January Predictions

[flipp525]

BEST ACTRESS
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby

Seems like Maggie Gyllenhaal now has two "almost-just-made-it" lead nods (Secretary, Sherrybaby) to match her husband's Best Supporting Actor ones (Shattered Glass, Kinsey).



Edited By flipp525 on 1169613253

[rudeboy]

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
Martin Scorsese for The Departed
Bill Condon for Dreamgirls
Guillermo del Toro for Pan’s Labyrinth
Stephen Frears for The Queen

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed
Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole for Venus
Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland

Best Actress
Penélope Cruz for Volver
Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren for The Queen
Meryl Streep for The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet for Little Children

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson for The Departed
Michael Sheen for The Queen

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett for Notes on a Scandal
Emily Blunt for The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi for Babel

Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen
Volver

Best Adapted Screenplay
Children of Men
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

Best Cinematography
Apocalypto
Babel
Children of Men
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima

Best Editing
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
United 93

Best Art Direction
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
The Fountain
The Painted Veil
Pan’s Labyrinth

Best Costume Design
Dreamgirls
The Fountain
Marie-Antoinette
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen

Best Sound
Apocalypto
Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima

Best Sound Editing
Casino Royale
Children of Men
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
World Trade Center

Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Best Visual Effects
Casino Royale
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Superman Returns

Best Original Score
The Da Vinci Code
The Fountain
The Illusionist
The Painted Veil
The Queen

Best Song
‘A Father’s Way’ – The Pursuit of Happyness
‘Listen’ – Dreamgirls
‘Love You I Do’ – Dreamgirls
‘Never Gonna Break Your Faith’ – Bobby
‘Til the End of Time’ – Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Best Foreign Language Film
Black Book
Days of Glory
The Lives of Others
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver

[Hudster734]

Picture

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93

Director

Martin Scorsese for The Departed
Guillermo Del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth
Clint Eastwood for Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears for The Queen
Paul Greengrass for United 93

Actor

Leonardo Dicaprio for The Departed
Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole for Venus
Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness
Forrest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland

Actress

Penelope Cruz for Volver
Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren for The Queen
Meryl Streep for The Devil wears Prada
Kate Winslet for Little Children

Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson for The Departed
Michael Sheen for The Queen
Mark Wahlburg for The Departed

Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett for Notes on a Scandal
Emily Blunt for The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine
Rinko Kikuchi for Babel
Jennifer Hudson for Dream Girls

Original Screenplay

Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
United 93

Adapted Screenplay

Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

Best Art Direction

Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth

Costume Design

Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Painted Veil

Best Score

Babel
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

Best Cinematography

Apocalypto
Children of Men
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pan's Labyrinth

Best Film Editing

Babel
Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
United 93

Best Sound

Casino Royale
Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima

Best Sound Editing

Flags of our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean
The Prestige
United 93
World Trade Center

Best Makeup

Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean

Best Song

Dreamgirls (Listen)
An Inconvenient Truth
Casino Royale
Happy Feet
Bobby

Best Visual Effects

Casino Royale
Night at the Museum
Pirates of the Caribbean

Animated Film

Cars
Flushed Away
Happy Feet

[Jim20]

Happy Oscar nominations eve, everyone

My final predictions are:


PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen


ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jack Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

SUPPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Alfonso Cuaron, Children of Men
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93
Volver

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Children of Men
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Thank You For Smoking

ART DIRECTION
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Apocalypto
Babel
Children of Men
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth

COSTUME DESIGN
The Black Dahlia
Curse of the Golden Flower
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Marie Antoinette

FILM EDITING
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93

MAKEUP
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel
The Da Vinci Code
The Fountain
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil

ORIGINAL SONG
Bobby
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet
An Inconvenient Truth
The Pursuit of Happyness

SOUND MIXING
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
World Trade Center

SOUND EDITING
Cars
The Departed
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
World Trade Center

VISUAL EFFECTS
Night at the Museum
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns


TALLY

Babel - 8 nominations
The Departed - 8 nominations
Dreamgirls - 8 nominations
Little Miss Sunshine - 4 nominations
The Queen - 5 nominations

[Sabin]

How did I do?

