Golden Globe Winners

[Sabin]

I haven't seen 'Diving Bell' yet but I don't know anybody who doesn't adore the damn thing, skeptics all. The movie has quite simply won over everybody I know who went in just waiting to tear it down. I've been predicting 'Juno' for quite some time and yet despite the film's substantial weekend box office tally, I can't help but feel that because this year's Oscars almost doesn't count, this is the year they will pick the most atypical choices, which is to say the most moving.

Why 'Juno' failed to pick up an Ensemble award is quite frankly too mystifying for me to let go of. Is it possible that people view the movie as the slight trifle it really is, albeit a quite enjoyable one? I think so: and thus, the year's nominees as 'The Diving Bell and the Butterfly', 'Into the Wild', 'Michael Clayton', 'No Country for Old Men', and 'There Will Be Blood'. The winner, as it slowly permeates public consciousness is 'There Will Be Blood'. The film is an ideological simpleton but a visceral powerhouse that I don't think voters can deny. And yes, Mattieu Amalric will likely be nominated in lieu of Hirsch or Gosling. I pray Gosling.

[rolotomasi99]

i have been predicting THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY as the odd-man-out director nominee for so long, i am having trouble accepting it being nominated for best picture, no matter how good its chances are looking these days.
i am now thinking there will be a double odd-man-out like in 2001 and 1995. i could see both MICHAEL CLAYTON and JUNO being nominated for best picture, but missing out on director and being replaced by THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY and INTO THE WILD -- far more artsy films admired by the directors.

[Big Magilla]

Question: how common is it for the Globes to choose the Best Director winner for a film not nominated for Best Picture?

Clint Eastwood won his first directing Golden Globe for Bird, not nominated for best picture at either the Globes or oscars.

The Globes consider films nominated in Best Foreign Film category a best picture nomination. In 1982, for example, E.T. won Best Picture - Drama, Tootise - Best Picture Musical or Comedy and Gandhi - Best Foregin Film. Richard Attenborough was named best director for Gandhi.

[OscarGuy]

Yeah, Amalric's not on screen very often and even when he is, most of his face is hidden or displayed only in extreme close-up. He probably has a grand total of 30 minutes where we actually get to see his face.

[Penelope]

Am I alone in thinking that if The Diving Bell and the Butterfly makes it in for Best Picture, and possibly Best Director, then we may end up seeing Mathieu Amalric surprise in Best Actor? Maybe in place of George Clooney?

The absence of Amalric, even with Diving Bell's massive surge of support in recent weeks, has been mildly baffling to me. Such a baity role in such a widely-loved film... I haven't seen the film yet but can anyone explain this complete shut-out?

Nearly half the film is photographed from Jean-Dominique's point-of-view, meaning Amalric is technically off-screen through much of the film, though we hear his voice throughout.

Plus, despite being a "baity" role, he doesn't play it in a "baity" way.

[rudeboy]

Am I alone in thinking that if The Diving Bell and the Butterfly makes it in for Best Picture, and possibly Best Director, then we may end up seeing Mathieu Amalric surprise in Best Actor? Maybe in place of George Clooney?

The absence of Amalric, even with Diving Bell's massive surge of support in recent weeks, has been mildly baffling to me. Such a baity role in such a widely-loved film... I haven't seen the film yet but can anyone explain this complete shut-out?

That he didn't even make the BAFTA longlist is worrying but he has a (slim) chance of making it to the oscars, carried on the wave of support. But supporting actor Max von Sydow has a better chance of representing his fim, and if Amalric is somehow nominated he certainly won't be replacing Clooney.

[rudeboy]

Question: how common is it for the Globes to choose the Best Director winner for a film not nominated for Best Picture?

Clint Eastwood won his first directing Golden Globe for Bird, not nominated for best picture at either the Globes or oscars.

[Steph2]

I can't see a certain Original Screenplay winner with box office clout miss out on a Best Picture nomination.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind? Or am I just remembering it wrong and the film actually did poorly at the box office? Everyone I know seems to agree it's a great film, but I could be wrong about how well it did back then. I seem to recall it being in the same league as Juno?

Though I agree with you, I think Juno has more than a decent shot of getting in.

Edit: Oops never mind. I just searched box office mojo and Eternal Sunshine made half of what Juno has currently made.

[MovieWes]

I think it's a near-given that if "Diving Bell" or "Into the Wild" doesn't make the cut, Schnabel or Penn almost certainly will.

However, I'm (tentatively) predicting "Diving Bell" and "Into the Wild" will be nominated, but not "Juno." And if that is the outcome, who would the odd-man-out director then be in that case? I don't think there would be one. (And if there is one... well, there aren't too many options left, so why NOT Cronenberg?)

This year, every director that fits your odd-man-out profile also has a film that's just THIS close to getting a Best Picture nom. I don't think any of your examples, or Original BJs examples, had a film so strongly in contention as Schnabel and Penn does (except maybe for Greengrass's United 93.) It does SOUND right for Schnabel to make it and "Diving Bell" to miss. Considering Diving Bell's upward trajectory, I would be very suprised if that were to happen... and then again, I wouldn't be.

