2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

[rolotomasi99]

Well, I guess it was the box-office universe correcting itself. After four weeks of unusually intelligent Hollywood fare being number one at the box-office, the third film in possibly one of the dumbest movie series ever not only was on top but set a Fall record. I guess people were just really in the mood to laugh. Last week I said I hoped JACK-ASS 3 would not break $100 m, but now I am begging the cinema gods to not let it get past $200 m. I figured that this huge opening was going to serve as more than 50% of its gross like other films that burn off quickly (WATCHMEN, CLOVERFIELD, BRUNO, etc.), but this week’s grosses were around $15 m. Usually in the Spring and Fall you can figure the non-opening weekend grosses of a film by doubling the prior four days, but that would mean JACK-ASS 3 is going to make $30 m on its second weekend. I sure hope my numbers are wrong, but that is how things are looking.

In terms of competition, the only thing that could pull its target audience away is PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2. I never saw the first film, so I am not sure if it lived up to its hype. Will the sequel be similar to THE BLAIR WITCH PROJECT 2 and flop or be like SAW 2 and expand on the first film’s success? I am thinking teens are ready to be scared, and the trailers have seemed to offer more of the same from the first film. I think a $30 m opening is very possible. The first film made just a little more than $100 m through great word of mouth. I do not know if the same can happen for this one, but I am going to say it makes around $100 m. It has this weekend and Halloween weekend to make gobs of money. Its only competition will be SAW 7,000 (or whatever) next weekend. Considering how little it cost to make, anything over $10 m is a huge profit and will justify a third film.

The only other movie opening wide this weekend is the supernatural-romance-whatever HEREAFTER. This movie is being savaged by critics who feel personally hurt that Clint Eastwood would make something so schmaltzy. I would say a movie like this needs good reviews to lure people in, but the equally loathed and similarly themed THE LOVELY BONES ended up doing surprisingly well. I know my 80+ year old grandmother is excited about seeing it and she never likes to see movies in the theatre. I think she is probably the type of crowd who will make it a surprise success. With hardly any other new movies for adults out there, I think it could have a $15 m opening. Depending on word of mouth, $60 m seems entirely possible.

REDS will probably fall around 50% in its second weekend going off the weekday grosses. SECRETARIAT is showing strong legs despite a bad start out of the gate. It even managed to pull ahead of THE SOCIAL NETWORK on Thursday. Since it seems to be finding a good family audience, its grosses seem to be higher on the weekend then the weekdays. I think it will do $7 m, and get around $60 m altogether. THE SOCIAL NETWORK will pull in $6 m, and still looks to end up with around $85 m.

[Greg]

Not having seen Jackass 3D and only going by what I've read of it, I think a substantial part of its box office is the result of some people wanting to check out a 3D movie that has several scenes of frontal male nudity.



Edited By Greg on 1287423116

[Sabin]

Jackass 3D opened with $50 mil! Those are 3D prices but still. That's huge. America spoke'th.

Red opened with $22.5 mil. Not awesome for a $58 mil price tag (not to mention around $30 in marketing) but that's still better than I thought. It'll probably drop off pretty quick but break even in the long run.

The big story to me was the strong holding power of Secretariat, Life as we Know It, and especially The Social Network. The latter hung in with $11 mil dropping only 28.5% for $63 mil. On a $50 mil budget, it's now officially something between a hit and a marginal enough phenomenon to hit back at some of the slams it's been taking.

Secretariat grabbed $9.5 mil, dropping only 25%. It stands at $27 mil and on a $35 mil budget, that's not bad thus far. It's no Seabiscuit, but there is a crowd for it. And Life As We Know It grabbed another $9 mil for $28 mil on a $38 mil budget. They'll both hang in there.

[Sabin]

I think Jackass 3D is going to be huge. There's kind of a thirst for something mindlessly entertaining and Jackass 3D will fit that bill. More so than Red, I think. Jackass 3D will open $30+ mil while Red will teeter below $20 mil, which will add fuel to the fire that graphic novel adaptations are not all that unless someone's wearing tights.

[rolotomasi99]

Well, teenage boys will once again rule the box-office. Not only does this weekend offer two films aimed squarely at the taste adolescent males, but the next two weeks will also feature films for the teen crowd.

I am not certain, but I think JACKASS 3 will be winning the weekend. After several weeks of intelligent films (by general Hollywood standards) ruling the box-office, it makes sense that one of the dumbest movie franchises ever will reclaim the multiplexes for the moron crowd. The past two JACKASS films have been huge successes considering what they cost and consist of (nothing basically). I think a $30 m opening will be easily attained. An $80 m overall haul seems unavoidable. I just pray to the cinema gods that it does not pass $100 m.