BEST PICTURE
'Babel'
'The Departed'
'Dreamgirls'
'Little Miss Sunshine'
'The Queen'

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris ~ 'Little Miss Sunshine'
Clint Eastwood ~ 'Letters from Iwo Jima'
Stephen Frears ~ 'The Queen'
Alejandro Gonzalez Innartu ~ 'Babel'
Martin Scorsese ~ 'The Departed'

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio ~ 'The Departed'
Ryan Gosling ~ 'Half Nelson'
Peter O'Toole ~ 'Venus'
Will Smith ~ 'The Pursuit of Happyness'
Forest Whitaker ~ 'The Last King of Scotland'

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz ~ 'Volver'
Judi Dench ~ 'Notes on a Scandal'
Helen Mirren ~ 'The Queen'
Meryl Streep ~ 'The Devil Wears Prada'
Kate Winslet ~ 'Little Children'

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin ~ 'Little Miss Sunshine'
Djimon Hounsou ~ 'Blood Diamond'
Eddie Murphy ~ 'Dreamgirls'
Jack Nicholson ~ 'The Departed'
Brad Pitt ~ 'Babel'

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barazza ~ 'Babel'
Cate Blanchett ~ 'Notes on a Scandal'
Abigail Breslin ~ 'Little Miss Sunshine'
Jennifer Hudson ~ 'Dreamgirls'
Rinko Kikuchi ~ 'Babel'

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
'Babel'
'Letters from Iwo Jima'
'Little Miss Sunshine'
'Pan's Labyrinth'
'The Queen'

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
'The Departed'
'Dreamgirls'
'Little Children'
'Notes on a Scandal'
'Thank You for Smoking'

BEST SCORE
'Babel'
'The Da Vinci Code'
'The Illusionist'
'The Painted Veil'
'Pan's Labyrinth'

BEST SONG
"I Need to Wake Up" ~ 'An Inconvenient Truth'
"Listen" ~ 'Dreamgirls'
"Never Gonna Break My Faith" ~ 'Bobby'
"Song of the Heart" ~ 'Happy Feet'
"Upside Down" ~ 'Curious George'

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
'Days of Glory'
'The Lives of Others'
'Pan's Labyrinth'
'Vitus'
'Volver'

BEST ANIMATED FILM
'Cars'
'Happy Feet'
'Monster House'
(if five - 'Flushed Away' & 'Over the Hedge')

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
'The Black Dahlia'
'Children of Men'
'The Good Sheperd'
'Letters from Iwo Jima'
'Pan's Labyrinth'

BEST FILM EDITING
'Babel'
'Casino Royale'
'The Departed'
'Dreamgirls'
'United 93'

BEST ART DIRECTION
'Children of Men'
'Curse of the Golden Flower'
'Dreamgirls'
'Marie Antoinette'
'Pan's Labyrinth'

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
'The Curse of the Golden Flower'
'The Devil Wears Prada'
'Dreamgirls'
'Marie Antoinette'
'Pan's Labyrinth'

BEST MAKEUP
'Apocalypto'
'Pan's Labyrinth'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'
(if five: 'Click' & 'The Prestige')

BEST SOUND MIXING
'Blood Diamond'
'The Departed'
'Dreamgirls'
'Flags of Our Fathers'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
'Cars'
'Flags of Our Fathers'
'Happy Feet'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'
'Superman Returns'

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
'Night at the Museum'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'
'Superman Returns'

BEST DOCUMENTARY
'Deliver Us from Evil'
'An Inconvenient Truth'
'Iraq in Fragments'
'Shut Up & Sing'
'The War Tapes'



Edited By Sabin on 1169566657

[Sonic Youth]

Greatest fear: Bobby for Best Picture.

After cajoling poor Oscar Guy until he took it out of his predictions, the film will end up getting nominated after all, and OG will then defenestrate my registration.

[Sonic Youth]

Greatest wish: to be online after the nomination announcements are made.

But it's probably not happening. I'll still be able to catch the nominations on TV. After that, I'll be occupied with other things until tomorrow evening. Can you imagine such deprivation?

Some years when I was working I had to miss the nominations announcement, but I could always go online and read what they were. Sometimes I'd forgo reading the nominations and just look at all the comments you guys would make in the immediate aftermath. One year, it was "Say, these aren't so bad! Nice surprises." Another year, it was "Boy, they're really lame and boring this time!" Probably both times there was someone going "####! ####! ####! I give up on these jerks for good." And going by that, I'd try to figure out what exactly happened. If you can hold out from reading the noms for five minutes (yeah, right), you should try it. And it helps stave off that immediate blow of disappointment during those bad years when AMPAS finds new ways to disgust you. But I won't be able to do that this year, or participate in the discussion. How disappointing.

