E.W. Predictions

[bettestreep2004]

I am surprised with the lack of support for Atonement recently. IMO it is far far better than the alleged front runner - No Country, and it is the sort of film the Academy usually goes for ie. big sweeping epics!

As for supporting nods - Hal Holbrook may win it over John Travolta. Depends on who the academy likes more.
And I think Ruby Dee will get one of those "career" oscars they love to hand out to the more senior performers. And the fact that she gave Denzel the smack many of us were hoping for in the overrated American Gangster.

Haven't seen Into the wild - but it seems it is fast becoming the "sleeper" film that many ignored at the start but has built momentum during the latter days of the campaign.

I'm still rooting for Atonement though - I was just mesmerised by the whole film!

[mashari]

I haven't seen 'Wild' yet, but I still support the notion that Catharine may pose a serious threat to Ryan & Blanchett next month. She just seems like the kind of steadily working actress her peers would love and if her film lands a BP nom, which isn't out of the question, she could be the surprise this category hasn't had since Harden in '01.



Edited By mashari on 1200111476

[Sabin]

I think Magilla could be right. People are talking about Blanchett and Ryan, but Catherine Keener gives a beautiful, more sympathetic performance that voters might enjoy more than a coke whore mom or a Dylan pastiche. I'm pretty confident that Hal Holbrook is going to win the Oscar. I think Casey Affleck gave the performance of the year and I'd still probably vote for Holbrook. His performance is shattering. It destroys you. My father was in tears. I was in tears. I think he's got it in the bag. I don't care how many awards Javier Bardem picks up.

At this point, I think the only unrealistic prediction Magilla made is that the song from 'Once' won't win. For every year of star-fucking (Melissa Etheridge over the 'Dreamgirls' songs), there's one or two of out-of-the-blue-bugfuck ('The Motorcycle Diaries' song, 3-6 Mafia over Dolly Parton). I think "Falling Slowly" has the makings of being the high point of a controversial show, and while I prefer "Guaranteed" by a significant margin, I don't see Eddie Vedder topping those love lorn cuties from 'Once'.

[Akash]

I agree Flipp. Two upsets in supporting seem unlikely and if No Country enters the Oscar race as the Best Picture favorite, then Bardem's chances become better (they usually like giving at least one acting award to the Best picture winner). Despite her lock status (and she's definitely the frontrunner right now), Amy Ryan could be the most vulnerable if Into the Wild gains momentum and voters want to reward it somewhere. This will be Keener's third nomination and she's such a wonderful actress (and wonderful in this role too) and highly respected, and is the kind of character actor this award category was created for, that she could actually upset Ryan. A three time nominated actress in a Best Picture nominee can certainly take down a relatively little known critics favorite who may be her film's only nomination (this is something Ryan fans need to watch out for. If Gone Baby Gone receives only one nomination, she could be in trouble).

I'm not saying it will happen mind you, but it's a possibility depending on how momentum for her film builds as the Oscars draw closer.

Oscar Guy may get the last laugh after all

[flipp525]

I'm also anticipating at least 3 wins - supporting actor, supporting actress and song.

That's pretty bold, Magilla. You think Holbrook and Keener will both knock off the frontrunners (Bardem and Ryan)? I think it's a possibility in one of the supporting categories but both is kind of a stretch.

[Big Magilla]

I'm expecting at least 7 nominations for Into the Wild - picture, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, director, adapted screenplay and at least one song. I'm also anticipating at least 3 wins - supporting actor, supporting actress and song.

[Sonic Youth]

Best Adapted Screenplay

FYC: Into the Wild

The article's deadline must have been before the DGA noms (not to mention the WGA noms), because Into the Wild has suddenly become a strong possiblity in several major categories.

It also means I wasn't the only one hesitant about Into the Wild's chances, until recently.

[cam]

I think that is the probable list, don't you? It sort of covers all the biggies.

[Big Magilla]

Every year they're a little off, maybe more than a little this year. Although they list numerous alternatives with diminishing chances, I've only listed the first two they mentioin in each of the top eight categories as well as their mostly off-the-wall recommnedations (FYC).

In order of likliehood:

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men
Atonement
Michael Clayton
There Will be Blood
Juno

Possible: Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

FYC: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis
George Clooney
Johnny Depp
Viggo Mortensen
Ryan Gosling

Possible: Emile Hirsch, James McAvoy

FYC: Christian Bale, Rescue Dawn

Best Actress
Julie Christie
Ellen Page
Marion Cotillard
Angelina Jolie
Laura Linney

Possible: Keira Knightley, Helena Bonham Carter

FYC: Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tom Wilkinson
Hal Holbrook
Casey Affleck

Possible: John Travolta, Paul Dano

FYC: J.K. Simmons, Juno

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan
Cate Blanchett
Tilda Swinton
Ruby Dee
Catherine Keener

Possible: Vanessa Redgrae, Julia Roberts
FYC: Emily Mortimer, Lars and teh Real Girl

Best Director
The Coens
Paul Thomas Anderson
Joe Wright
Julian Schnabel
Sean Penn

Possible: Jason Reitman, Tony Gilroy

FYC: David Cronenberg, Eastern Promises

Best Original Screenplay
Juno
The Savages
Lars and teh Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Possible: Waitress, Eastern Promises

FYC: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Best Adapted Screenplay
No Country for Old Men
Atonment
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will Be Blood
Charlie Wilson's War

Possible: The Kite Runner, Away From Her

FYC: Into the Wild