JACKASS 3 would probably have a bigger opening weekend if it were not facing direct competition for its target audience from RED. RED is definitely the choice for the smarter crowd. Unfortunately, a DVD quality version of the film is already available on the internet. I am not sure how this will affect its overall numbers, but opening weekend should still be good. I think around $20 m is possible. If word of mouth is good, $80 m is certainly possible. I cannot tell if the buzz for this film is THE EXPENDABLES genuine or KICK-ASS misleading.

Like I said, the next few weeks all feature films aimed directly at the high school and college crowd. Adults and intelligent filmgoers will have to make do with older releases. We shall see how THE SOCIAL NETWORK does with mostly older audiences for a few weeks. Based on this week’s grosses, it might make around $12 m. I still think it would have made so much more if it had awards momentum going for it. Oh, well.

SECRETARIAT did actually pretty well this week, so a $10 m second weekend is actually possible. While that number itself is not good, considering how little a drop that will be from the first weekend it might be able to save face.

THE TOWN continues on smashingly. A $90 m total seems assured, and a $100 m seems tantalizingly possible though not guaranteed.

[MovieWes]

I'm confident that The Social Network will top out at over $100 million. It's following a pretty consistent box-office pattern with The Departed, so I think that $110 is where it's going to finish. It will have some very good legs.

I think that Life as We Know It will definitely be #1 this weekend. It will probably make around $18 million. Secretariat has had an awful advertising campaign, so I'm not sure that there is a whole lot of awareness with the general public. Somewhere between $8-11 million seems about right to me.

It will be...

1) Life as We Know It - $18 million
2) The Social Network - $16 million
3) Secretariat - $11 million
4) My Soul to Take - $9 million
5) The Legend of the Guardians - $7 million

[rolotomasi99]

After an unusual and short trend of smart films for grown ups being number one at the box-office for three weeks in a row, we have three candidates who do not fit that mold at all.

SECRETARIAT with the best reviews of the three and an inspiring story will be number one. It will probably make around $25 m. It is the first "fun for the whole family" type film in a while. Even critics who do not like the film give Diane Lane good notices. How well it does in the long run all depends on the word of mouth. I am going to say we do not have a repeat of THE BLIND SIDE or even SEABISCUIT on our hands here. I think $80 m is about where it will top out.

I do not admire Katherine Heigl as an actress and really dislike the films she chooses to be in, but I will never understand the hatred she seems to attract from some. Still, her three romantic comedies have all been succeses at some level. KILLERS has been the only flop of the films she starred in. I think LIFE AS WE KNOW IT looks like another bland romantic comedy, but the advertisements seem to be perfectly geared toward their target audience of straight women and gay men (they smartly put Josh Duhamel in his underwear on the poster). I think it will do around $20 m with a $70 m total.

With the beginning of October comes the horror films. We had two smaller entries last week of widely divergent quality pretty much bomb. I think MY SOUL TO TAKE looks like another minor entry in Wes Craven's erratic career. How can the man responsible for two of the most interesting horror films of the 80s (A NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET) and 90s (SCREAM) be responsible for so many clunkers as well? 3D will help push MY SOUL TO TAKE into the realm of $10 m. The most it will do is probably around $25 m.

THE SOCIAL NETWORK has done alright during its first week bringing in $8 m after its $22 m weekend. I think the second weekend will be about $16 m. I still think $75 m is about where it will top out, $85 m at the most. It probably would have done so much better if it is had Oscar momentum behind it.

[MovieWes]

Well, considering that it made over $9 million yesterday, I think that $19 million seems a bit low. I think that $25-27 million sounds more like it.

[Sabin]

The Social Network will take $19 mil. Don't ask me why. I see people asking WTF HAPPENED TO THE SOCIAL NETWORK!? And then the next week it makes the exact same amount of money.

[OscarGuy]

Surprised you and others aren't participating in my weekly box office predictions game.

[rolotomasi99]

So...has it begun? Is this the beginning of the Oscar season? It seems a little early, but as last year taught us a tiny movie from the summer can beat a gargantuan from the end of the year for Best Picture.