On the other hand, it's nice not having a stake in any of the races. I've seen so little this year, there's nothing I've loved or hated, so I can observe the proceedings from the outside. And wow, for once I'm not thinking "ohmygod, they're tomorrow!!" No tension, no consternation, none of that. What a silly routine this is, over nothing! And I'll probably revert back to the regular mindset next year.

Anyway, I wish I could join you all. But have fun tomorrow! Or at least, don't be too upset.

[Akash]

Deepest Fear: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat (Actor) over the much more deserving Matt Damon, Ryan Gosling, etc.

Ugh. I couldn't agree more! Cohen was hilarious at the Globes but this smug man and his odious little film need to go away.

[mashari]

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed
Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole in Venus
Will Smith in The Pursuit Of Happyness
Forrest Whitaker in The Last King Of Scotland

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz in Volver
Judi Dench in Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren in The Queen
Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prade
Kate Winslet in Little Children

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine
Brad Pitt in Babel
Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg in The Departed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rinko Kikuchi in Babel
Adriana Barraza in Babel
Cate Blanchett in Notes On A Scandal
Emily Blunt in The Devil Wears Prada
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls

BEST DIRECTOR
Bill Condon for Dreamgirls
J.D. & V.F for Little Miss Sunshine
Stephen Frears for The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
Martin Scorsese for The Departed

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen
Volver

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Children Of Man
The Departed
Little Children
Notes On A Scandal
Thank You For Smoking

[OscarGuy]

I don't think Tom Charity really knows what he's talking about. Putting Kikuchi in the doesn't stand a chance category is as ludicrous as his inclusion of Annette Bening on the bubble...

[dws1982]

Wishes: Sacha Baron Cohen for Best Actor. I think there's a middlebrow snobbery at work with respect to this performance. Also Ken Watanabe in the same category. Adam Beach in Support, and in techs I'd like to see A Prairie Home Companion get some love in Editing and Sound, although it isn't flashy enough in either category to get mentioned.

Fears: The Little Miss Sunshine directors knocking out a more deserving director (like Eastwood or Cuaron among the legitimate contenders). The main fear though is that there are no deviations from the widely predicted Best Picture/Actor/Actress/Supporting Actress lineups.

[Big Magilla]

And while they're at it, they can stick a fork in Running With Scissors and Annette Bening's chances as well. I don't know why Brad Pitt keeps showing up on these lists. He needs to stay home and help Angelina change diapers on Oscar night.

[flipp525]

Supporting Actor: Michael Pena ("World Trade Center").

Can't they just stick a fork in that movie already? WTC is done.

Some odd positioning of certain actors below but I liked Charity's inclusion of Phyllis Somerville, Danny Huston, Catherine O'Hara, Matt Damon, Children of Men, etc.

No way, of course, does Rinko Kukuchi belong in the 'not a chance' category.

Analysis: And Oscar nominations will go to...
POSTED: 12:52 p.m. EST, January 22, 2007
By Tom Charity
Special to CNN

(CNN) -- The first-round votes are in, the top fives are being finalized, and now all that's left is the announcement of the nominations for the 79th annual Academy Awards. The big moment is slated for Tuesday morning at 8:38 a.m. ET (5:38 a.m. on the West Coast).

After last year's upset win for "Crash," this year is shaping up to be another tight race. The critics' awards spread the love, with "The Queen," "The Departed," "United 93," "Letters from Iwo Jima" and "Little Children" all honored. The Golden Globes gave "Babel" a last-minute push.

And then there's the popular favorite, "Dreamgirls," which looks like a good bet to pick up the lion's share of nominations. Adding Forest Whitaker, who's way out in front in the best actor race, this could be an exceptional year for the recognition of African-American performers.

But questions will be asked about the many well-regarded movies, which for one reason or another haven't been able to capitalize on strong reviews to mount a serious Oscar push.

All that being said, here are one man's Oscar possibilities. Caveat lector, of course. (And tell us what you think the nominees will be.)

