Pre-Globe Predictions

[FilmFan720]

La vie en rose was released internationally in many countries, has made more money at the domestic box office than away from her, is about a legendary singer as well. Nobody knew who Adrian brody and Hilary swank were when they first won like Cotillard they were playing real life characters. Ellen Page is in a comedy that automatically disqualifies her, the last pure comedic performance to win was over 30 years ago with Diane Keaton. Julie Christie has won before and is near absent in the second half of the film.

The Academy is mostly centered in America, however, where the film was not a runaway success. Neither was Away from Her, but I feel like that will play better on the small screen than La Vie En Rose. As for Adrian Brody and Hilary Swank, he was in a Best Picture nominee (which had a resurgence the last few weeks), who was also in the unique position of going up against four previous winners. It was a fluke category. Hilary Swank had (if I remember correctly) own nearly every award in the world before Oscar night. Plus, both were seen as future stars cementing their place in Hollywood. Cotillard is not trying to cement a place in Hollywood.

I would say Helen Hunt's was a comedic performance (and not just in terms of how bad it is, but that the film is a comedy). After 30 years, isn't it time for another one? Plus, to just call it a comedic performance is to miss the maturity and pathos she brings to the role.

[Hustler]

There's something about Julie Christie's run this year that reminds me a Sissy Spacek a few years ago for In The Bedroom. I remember her being proclaimed the favourite, and then Halley Berry won the SAG which led to her Oscar win.

To me the one good thing about this year's Oscars is that no one is a lock. Not even Christie. I think we'll be hearing a lot of jaws dropping on Oscar night.

Given your scenario, jack, who could be Christie's Berry? Cotillard or Page? Or is there an out-of-nowhere candidate in this category that could pop up nomination morning and take everything? It's a bizarrely unlocked category at the moment although Christie does have a lot going on for her at the moment.

I'm not denying that, Flipp. As of right now Christie would seem to be in the lead, but there's just something about this year's Best Actress race the reminds of the Spacek/Berry showdown. Of course, come SAG time and Christie wins them we can throw my hunch out the window.

As far as being Christie's Berry, I wold have to say Cotillard. I found Page's performance to be quite forced throughout.

You need to add that Christie is on her late 60´s and she´s an academy darling.

[avril94]

La vie en rose was released internationally in many countries, has made more money at the domestic box office than away from her, is about a legendary singer as well. Nobody knew who Adrian brody and Hilary swank were when they first won like Cotillard they were playing real life characters. Ellen Page is in a comedy that automatically disqualifies her, the last pure comedic performance to win was over 30 years ago with Diane Keaton. Julie Christie has won before and is near absent in the second half of the film.

[FilmFan720]

I really don't see how Cotillard has a chance in this field? It is a foreign performance, from a performer NO ONE has ever heard of before, in a film NO ONE saw. Plus, you have to know people will hold against her the fact that she DOESN'T SING, meaning that a third of her performance is dubbed in. She does not have the name recognition to get beyond any of the hurdles she has, especially when you have the new IT girl (Page) and a beloved screen legend (Christie) both in critically praised films. My father, who is about as vanilla of taste as you can get, has seen Away from Her five times on airplanes and loves it. He won't stop talking about it.

[avril94]

I think its neck and neck between Cotillard and Christie with Cotillard holding the lead, Christie would be the safe pick veteran actress respected.

[jack]

The difference between Blanchett and Christie, is that the first was rewarded three years ago and the latter won her first stattue in 1965.

There's something about Julie Christie's run this year that reminds me a Sissy Spacek a few years ago for In The Bedroom. I remember her being proclaimed the favourite, and then Halley Berry won the SAG which led to her Oscar win.

To me the one good thing about this year's Oscars is that no one is a lock. Not even Christie. I think we'll be hearing a lot of jaws dropping on Oscar night.

Given your scenario, jack, who could be Christie's Berry? Cotillard or Page? Or is there an out-of-nowhere candidate in this category that could pop up nomination morning and take everything? It's a bizarrely unlocked category at the moment although Christie does have a lot going on for her at the moment.

I'm not denying that, Flipp. As of right now Christie would seem to be in the lead, but there's just something about this year's Best Actress race the reminds of the Spacek/Berry showdown. Of course, come SAG time and Christie wins them we can throw my hunch out the window.

As far as being Christie's Berry, I wold have to say Cotillard. I found Page's performance to be quite forced throughout.

[flipp525]

A lot will depend on the SAGs. They could throw a monkey into the wrench and give it to Cotillard, which would push Cotillard into a good run at the win (remember, Sophia Loren was the last foreign-lingo winner)...The thing is, those who see Christie as already having been rewarded in her hey dey may not give her a second, one of the reasons Cate Blanchett's vulnerable in supporting...the question is how many people will remember Away from Her? If Sarah Polley gets a nod in either directing or adapted screenplay, then we know there were enough people to catch Christie, if not, then we'll never know for sure.

The difference between Blanchett and Christie, is that the first was rewarded three years ago and the latter won her first stattue in 1965.

There's something about Julie Christie's run this year that reminds me a Sissy Spacek a few years ago for In The Bedroom. I remember her being proclaimed the favourite, and then Halley Berry won the SAG which led to her Oscar win.

To me the one good thing about this year's Oscars is that no one is a lock. Not even Christie. I think we'll be hearing a lot of jaws dropping on Oscar night.

