Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

[Big Magilla]

It's a stretch.

Stephenson's script was about a pediatrician and a precocious teenage patient and did not take place in a boarding school in Boston.

There are thousands of scripts with the same basic plot about an older man mentoring a teenager.

If the unproduced script is as well-known as it seems to be, Payne and Hemingson would have to be nuts to steal from it.

Variety has become a real rag, engaging in such sensationalism the day before the Oscars.

[Sonic Youth]

It’s not a true Oscar season without at least one plagiarism accusation.

[Okri]

Plagarism accusation re: The Holdovers

[Mister Tee]

Anatomy of a Fall has won the Globe, BAFTA and Critics Choice for Screenplay

For the record, the Broadcasters didn't choose Anatomy of a Fall; they went for Barbie, pre-switch to adapted.

You know what won Globe/BAFTA last year? The Banshees of Inisherin.

Which is to say, people are predicting based on the information they have to hand. Were WGA on a normal schedule and chose The Holdovers (or, as I'll ride to the end, Past Lives), things'd be fully up in the air. The absence of that doesn't make the other precursors more powerful; it just means there's less data for people to use as crutches.

I think Anatomy is certainly a defensible choice -- the directing nomination makes it appear stronger than Holdovers or Past Lives. But most films with best picture citations have a shot at this prize. (I say "most" instead of "any", because, Maestro? -- come on.)

I root for Past Lives, predict Anatomy (and root for it as second choice), but won't be surprised by any of the final three.

[Sabin]

I like Tee’s point on how much prognosticators have become aggregators. Pretty much everyone agrees that Anatomy of a Fall is the front runner based on the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Had the WGA gave their award to The Holdovers prior to Sunday, would one person be left predicting Anatomy of a Fall?

Not like I’m any better. My choice would be May December, but I’m leaning towards Anatomy of a Fall over The Holdovers for one major reason: the writer/director factor. This category really seems to favor those. You have to go back to The King’s Speech to find a winner in this category that wasn’t a writer/director.

[anonymous1980]

The nominees:

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Sami Burch and Alex Mechanic, May December
Celine Song, Past Lives

Unlike Adapted Screenplay, this category has one clear front-runner. Anatomy of a Fall has won the Globe, BAFTA and Critics Choice for Screenplay and since France has passed this over as their International Feature entry, this category seems like the most natural place to honor it (a la Talk to Her). There was a time when it was thought The Holdovers and Past Lives could've made a go for a win but that time has come and gone.