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Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:22 pm
by rolotomasi99
J Sylva wrote:Poor BRIGHT STAR...
I know. I mourn with you. Brilliant all around. Three films directed by women nominated for Best Picture and three women nominated for Director would have been wonderful (THE HURT LOCKER, AN EDUCATION, BRIGHT STAR).
Oh well.
Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:39 am
by sijmen
Big Magilla wrote:Good luck with those calculations!
Thanks, Magilla. So far, the calculations are not very exciting...
Too bad there were no 'for your considerations' at the screenplay categories. Last year, they mentionned Fozen River...
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:01 pm
by Eric
Mister Tee wrote:Final note: It's disappointing Karger couldn't even throw in a stray mention for Swinton in the best actress discussion.
Criminal, really.
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:47 pm
by OscarGuy
Elisabeth Hasselbeck is one of the dumbest people on television. Every moderator on The View before her and probably after her will have ten times more grace, knowledge and tact than she does...
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:50 pm
by Sabin
Anyway, it's widely known that Tucci's wife died earlier this year after a long battle with cancer. He mentioned on the show that his wife had told him not to make the film but he did it anyway. Stupid Elisabeth asked if his wife had seen the film. Instead of explaining that he made the film after her death, he simply said "no, she didn't".
I didn't know that. That's horrible.
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:24 pm
by The Original BJ
Mister Tee wrote:Karger largely did his calculations by running through the traditional harbingers -- BFCA, Globes, SAG -- and xeroxing. I wonder if this is the wrong year for that, as two odd elements have come together: 1) the year-end hot shots (except for Avatar) were far more disappointing to critics and audiences than anticipated and 2) because of the Olympics, the Oscar nominations and presentations are going to be a bit later than usual, meaning there's more time to factor in disappointment than usual.
What's particularly significant, too, I think, is that all three of those major precursors came out with nominations within a couple DAYS of each other. (In past years, it seems these three groups have spread out their nominations a bit more, especially SAG.) And so, we haven't really seen certain films lose or gain steam yet with the precursors, since all those groups pretty much reflected the general vibe at the moment (with the moment being several weeks ago...NOT when Oscar ballots are being cast.)
I don't really think The Messenger would be the top beneficiary of something like Nine's collapse, but now that you say it, Tee, I would LOVE for a movie with such low box office to get the most help from a 10-wide Best Picture field, thereby sticking it to folks hoping these changes will get stuff like The Hangover into Best Picture.
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:17 pm
by Big Magilla
Karger's article is hardly surprising considering his thoughts have appeared on various blogs for a while now.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tucci nomianted for Julie & Julia. He's due for career recognition anyway. And he gets extra points for tactfully handling those idiots on The View. Why do I always manage to catch that stupid show when they are at their dumbest? Or maybe they're dumb all the time and I don't know becaue I don;t watch them that often.
Anyway, it's widely known that Tucci's wife died earlier this year after a long battle with cancer. He mentioned on the show that his wife had told him not to make the film but he did it anyway. Stupid Elisabeth asked if his wife had seen the film. Instead of explaining that he made the film after her death, he simply said "no, she didn't".
Oscar ballots have gone out. I don;t know how quickly the majority of them will be returned but if voters are lookign for alternatives, the National Society of Film Critics meets Monday. I'm still holding out hope for a Swinton win whcih could translate into a Best Actress nod, probably over Mirren.
If Invictus is truly dead, then Freeman is vulnerable. I have a feeling Mortensen would be the most likely to benefit from of his absence. Even if it isn't, Damon is more than vulnerable. I would love to see Peter Capaldi (In the Loop) nominated instead.
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:02 pm
by Sabin
Best Actor runners-up: Tobey Maguire, Viggo MOrtenesen, Ben Foster.
Best Actress: Emily Blunt
Not a single mention for Michael Stuhlbarg or Tilda Swinton...
Y'know, this is pretty frustrating when you can ONLY talk about performers who essentially have front-runner status, and a lovable longshot can be a multiple-nominee AND possibly a Golden Globe nominee.
Not mentioning Swinton is obnoxious. Get her name out there! But why not citation of Stuhlbarg? A Serious Man has a chance at a Best Picture nomination! Why COULDN'T he be carried along?
