The First Hopefuls List

[OscarGuy]

rolo, I think you have a good point. The question is, what else can Fox Searchlight flog for awards contention. Here's the list of 2008 films (not complete):

Under the Same Moon
Young@Heart
Street Kings
Choke
The Secret Life of Bees
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
500 Days of Summer
The Onion Movie
Sweet Little 15

Other than The Wrestler and The Secret Life of Bees, they don't have much else.

[Mister Tee]

To go back to Sabin's main point: based on everything I've been reading, I think it would be an upset if Slumdog Millionaire were NOT a best picture nominee. It was rapturously received at more than one festival, and seems guaranteed to at least grab the Sunshine/Juno spot. With higher-brow critic support, it could even be a more serious contender.

Do people really think advance publicity or trailers -- how "it looks" -- is any indicator of how good a film is going to be? I've been misled so many times in the past -- both for good and ill -- that I'm far more inclined to listen to critical consensus. (Not that that's any infallible barometer, either)

As for the Mamma Mia! thing -- I have no desire to relitigate the ABBA argument. But I would say that calling the film a certain Globe winner is a wild stretch. Granted the musical/comedy prize is generally the less competitive one -- and that musicals can often have the edge -- can anyone cite me a recent winner on that side that was as poorly reviewed as Mamma Mia! was? Even granting commercial success, seems to me you'd have to go back well over a decade to find a comparably maligned choice.

[Eric]

The only people who really cared about the film fell into three demographics: old people, women, and gay men (and I don't mean this in any derogatory sense, I'm just speaking the truth).

Yes, please fuel the fires of UAADB ABBA fans' persecution complex.

[rolotomasi99]

Right now, this is my take.

CHANGELING [Universal]
THE DARK KNIGHT [Warner Bros.]
MILK [Focus]
THE READER [Weinstein Company]
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE [Fox Searchlight]

And 'Slumdog Millionaire' got a lot of good will in the past month from its festival run. It's a charming underdog story that's going to be pushed very hard by Fox Searchlight which has gotten a lot of success from that in the past. There's no reason why it shouldn't connect again.

all its main characters are indian, right? quirky, crowd pleasing comedies like FOUR WEDDINGS AND A FUNERAL, THE FULL MONTY, JUNO, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, etc. appealed to the older voters i always assumed.
just like when movies suchs as DOCTOR DOLITTLE, HELLO DOLLY, MARY POPPINS, etc. were nominated by the older crowds who could not handle BONNIE AND CLYDE, Z, MIDNIGHT COWBOY; i always figured these wtf little films were being nominated because older voters just did not understand films like THERE WILL BE BLOOD, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, etc.

with as few films as there have been centering around characters of color nominated for best picture, most of them were dramas -- THE COLOR PURPLE, SOUNDER, GANDHI, CRASH, etc.
maybe SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE will break that trend, and all those older, white voters will love the little hindi film that could. i just think it will have that extra obstacle to overcome. the academy voters who do not care its main characters are indian probably will not vote for it because it is just not good enough.
i am not counting it out or anything, i am just not as convinced as the folks at awardsdaily seem to be.

[MovieWes]

I haven't seen Mama Mia! either, but I'm generally in agreement with Sabin that ABBA is terrible. The only people who really cared about the film fell into three demographics: old people, women, and gay men (and I don't mean this in any derogatory sense, I'm just speaking the truth). And film critics are generally young or middle-aged straight men, which is why it probably didn't go over too well with them. It'll probably completely fail at the end of the year with the critics' awards, but I totally expect it to do well with the star-whoring HFPA, which is full of the film's three target demographics. There are also a lot of old people, women, and gay men in the Academy, so it might go over well with them too (although it won't be anywhere near the major categories). I can see it getting at the very least an Ensemble nomination from SAG.

And no, Penelope, Sabin wasn't being grammatically incorrect. I also know that ABBA is terrible. :p

[Eric]

Yes, take this straights vs. gays scuffle (which, w.r.t the question of ABBA, I fall unquestionably on the side of the straights) back to the Mamma Mia thread.

[Zahveed]

but staight boys don't want to admit that their heroes like Kurt Cobain and Bono admired ABBA.

As good of a songwriter I think Cobain was, he is highly overrated in present times and in Bono's case, I don't know anyone that even like U2 (with the exception of their 80's material) outside of the music critics and politic buffs.

That's not the point of this thread though, but I felt like stating a straight man's opinion.

[Penelope]

I know that ABBA is terrible.

This sentence is grammatically incorrect. You THINK ABBA is terrible.

Did they change the plot? Did they even have a plot?