THE SOCIAL NETWORK has been pretty much loved across the board, though good reviews never guarantee Oscars. I am still not convinced that the older Academy voters are going to respond to a movie about such a foreign world.
I am also unclear as to how audiences are going to respond. All the good reviews and great cast did not help ZODIAC become a hit. I would think people would be more interested in a serial killer movie than a website biopic movie. Then again, as all the reviews note, 500 million people have made Facebook a part of their lives. Maybe they are interested in the story behind it creation.
Either way, THE SOCIAL NETWORK has great reveiws and quite a bit of exposure. Since it faces very little competition, there is no doubt it will be number one this weekend. I am thinking if a film like WALL STREET 2 can make almost $20 m, then THE SOCIAL NETWORK can make around $25 m. Its long term prospects all depend on how folks the first weekend folks respond to it and what they tell their friends and family. If this film were being released closer to Oscar season and did win Best Picture, it could easily make $150 m, but at this point it is going to have to sink or swim based solely on word of mouth. Based on the talky type of movie it is, I would say no more than $75 m; however, folks could be far more interested in the subject then I ever imagined. I guess even without awards attention, THE SOCIAL NETWORK might be able to pass $100 m. It will be interesting to watch it all play out.

Two horror films will be vying for people's attention. LET ME IN is the highbrow choice while CASE 39 seems like just another forgetable Hollywood horror flick. I am thinking both will make around $10 m over the weekend with a $30 m final gross. LET ME IN has good reviews (though not as good as the movie its ripping off), and I think CASE 39 is not even being screened for critics. We will see if it really was the subtitles that made folks ignore LE THE RIGHT ONE IN, or if the more subtle horror of the story was just not interesting to gore hounds and art house crowds thought it was just another vampire movie.

[rolotomasi99]

More September doldrums. The calm before the storm.

While animated movies having been doing boffo business this past decade, these are mostly comedies. Animated action films have been less successful. The one huge exception is THE INCREDIBLES, but that had Pixar behind it and was definitely geared to every age. THE LEGEND OF THE GUARDIANS however does not have Pixar's name recognition nor any funny bits to appease younger kids and adults. This is just a straight forward animated action film. I am sure 12 year old boys want to see this film, but I do not know if it will have the broad appeal of HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON or MONSTERS VS ALIENS.

Still, it should be able to open strong since it is the only thing for young folks and the fact that it is based on a beloved book series. Also, the visuals look amazing and the 3D should actually be pretty cool. I am thinking probably a $30 m opening and then a little more than a $100 m overall.

Talk about a sequel no one really wanted, WALL STREET 2 seems pretty unnecessary. The trailer is pretty slick and may pull some folks in, but I doubt this film be able to capture the fire the original one delivered. WALL STREET made $43 m back in 1987. The sequel will definitely make more than that, but not match it adjusted for inflation. Around $20 m opening weekend and $65 m overall.

With hardly any comedies out there for adults, YOU AGAIN might be able to do well enough for a small-ish film. Probably around $15 m opening and $50 m overall.

[rolotomasi99]

Armed with great reviews and a stellar cast, I am hoping THE TOWN will be number one this weekend. I think if a slow, arty film like THE AMERICAN can make $13 m on its opening weekend then a more straightforward action-thriller like THE TOWN might be able to make $30 m opening weekend and possibly pass $100 m if word of mouth is as positive as the reviews.

The other films seem to be leftovers that got dumped in September. I think all of them will make about $15 m on their opening weekend, though their final tallies will probably differ.

EASY A is the only light movie for teens. The reviews seem pretty good and there is not much else out there for laughs. I think a final gross of $45 m could be possible.

DEVIL seems creepy and effective. Horror movies often make half their grosses in the first weekend, so probably it will end somewhere around $30 m.

ALPHA AND OMEGA is the only new kids movie out there and the 3D prices certain help. Other than LEGEND OF THE GUARDIANS, it will face very little competition in the next few weeks. $55 m could be its final total.

[rolotomasi99]

Isn't The Virginity Hit opening wide this weekend? IMDB suggests it is, but boxofficemojo doesn't even list the film.

BoxOfficeMojo is where I get my info so that is why I left it off.

To me a movie is not worth mentioning unless it is opening in more than a 1,000 theatres. Less than a thousand theatres is a "limited" release in my book. The only exceptions to that would be the AVATAR re-release and BORAT which managed to be number one with $30 m despite opening in just 837 theatres.

I have read reviews for THE VIRGINITY HIT so it must be coming out this weekend, but I cannot figure out how wide a release it is getting.

[OscarGuy]

Isn't The Virginity Hit opening wide this weekend? IMDB suggests it is, but boxofficemojo doesn't even list the film.