Best Picture

Shoo-ins: "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," "The Queen"

On the bubble: "Babel," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Children," "Little Miss Sunshine," "United 93"

Deserves it but doesn't stand a chance: "Children of Men," "The Good Shepherd," "Pan's Labyrinth"

This looks likely to become a straight-out tussle between the instinct to reward Martin Scorsese before it's too late and the perennial lure of old-fashioned showbiz glitz. "The Queen" has replaced "Little Miss Sunshine" as the little movie everybody loves to love, while "Little Children" is probably a shade too seedy for comfort. Though I wouldn't rule it out completely, uncertain studio handling has probably finished the chances of "Letters From Iwo Jima" and the also-rans in this category (a better list, in my opinion, than the shoo-ins). But even with a concerted campaign and strong critical support, "United 93" may be too near-the-knuckle for Oscar -- which could be good news for "Babel."
Best actor

Shoo-ins: Peter O'Toole ("Venus"), Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness"), Forest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland")

On the bubble: Sacha Baron Cohen ("Borat"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Departed"), Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson")

Deserves it but doesn't stand a chance: Matt Damon ("The Good Shepherd"), Aaron Eckhart ("Thank You for Smoking"), Clive Owen ("Children of Men"), Ken Watanabe ("Letters From Iwo Jima")

For my money Sacha Baron Cohen gave the most inspired performance of the year, and after his Golden Globe win he may just become a welcome wild card in the Oscar fold. Ryan Gosling is electrifying as a drug-addicted teacher in "Half Nelson," but the edgy indie movie has grossed less than $3 million. DiCaprio is a likelier candidate, though Oscar voters will have to choose between the showier role in "Blood Diamond" or the superior film, "The Departed."

Best Actress

Shoo-ins: Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"), Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal")

On the bubble: Annette Bening ("Running with Scissors"), Penelope Cruz ("Volver"), Kate Winslet ("Little Children")

Deserves it but doesn't stand a chance: Laura Dern ("Inland Empire"), Naomi Watts ("The Painted Veil")

And they say that actresses disappear after 40! Mirren's two Globe wins put her in the front row -- Oscar could very well go for a King and Queen this year -- though Meryl Streep (who also a Globe winner, in the musical or comedy division) also gives a formidable performance. (Admittedly, it's a supporting performance, but as with "The Last King of Scotland," the Academy will certainly overlook the picture's ostensible lead, Anne Hathaway.) Kate Winslet could make it three British contenders here, and I'm hoping Penelope Cruz nabs the fifth spot for "Volver."

Best Supporting Actor

Shoo-ins: Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls"), Jack Nicholson ("The Departed"), Brad Pitt ("Babel"), Michael Sheen ("The Queen")

On the bubble: Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Jackie Earle Haley ("Little Children"), Mark Wahlberg ("The Departed")

Deserves it but doesn't stand a chance: Ben Affleck ("Hollywoodland"), Adam Beach ("Flags of Our Fathers"), Michael Caine ("Children of Men"), Ken Davitian ("Borat"), Danny Huston ("The Proposition")

For good or ill, it was impossible to ignore Jack Nicholson in "The Departed," and a nomination is in the bag for one of Oscar's most loyal attendants. Brad Pitt and Eddie Murphy showed us something new this year, and will reap the rewards. After that it gets tricky: a pedophile? A homophobic drug-taking grandpa? Or Mark Wahlberg's exercise in creative profanity? It would be nice if enough members widened the net to show some respect to Ben Affleck for "Hollywoodland" (and his costar Diane Lane, for that matter), but my hunch is Wahlberg will get the nod.

Best Supporting Actress

Shoo-ins: Adrianna Barraza ("Babel"), Cate Blanchett ("Notes on a Scandal"), Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls")

On the bubble: Emily Blunt ("The Devil Wears Prada"), Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Toni Collette ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Phyllis Somerville ("Little Children")

Deserves it but doesn't stand a chance: Vera Farmiga ("The Departed"), Rinko Kikuchi ("Babel"), Diane Lane ("Hollywoodland"), Catherine O'Hara ("For Your Consideration")

This could break in a number of ways. Cate Blanchett could theoretically be nominated for three fine supporting performances this year (the others came in "The Good German" and "Babel"). Similarly, three "Babel" costars could walk up the red carpet together. Emily Blunt was sensational in "The Devil Wears Prada," and surely deserves a promotion. Vera Farmiga is another name to watch after her keenly observed roles in "The Departed" and "Breaking and Entering." But which ever way the nominations fall, there is only going to be one winner, and her name is (drum roll please) ... Jennifer Hudson.

