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Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:15 pm
by Hollywood Z
Sabin wrote:I could see Inglourious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes, or Up replacing Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. It only hit me now that having not seen that movie I have no idea what that title could possibly mean.
Revenge of the Fallen? Having seen the film (unfortunately), I can only assume that it has to do with Michael Bay extracting revenge on the filmloving community that has chastized him for over a decade now with his latest assault on the senses and intelligence.
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2010 3:24 pm
by Sabin
I could see Inglourious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes, or Up replacing Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. It only hit me now that having not seen that movie I have no idea what that title could possibly mean.
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2010 10:23 am
by Hollywood Z
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen!?!?!?!?!?!
GROSS!!!! XP That means this movie might have a very slight chance at one nomination!! Urgh, someone sold their soul to the devil to get this movie any kind of recognition. I sincerely hope that this doesn't slime it's way into a nomination. Come on Up or Inglorious Basterds, I'm praying they sneak in.
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2010 7:45 am
by OscarGuy
Where are those from? The CAS website doesn't have them listed.
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2010 2:37 am
by Big Magilla
The nominees:
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
I missed only the latter, predicting Up instead.
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 4:30 pm
by OscarGuy
No, you didn't step on toes. I was just referencing that instead of posting our predictions in this thread, Peter, Tripp and I have predictions that will be up on my website. It was just a way to say "we've made predictions" too.
For the MPSE, you're right. They are a bit all over the place, but the Sound Effects/Foley category is really the one that mirrors the Academy's Sound Editing category. However, their Animated category generally yields one cross-over contender and that's the Pixar entry typically. But, they are a bit all over the place. What helps in using CAS as a precursor for both is that there isn't a separate Sound Editors branch within the Academy, thus why there is often so much correlation between the two categories.
But, really, using the CAS to predict Sound Editing is like using the DGA to predict Best Picture. Sure they tend to b more right than the PGA, but it's not the DGA's job (as a precursor) to predict Best Picture.
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 3:53 pm
by Hollywood Z
OscarGuy wrote:Hollywood Z, the Sound Editors have their own guild to use as a nominations tool, so while this group might be decent at matching up, we should also look to the Golden Reel awards for further indication.
I've never really used the MPSE guild as a precursor indicator before. Probably because they spread the field so vast with categories in ADR, Foley, Foriegn, etc in addition to simply Sound Editing. That being the case, I just used the whole knowledge that Sound Mixing and Sound Editing tend to line up pretty close, with the only three that haven't were either a huge box office success (last year's Iron Man) or Best Picture pedigree (There Will be Blood or Letters from Iwo Jima, which went on to win). Perhaps I will give them a look today.
btw re your btw, sorry if I stepped on anyone's toes by posting this. 
My bad.
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 2:11 pm
by Sabin
I agree with Z's lineup.
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 2:03 pm
by OscarGuy
Hollywood Z, the Sound Editors have their own guild to use as a nominations tool, so while this group might be decent at matching up, we should also look to the Golden Reel awards for further indication.
Btw, my site's contributors' predictions will be posted later this afternoon on my site.
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:55 pm
by Zahveed
If those end up being the nominees, I can see mixing going to either The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds with editing for either Avatar or Star Trek.
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:39 pm
by Hollywood Z
Okay, in the past 12 years, the CAS has matched up all five nominees for Best Sound Mixing 2 times and usually averages about 3 out of 5 being correct. Usually, they tend to nominate the larger box offices successes (Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, 300) or award pedigree films (Into the Wild, Crash, Babel) that fail to make the final cut. Still, this year's award pedigree films seem tailored to Best Sound nominees (Avatar, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds), so they'll be more likely to see a larger number nominated for Best Sound Mixing, if not all of them.
Also remember that since the Sound Editing branch have expanded their nominee list to five now, they've been matching up to Sound Mixing 4 for 5, too. So there will be one film that will fail to make the cut for Sound Editing. I'm predicting that the original sound effects for this year's Sci-Fi films are going to be too much to pass up, so this may be the one category where The Hurt Locker will fail to make the cut.
So, I'm predicting the Cinema Audio Society nominees are going to be:
- Avatar
- District 9
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglorious Basterds
- Star Trek
And for the Academy Awards, we will see in Sound Mixing:
- Avatar
- District 9
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglorious Basterds
- Up
And for Sound Editing:
- Avatar
- District 9
- Inglorious Basterds
- Star Trek
- Up
However, Nine could be an upsetting factor in both the CAS and the Sound Mixing category if it's deemed a good enough job. In that case, we'd probably see an absense of District 9.