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 3:55 pm
by Mister Tee
Karger largely did his calculations by running through the traditional harbingers -- BFCA, Globes, SAG -- and xeroxing. I wonder if this is the wrong year for that, as two odd elements have come together: 1) the year-end hot shots (except for Avatar) were far more disappointing to critics and audiences than anticipated and 2) because of the Olympics, the Oscar nominations and presentations are going to be a bit later than usual, meaning there's more time to factor in disappointment than usual.
Cases in point: all those precursor groups stuck to long-touted hopefuls like Nine, Invictus, and Lovely Bones as far as Tucci. They didn't have the luxury of knowing Nine and Lovely Bones woud be trashed unmercifully, nor that Invictus would land with a squish. Karger had enough lead-time and was alert enough to delete Nine, but he's still sticking to the idea that Invictus and Tucci/Bones are too etched into the landscape to be omitted. Granted, it can be dangerous to ignore a seemingly Academy-friendly piece like Invictus, even though its box office/critical reaction is alot closer to Flags of Our Fathers than more feted Eastwood films. But I think assuming Damon and directing nods may be more iffy than Karger presumes; the film may seem clearly dismissible a month from now when ballots are due. (Freeman is probably less delete-able, but, like many here, I hold out hopeless hope for Damon in his more deserving lead role instead)
And I continue to believe that widespread disaffection for Lovely Bones will cause Tucci to lose traction for it (it's not like he was even singled out in many reviews), and let Julie and Julia bubble back up as the source of his nomination.
I have't seen The Messenger, so I have no idea if it deserves the hype, but to the idea of a film earning about 600 grand making even an expanded best picture list strikes me as unlikely. Not to mention the opposite of what the planners intended when they implemented the rule change.
Final note: It's disappointing Karger couldn't even throw in a stray mention for Swinton in the best actress discussion.
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:05 pm
by Okri
flipp525 wrote:The Original BJ wrote:
And what, in god's name, was that actress from Rushmore doing? Poor, unfocused supporting performances all around (except for Rosamund Pike's wonderful turn).
That's interesting, because what I felt Williams, Seymour, Cooper and Pike did a terrific job of was sketching with quick details a life outside the film. I believed that these were fully formed human beings that happened to be in Jenny's orbit, as opposed to mere supporting players in the Jenny story.
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:12 am
by flipp525
The Original BJ wrote:Are Alfred Molina's chances completely dead? Is that supporting actor lineup really locked in stone, despite a couple pretty weak candidates?
I know you've been championing Molina's performance for awhile now, BJ. And I wanted to give him a chance. I saw An Education yesterday and, well, I just didn’t see it. To me, he was just an annoying fussbudget with a surprising lack of depth played up in a very caricature performance. He doesn't deserve a nomination this year. Cara Seymour, while serviceable, also felt lacking.
And what, in god's name, was that actress from Rushmore doing? Poor, unfocused supporting performances all around (except for Rosamund Pike's wonderful turn). Peter Saarsgard felt miscast to me. I liked the guy playing Danny.
Edited By flipp525 on 1262293577
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 7:43 am
by Big Magilla
sijmen wrote:Were there any for your considerations in the screenplay-categories?
(I need them for my Formula)
No, but Karger mentions Julie & Julia and A Single Man as fifth slot contenders for Adapted Screenplay but thinks the voters will prefer District 9.
In Original, he gives kudos to It's Complicated but says (500) Days of Sumemr will prevail over it.
He also mentions Distritct 9 and It's Complicated as "spoilers" for Best Picture but ultimately thinks The Messenger will be the one to benefit from Nine's demise.
Best Actor runners-up: Tobey Maguire, Viggo MOrtenesen, Ben Foster.
Best Actress: Emily Blunt
Best Supporting Actor: Alfred Molina
(though he cites Stanley Tucci as most likely for The Lovely Bones he mentions a nomination for him for Julie & Julia as a possibility instead)
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Diane Kruger
Best Director: Pete Docter, Lee Daniels, Lone Sherfig
Good luck with those calculations!
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:23 am
by sijmen
Were there any for your considerations in the screenplay-categories?
(I need them for my Formula)
Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:31 pm
by J Sylva
Poor BRIGHT STAR...
Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:05 pm
by Big Magilla
For your consideration:
Best Picture - Star Trek
Actor - Matt Damon, The Informant!
Actress - Maya Rudolph - Away We Go
Supporting Actor - Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
Supporting Actress - Ctherien Keener, Where the Wild Things Are
Director - Neill Blomkamp, District 9