Best Director

Shoo-ins: Bill Condon ("Dreamgirls"), Martin Scorsese ("The Departed")

On the bubble: Clint Eastwood ("Letters From Iwo Jima"), Todd Field ("Little Children"), Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Stephen Frears ("The Queen"), Paul Greengrass ("United 93"), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu ("Babel")

Deserves it but doesn't stand a chance: Pedro Almodovar ("Volver"), Robert Altman ("A Prairie Home Companion"), Alfonso Cuaron ("Children of Men"), Michel Gondry ("The Science of Sleep"), Guillermo Del Toro ("Pan's Labyrinth")

Is it going to be Scorsese's year at last? Surely he won't be caught at the wire by Clint Eastwood again? Condon is a sure thing for pulling off "Dreamgirls" (even if the Hollywood Foreign Press overlooked him entirely). The Directors Guild nominated Faris and Dayton, but the Academy may hesitate to go with co-directors (when "City of God" was nominated a few years ago, one of the two directors never even made it onto the ballot paper). Frears might push them out, with Inarritu the most likely of the three Mexican amigos (Inarritu, Cuaron and Del Toro) to nab the last spot.



Edited By flipp525 on 1169524447

[criddic3]

My wish: United 93 nominated for picture and/or director; Michael Sheen and/or James McAvoy getting nominations.

My fear/unwanted nominee: Abigail Breslin and Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. They were fine, but not particularly impressive. And of course, i wouldn't be too thrilled to see Cohen nominated for his Borat. Funny, yes, but no best actor.

[Damien]

From The New York Daily News:

Oscar frenzy starts with nominations Tuesday
by Jack Mathews

Jan. 22, 2007
A few Oscar pundits have complained that 2006 didn't produce the same level of contenders as 2005, when "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote" and the eventual winning picture, "Crash," were nominated. I'm with you - that is, moviegoers who bought more tickets to films in 2006 than in 2005 - in saying, "What are they, nuts?"

"The Departed" is a great mob movie. "Dreamgirls" is a great musical adaptation. "The Queen" is a great political drama. "Babel" is a great globe-hopping thinking-person's thriller. And though they aren't getting the attention they deserve, Clint Eastwood's two WWII dramas - "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters From Iwo Jima" - are great war movies.

Throw in the road comedy "Little Miss Sunshine," which popped up like an early crocus at last year's Sundance Film Festival, and two near-perfect Spanish-language movies (Pedro Almodovar's "Volver" and Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth") and we're talking vintage Oscar season.

The nominations for the 79th Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, and most, if not all, of the above named movies will appear on multiple ballots. I expect "Dreamgirls," "Babel" and "The Departed" to compete for the most nominations, but by Oscar night, Feb. 25, the best picture winner will still be in doubt.

But for movie buffs, the best picture category is not the be-all of the show anymore. The best animated feature category, established in 2001, has grown into a muscular contest in its own right. There were 14 Oscar-eligible animated features released last year, and voters must have had a time deciding on a third film after writing down "Happy Feet" and "Cars."

My predictions for Tuesday's major Oscar ballots:

Picture: "Babel," "Dreamgirls," "The Departed," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen." In contention: "Little Children," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Pan's Labyrinth."

Director: Bill Condon ("Dreamgirls"), Clint Eastwood ("Letters From Iwo Jima"), Stephen Frears ("The Queen"), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu ("Babel"), Martin Scorsese ("The Departed"). In contention: Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Guillermo del Toro ("Pan's Labyrinth").

Actress: Penelope Cruz ("Volver"), Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal"), Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"), Kate Winslet ("Little Children"). In contention: Beyonce ("Dreamgirls").

Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen ("Borat"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Departed"), Peter O'Toole ("Venus"), Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness"), Forest Whitaker ("The Last Kind of Scotland"). In contention: DiCaprio (again, for "Blood Diamond"), Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson").

Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza ("Babel"), Cate Blanchett ("Notes on a Scandal"), Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Rinko Kikuchi ("Babel"), Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls"). In contention: Catherine O'Hara ("For Your Consideration"), Emily Blunt ("The Devil Wears Prada").

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Jackie Earle Haley ("Little Children"), Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls"), Jack Nicholson ("The Departed"), Brad Pitt ("Babel"). In contention: Michael Sheen ("The Queen"), Djimon Hounsou ("Blood Diamond"), Mark Wahlberg ("The Departed"), Michael Pena ("World Trade Center").

Original screenplay: "Babel," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen," "United 93," "Volver." In contention: "Pan's Labyrinth," "Bobby."

Adapted screenplay: "Casino Royale," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," "Little Children," "Thank You for Smoking." In contention: "The Devil Wears Prada," "Children of Men," "Notes on a Scandal."