OscarGuy wrote:Eric, let's not forget that the Globes also ignored critics' darling Thin Red Line back in 1998. When I think of the contenders this year, There Will Be Blood seems the most similar in trajectory, IMO.
I think The Thin Red Line opened late. That's why it wasn't able to factor in the Golden Globes.
As for The Cider House Rules/The Green Mile resurrection back in 1999, that was during the old voting period. Don't you think the shorter voting period may be a factor?
Sonic Youth wrote:...looks like a feasible slate to me at this point. (But if TDBATB or TWBB fails, replace with Michael Collins. I refuse to even acknowledge American Gangster's existence.)
Guess you meant "Clayton"...
(Never liked that much Michael Collins, another GG loved one, but an eventual failure come oscar announcements)
Haven't seen the film, but after all the hype around Jesse James etc. and after a Venice win, I thought Pitt had a chance. Guess this shuts him out of competition...
Felt happy for Amy Adams... and for Blanchet in I'm not There (the other Venice winner)...
I've been wondering how would it look like to have Polley as the 4th woman nominated for directing... guess it's not going to happen... But deep inside I still think Juno seems the kind of film that lately charms academy voters for some reason (ala Miss Sunshine last year) over more "expected" films... who knows...
And for some reason, I don't want to see Ridley Scott shooing in on Academy Nominations again, not for this specific film...
Finally: Oh my god! how bad is Travolta in Hairspray that everyone here dislikes him! LOL, can't wait to see that!
"If you place an object in a museum, does that make this object a piece of art?" - The Square (2017)
OscarGuy wrote:Dylanfan, Sopranos is done. It's over. The GG's are on the calendar year, which means that if they didn't get nods this year, they won't get anymore because the show ended within the 2007 awards year.
The soprano's comment about next year was sarcasim.
Yes. Or a film that rides a charming, respected, well liked actor's nomination or potential win to a Best Picture nomination. In addition to Erin think Capote (even though I don't find Hoffman charming or likable, but others seem to) The Queen, Ray, Elizabeth.
I think Michael Clayton may very well be this year's Erin Brockovich. Socially relevant film that isn't too controversial. It does make a lot of sense. It's a safe choice and the GGs really boosted its profile (with three acting nominations and a best drama pic nod).
I'm still formulating my new predix in my head. I'll probably have something by weekend's end.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
No question: 1999 lives as the permanent rebuke to anyone who'd relax prematurely. Kite Runner and Gangster are certainly lurking out there to spoil our breakfasts the way Cider House and Green Mile did. (Plus, as I say, I haven't SEEN some of these movies -- I may end up unexpectedly despising some critical favorite) It is, however, as you imply, generally the case that the biggest disappointments come in years, as 1999 (and 1969), when there is an over-abundance of exciting films to choose from. This year, No Country and Blood seem so clearly marked as the big critics' faves that focus will not be so split.
And, Eric, I'd contend that it's not just the hipness level of the coolest nominees that counts, but the lack of utter squareness among the other nominees. To wit: Atonement and Sweeney Todd may not be breakthrough art, but, based on the source material, I don't expect them to be Crash or Finding Neverland or Seabiscuit, either.
Penelope wrote:MSNBC is reporting Atonement leads with 7 nominations; Charlie Wilson's War is in second place with 5 nods.
So hopefully it will take its place among The Hours and Babel, as films with the most Globe nominations that never had a chance at actually winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Or maybe we'll be even luckier and it will sit with Cold Mountain.
No PTA may not necessarily mean bad news for There Will Be Blood. The Globes didn't nominate Polanski in 2002, and the group has been diverging from the Oscars lately -- they didn't even nominate Crash for Best Picture and well, we all know how that one turned out. They also haven't picked the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner in the past three years, despite having two categories for Drama and Comedy.
Either way though, these nominations were a snooze. And I guess Angelina Jolie will be up for her second Oscar nomination after all.
And, yeah, 1999's Oscar slate was, in relation to what was actually going on in the mainstream American cinema that is prime Oscar territory, as disappointing as any in recent memory.
Out of curiosity, though, what are 2007's "hip" candidates beyond the Coens and PTA?
You named 'em.
I mean, I think Assassination of Jesse James and I'm Not There are pretty hip, but at this point I'm just hoping neither is an Oscar bust.
The Original BJ wrote:That being said, I maintain my annual worries.
You should. I mean this is the group who ignored Malkovich and Plummer, easily two of the best supporting performances of that year, and nominated Michael Clarke Duncan instead. It's just like, "Um, excuse me, but what?"
Enjoy the Globes, Julia. That's pretty much as close as you're getting to any award this season.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
And, yeah, 1999's Oscar slate was, in relation to what was actually going on in the mainstream American cinema that is prime Oscar territory, as disappointing as any in recent memory.
Out of curiosity, though, what are 2007's "hip" candidates beyond the Coens and PTA?
One more thing, Tee: I hesitate to jinx the race by saying this year's batch is of award contenders is of a higher quality than usual. In my opinion, that assumes the bad Globe choices won't carry over, and that the Oscars won't make their own bad choices.
I thought the exact same thing at this point in '99, with an unusually strong leader in American Beauty (hold the snide comments), and critically acclaimed, Globe-annointed films like The Insider, Being John Malkovich, and The Talented Mr. Ripley leading the pack. I thought, given the critics' prizes, Mike Leigh or David Lynch could at least be a lone director nominee. And hip studio films like Magnolia, Toy Story 2, and Three Kings would do well enough down-ballot.
Flash forward to nomination morning: Beauty did okay, but resurrected-from-hell candidates like Cider House Rules and Green Mile stormed the Best Picture list. The actors rejected Damon, Witherspoon, Malkovich, Plummer, Diaz, AND Moore (all of whom could have conceivably placed), The Straight Story and Toy Story 2 barely muscled up a nod each, and Three Kings was nowhere to be found. I had completely accepted that a divisive, arty effort like Eyes Wide Shut wouldn't do well (just to name one)...but to watch so many critically hailed mainstream efforts fall by the wayside pained my eyes.
I'm not saying '07 will necessarily yield a similar outcome. With fewer "hip" candidates, support won't be as splintered. That being said, I maintain my annual worries.
Eric, let's not forget that the Globes also ignored critics' darling Thin Red Line back in 1998. When I think of the contenders this year, There Will Be Blood seems the most similar in trajectory, IMO.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Greg wrote:Does anyone think The Diving Bell & The Butterfly can go all the way to a Best Picture nomination?
Not a crazy idea at all. It's been slowly emerging as a major threat, and this seals it.
The film, Schnabel and the screenplay having been looking stronger and stronger. Maybe a Letters from Iwo Jima type pick.
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No County for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd...
...looks like a feasible slate to me at this point. (But if TDBATB or TWBB fails, replace with Michael Collins. I refuse to even acknowledge American Gangster's existence.)
