of its audience. Still, it should have a decent debut with $25 m. It will face some crowded subsequent weekends, which will keep it from passing $100 m. It will probably settle around $80 m.
Whoever number one is, expect all the headlines on Monday to read as some variation on UNSTOPPABLE stopping/not stopping MEGAMIND at the box-office.

Another day, another small budget alien movie with impressive F/X. It used to be that alien invasion movies with CGI would be large Hollywood productions with big name casts. With the success of CLOVERFIELD, we have seen smaller budgeted films using unknown casts and on-the-fly filmmaking techniques to save all their cash for some pretty decent special effects. The most art-house version of this was the haunting MONSTERS. The most impressive was of course DISTRICT 9. Now SKYLINE comes along to basically ruin it. The reviews have not been kind for this film, though everyone seems impressed with the F/X.
Unlike CLOVERFIELD and DISTRICT 9, I do not think folks are all that anxious about this film. Competing with the bigger budgeted Tony Scott action film this weekend will already sap what little audience it would have had. I expect a $15 m opening at the most, with a $35 m total run.

Getting stronger reviews than I expected, MORNING GLORY seems to not be getting much interest from the ladies the movie was clearly targeting. Opening on Wednesday, the film made a little more than $1 m its first day and $1.5 on Veteran's day. Unless word of mouth is really great, it will probably get no better than $8 m its first weekend. $25 m seems like the best it can hope for.

[OscarGuy]

Based on how The Hangover did, I'm like the only one I know predicting Due Date to open above Megamind, siphoning off the Will Farrell fans after all, it's not exactly a kid-style film and although Despicable Me opened significantly high, this isn't exactly the summer and, as I said before, this isn't really a kid-friendly kind of movie.

But who knows.

[rolotomasi99]

The holiday movie schedule is fast approaching. The doldrums of September and October are over, and now both blockbusters and Oscar fare are being released.

This weekend will probably be close but it seems like MEGAMIND has the best shot at number 1. While Pixar remains the champion of animated film in the US, Dreamworks is certainly doing its part to be a respectable number 2. We had HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON earlier this year, an improved SHREK sequel, and now this film. I think families with young children are starved for something after no big releases. It will probably have a $40 m opening, and make around $200 m total.

I still find most remakes lazy and stupid, but at least I can appreciate the remakes that do not use the title of the film they are ripping off. DISTURBIA was given a pass since it only used the plot of REAR WINDOW, but left the title alone. Similarly, DUE DATE may be a stupider version of a superior film, but at least the title PLANE, TRAINS, AND AUTOMOBILES remains untouched. This is the first comedy for a wide audience in a while. I think it will make $35 m opening, and around $125 m total.

FOR COLORED GIRLS seems to be Tyler Perry's attempt to move past his Madea reputation. After shamelessly tacking his name to PRECIOUS, it seems he might want a shot at some Oscar glory himself. The reviews seem to indicate that the cast is the only thing even remotely Oscar-worthy about the film. I expect like most Tyler Perry films, this movie will have a strong opening followed by a quick plunge. Maybe $15 m this weekend, and $35 m when all is said and done.

I was one week early on my prediction of SECRETARIAT overtaking THE SOCIAL NETWORK. It looks like it may even leap over HEREAFTER, which is sinking quickly. I am starting to think the little horse film might pull a surprise Best Picture nom on us like THE BLIND-SIDE.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1289005473

[rolotomasi99]

Some say PARANORMAL ACTIVITY killed the SAW series when the sixth film in the very successful series made less in its entire run than what most of the other sequels made in their opening weekends. While I have never watched any of the films, from what I have read it was really SAW V that killed the series. Supposedly number 6 was better than most. With number 7 promising 3D spectactle and a final end to the series (yeah, right), SAW might once again be back on top this Halloween. I foresee a $25 m opening and a $60 m total.

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY will probably drop to $20 m on its second weekend. I think it will just creep across the $100 m line.

Most other films will have small drops. SECRETARIAT still continues to impress with miniscule drops. THE SOCIAL NETWORK and THE TOWN are also very strong.