No and yes, and, in fact, it has a stronger plot than The Dark Knight, which seemingly changes plots every 15 minutes.

Is ABBA even respected anymore?

Actually, moreso now than in their 70s/80s heyday; but staight boys don't want to admit that their heroes like Kurt Cobain and Bono admired ABBA.

I thought people hated ABBA and thought ABBA was terrible.

Obviously, your thought process was wrong.

[OscarGuy]

Rottentomatoes: 53%
Metacritic: 51

So, it was a disappointment with the critics, but:

Yahoo users gave it an average B+ rating
and it has a fairly solid 7.0 rating on imdb.

So, whether critics like it or not, it has a mass following among cinemagoers. Now, considering it has made $142 M at the U.S. Box office and has made more than $309 M at the worldwide box office (U.S. excluded), I'd say it a significant crowd pleaser.

While there has been a push towards critical respectability by the HFPA, they can't help but go for musicals. Dreamgirls, Walk the Line, Chicago, Moulin Rouge, Evita, Yentl...and that's all int he last two decades (plus a few years to get Yentl). So, who knows for sure, but I think it looks like a fairly good bet to take home the award. Mind you, I haven't seen it either, so I cannot comment on its quality. But, based on only the critical reception, it would probably be the subjectively worst to win the award, though I doubt it's as drearily awful as Sweeney Todd.

[Sabin]

You make a good point, but I have a couple of questions. Again: not making fun of anybody or anything:

Isn't 'Mamma Mia!' a terrible movie? I was under the assumption that it was. More so than most movies that end up winning awards. I know that ABBA is terrible. And I've seen the play years ago for my mother's birthday. Did they change the plot? Did they even have a plot? What I saw had no plot and was full of shitty ABBA music. Is ABBA even respected anymore? I thought people hated ABBA and thought ABBA was terrible.

Didn't people say that 'Mamma Mia!' was full of confused people just kind of dancing around and throwing their hands up in the air? Didn't they say that Pierce Brosnan was miserable? I don't want to offend anybody, I'm genuinely in the dark I think. I was just under the impression that everybody was on the same page in hating ABBA and the play and movie 'Mamma Mia!' except for grandparents who kept going back to 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding' because they no longer could discern the good from the bag in life. I have no doubt it'll be nominated but if 'Mamma Mia!' won, wouldn't it be the worst film ever to win any sort of award of any kind? Again: I haven't seen it. That's just what I heard.

[OscarGuy]

I think Mamma Mia! has the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical sewn up. I don't see a case for any other film to win. It's the toast of the international theater biz, continuing to perform strong overseas well into its second month in release and approaching the third. So, what would appeal more to the members of the HFPA? Mamma Mia! or Slumdog Millionaire? My money's on ABBA.

[Sabin]

I'm sure, like Michael Cunningham's novel, it started out that way. "Populist" was probably the wrong choice of words especially considering the book's reception in Germany. I don't have much faith in Stephen Daldry to make a good movie at this point. I still think it'll probably be nominated.

'Slumdog Millionaire' is a Toronte crowd-pleaser that was picked up by Fox Searchlight. It has people like Roger Ebert tickled pink and saying "Last year there was 'Juno'. This year, there is 'Slumdog Millionaire'." And every year there is usually a smaller, more enjoyable crowd-pleaser. It's a good bet for a Comedic/Musical Golden Globe nomination if not win. It just seems like everything is in place for it. That being said as much as I fear a new Daldry/Hare/Rudin & Weinstein collaboration, I'd rather watch 'The Reader' before this one.

I would love my predictions to include 'Paranoid Park', 'Reprise', and 'WALL-E', but...

[Penelope]

Sabin, have you read The Reader? It's hardly a "populist Oprah handjob"--it goes in directions that are deeply disturbing, and does so without treacle or sentiment.

[flipp525]

Slumdog Millionaire? Really? God, it looks truly dreadful.

I agree with Penelope. It looks completely fake and sort of ridiculous to me. I can think of 3-4 films that would take its place in a heartbeat.

As for the The Reader being a 'populist Oprah handjob', I have to respectfully disagree with you there, Sabin. I think the novel is startlingly and swiftly written and it happens to tell a story I've never heard before. Kate Winslet has a lot to sink her teeth into (although, I still can't help but picture Nicole Kidman in the role).



Edited By flipp525 on 1222796549

[Penelope]

Slumdog Millionaire? Really? God, it looks truly dreadful. I honestly can't think of another director who veers so wildly between brilliant (Trainspotting, Sunshine) and bilious (A Life Less Ordinary, Millions). To me, Slumdog Millionaire looks like it belongs to the latter group.