Given your scenario, jack, who could be Christie's Berry? Cotillard or Page? Or is there an out-of-nowhere candidate in this category that could pop up nomination morning and take everything? It's a bizarrely unlocked category at the moment although Christie does have a lot going for her.



Edited By flipp525 on 1200361198

[jack]

A lot will depend on the SAGs. They could throw a monkey into the wrench and give it to Cotillard, which would push Cotillard into a good run at the win (remember, Sophia Loren was the last foreign-lingo winner)...The thing is, those who see Christie as already having been rewarded in her hey dey may not give her a second, one of the reasons Cate Blanchett's vulnerable in supporting...the question is how many people will remember Away from Her? If Sarah Polley gets a nod in either directing or adapted screenplay, then we know there were enough people to catch Christie, if not, then we'll never know for sure.

The difference between Blanchett and Christie, is that the first was rewarded three years ago and the latter won her first stattue in 1965.

There's something about Julie Christie's run this year that reminds me a Sissy Spacek a few years ago for In The Bedroom. I remember her being proclaimed the favourite, and then Halley Berry won the SAG which led to her Oscar win.

To me the one good thing about this year's Oscars is that no one is a lock. Not even Christie. I think we'll be hearing a lot of jaws dropping on Oscar night.

[Hustler]

A lot will depend on the SAGs. They could throw a monkey into the wrench and give it to Cotillard, which would push Cotillard into a good run at the win (remember, Sophia Loren was the last foreign-lingo winner)...The thing is, those who see Christie as already having been rewarded in her hey dey may not give her a second, one of the reasons Cate Blanchett's vulnerable in supporting...the question is how many people will remember Away from Her? If Sarah Polley gets a nod in either directing or adapted screenplay, then we know there were enough people to catch Christie, if not, then we'll never know for sure.

The difference between Blanchett and Christie, is that the first was rewarded three years ago and the latter won her first stattue in 1965.

[OscarGuy]

A lot will depend on the SAGs. They could throw a monkey into the wrench and give it to Cotillard, which would push Cotillard into a good run at the win (remember, Sophia Loren was the last foreign-lingo winner)...The thing is, those who see Christie as already having been rewarded in her hey dey may not give her a second, one of the reasons Cate Blanchett's vulnerable in supporting...the question is how many people will remember Away from Her? If Sarah Polley gets a nod in either directing or adapted screenplay, then we know there were enough people to catch Christie, if not, then we'll never know for sure.

[Penelope]

Magilla has a point, one which could very well favor Christie in the race: she's a beloved screen icon--one of the few that deserves such status--and to see her give such a subtly powerful and devastating performance compared to Ellen Page's with-it, facile performance is to know that you simply must vote for Christie.

[Hustler]

Watching Christie, one of the great beauties of all time, still radiant in her late 60s, drift away before our eyes is like watching an old friend or family member fall victim to that terrible disease. We remember her young and vital in Darling and Doctor Zhivago, headstrong in The Go-Between, forthright in McCabe & Mrs. Miller, vulnerable in Don't Look Now, funny and charming in Shampoo, delightfully spry in Afterglow, marvelous as an old witch in Neverland among many other incarnations, and want to reach out and hold her and keep her safe, but we can't.

I woluld like to add The Secret Life of Words, directed by Isabel Coixet.

[Steph2]

Big Magilla - I'm one of those who wants to see Pinsent nominated too, but that's not to take anything away from Christie who is wonderful in this role and deserves to win. (I don't think anyone was really being "negative" towards her at all) I really like your idea that watching her character grow older and her mind atrophy is coterminously figured with Christie's own aging career. If she wins, it will be one of the best acting choices in Oscar history.

And flipp, I couldn't agree with you more re: Away From Her. It's my favorite film of 2007 thus far and if I had my way, it would be nominated for Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress (Dukakis).

[flipp525]

I could not agree more, Big Magilla. What an absolutely satisfying moment it will be when Christie inevitably takes the podium in order to claim one of the most deserved Oscars this past decade. And I agree with you that watching Fiona slip away before our eyes is like watching an old friend dive into a bottomless pit of oblivion. It's one of the most devastating and endearing portrayals of Alzheimer's ever committed to film.

Both Ben Affleck and Sarah Polley eeked such incredible performances out of their respective casts, I'm surprised their films aren't competing in more categories. Polley deserves to be in contention for director and adapated screenplay (Alice Munro's short fiction is quite complex and robust). And Ben Affleck's directorial feature is one of the most auspicious debuts in recent memory.

[Big Magilla]

I think the negativity toward Christie comes from people who don't know her work. It's true that Gordon Pinsent gives an equally heartbreaking performance as her husband, but most of us don't have the familiarity with him that with do with Christie.

Watching Christie, one of the great beauties of all time, still radiant in her late 60s, drift away before our eyes is like watching an old friend or family member fall victim to that terrible disease. We remember her young and vital in Darling and Doctor Zhivago, headstrong in The Go-Between, forthright in McCabe & Mrs. Miller, vulnerable in Don't Look Now, funny and charming in Shampoo, delightfully spry in Afterglow, marvelous as an old witch in Neverland among many other incarnations, and want to reach out and hold her and keep her safe, but we can't. The only thing we can do, if we're an AMPAS member, is give her another Oscar. It has nothing to do with statistics, nothing to do with the fact that Helen Mirren won last year and they've never given back to back Oscars to two old ladies, nothing to do with whether Christie campaigns or not. This is one of those Oscars they will give out of love. You can bet the ranch on it.