As much as Damien may hate hearing this, I think that Sidney Lumet could be our lone director nominee. A lot of Oscar voters may cast a sentimental vote for Lumet as a final salute to a much-loved industry veteran who may not have many (if any) opportunities left for a directing nomination.



Edited By MovieWes on 1200375545

[The Original BJ]

Mike Leigh was neither a winner nor runner-up for any major critics award the year he was a surprise Oscar nominee for Vera Drake. And where did the Meirelles nomination come from?! Just because Cronenberg and Fincher have been absent from precursors doesn't mean they're completely out. It's interesting how the lone director spot is almost like its own perennial category with its own rules: there's often a director who shortlists without much precursor support.

Zodiac has been receiving mentions here and there -- the USC and WGA screenplay nods most clearly. I agree with Sonic, though, that Cronenberg could also be a surprise director nominee, particularly given Eastern Promises's strong Globe showing. (Plus, I hope they feel guilty for his History of Violence snub two years ago.)

Sonic, you're also right that it seems like none of the DGA are tremendously weak, and all could make it. But Picture/Director match-ups are so rare it's practically like betting on ties; it's far more likely for a candidate to come from nowhere than for all of the obvious ones to make it.

[Sonic Youth]

Question: how common is it for the Globes to choose the Best Director winner for a film not nominated for Best Picture?

I understand a technicality prevented "Diving Bell" from being nominated for Best Picture-Drama (never mind that foreign language films are eligible in every other category.) I know the same thing happened with Ang Lee and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon". Any other examples?



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1200373001

[Sonic Youth]

I think it's a near-given that if "Diving Bell" or "Into the Wild" doesn't make the cut, Schnabel or Penn almost certainly will.

However, I'm (tentatively) predicting "Diving Bell" and "Into the Wild" will be nominated, but not "Juno." And if that is the outcome, who would the odd-man-out director then be in that case? I don't think there would be one. (And if there is one... well, there aren't too many options left, so why NOT Cronenberg?)

This year, every director that fits your odd-man-out profile also has a film that's just THIS close to getting a Best Picture nom. I don't think any of your examples, or Original BJs examples, had a film so strongly in contention as Schnabel and Penn does (except maybe for Greengrass's United 93.) It does SOUND right for Schnabel to make it and "Diving Bell" to miss. Considering Diving Bell's upward trajectory, I would be very suprised if that were to happen... and then again, I wouldn't be.

[matthew]

Also, I have a difficult time seeing Penn as the odd-man-out director, which it seems like he would likely be if Juno nabbed the Best Picture spot. Typically the odd-man-out director is a choice who hasn't been cited by the DGA: Daldry, Lynch, Almodóvar, Meirelles, Leigh, Greengrass. The last four cases were all somewhat surprising, as they hadn't been cited by major precursors. I predict this year's odd-man-out director to be David Fincher, and that's my out-on-a-limb prediction for the year.

You post has given me more confidence.

And if Best Picture is "Diving Bell", "Into the Wild", "Michael Clayton", "No Country" and "Blood", then I'm not so sure there WILL be an odd-man-out director this year. If my Best Picture prediction pans out, I think we'll be five-for-five in the Picture-Director matchup. "Michael Clayton" would seem to be the one most vulnerable to a missed director nod, but whatever flaws the film may have, you can't say it's a mere point-and-shoot film.

But if it does miss a director nom, I'm predicting David Cronenberg.

I think that the odd director out is usually a for a film that has received strong critical support but too non-mainstream for Academy tastes (ie. Lynch, Almodovar, Greengrass, etc.) Combined with a well-known or respected director and you have the perfect recipie for a split. In the cases of Almodovar, Greengrass and Leigh; all of them won at least one major critics pre-cursor (either for themselves of their films) before going into the Oscars. (Off the top of my head Almodovar - LAFCA, Greengrass - NYFCC, Leigh - NYFCC/NSFC) I think taking that into account, it is not too likely that Cronenberg or Fincher will receive nominations for their films, as they have been almost completely absent from any precursor awards. That's why I'm thinking the split might be a Picture - Juno, Director - Julian Schabel split...

[rolotomasi99]

I don't know if this is reaching; but, I wonder if some of the surprising interest in There Will Be Blood is that it is seen as a metaphor for the Iraq War, in that it is about fighting over oil, even if the fighting occurs in early-20th-centruy Texas.

Not everything is about the war, you know. I loved the film, because it was about specific characters who were well-played by good actors and well-directed by a good director. I didn't see any direct correlation in the film at all to anything happening in Iraq. Why, because it's about oil? That makes no sense.

i agree. the 1976 version of KING KONG has more mid-east oil association than THERE WILL BE BLOOD. seriously.

every once in a while, a truly well made movie receives recognition from mainstream audiences. amazingly we had two films this year -- NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN being the other.

day-lewis and anderson's commitment to their art i think has really blown people away, even people who do not usually consider film art. like scorsese and deniro in TAXI DRIVER and RAGING BULL, the power and beauty of this piece of cinema cannot be denied. i think people want to be able to say they saw a classic before it was known as a classic.

just my bullshit theory. i just do not think it has anything to do with the current politics surrounding oil.

[Sonic Youth]

One more thought. Now that "There Will Be Blood" and "Diving Bell" are rapidly growing in public and voter awareness, I think after the noms are announced "No Country" will have peaked.