Categories One-by-One: Best Actress

[Okri]

I think this is a four-way race. Whether I’m right or wrong, it’s rather fun to think in those terms.

What I would give to replace Bening with someone else. It doesn’t have to be Robbie. It could be Greta Lee. It could be Virginie Efira (masterful in Other People’s Children). Teyana Taylor was singled out for a couple critics nominations, but she deserved more. May/December is Natalie Portman at her absolute gutsiest. Ah well. She’s certainly not terrible, but I also don’t see her winning (ever, if I’m being honest. Again, that cohort from the 80s/early 90s – just bad timing).

Sandra Huller is probably further back than I think, but the specific gestalt of this year for her fascinates me. The desire in some quarters for her to get two nominations, as an example. But she’s terrific in the movie. If she isn’t doing the level of work she’s doing, the film really doesn’t work as well as it does and AMPAS clearly likes the movie. I also think she’s a strong contender for BAFTA, who have taken a look at binary races and gone elsewhere (Riva during the Chastain/Lawrence race) and are really attempting to become more European in who/what they recognize.

One thing I want to throw out here is just how many genuine races we’ve had recently for best actress. Close vs Coleman; Mulligan vs McDormand vs Davis; Blanchett vs Yeoh; the 2021 WTF? From the recent five years, only 2019 yielded something approaching a coronation and even then it was the most bizarre coronation we’ve seen. Its peer category has had a couple races (Boseman vs Hopkins, Butler vs Fraser vs Farrell) recently, but nothing like best actress.

I would rate Emma Stone and Carey Mulligan around the same. But before I explain, can we just take a moment to clap for just how saavily Stone is managing her career. When she got nominated for Birdman, I thought she had a risk of being a one-and-done. Not only was she not done, she’s one of the rare performers who’s AMPAS history is exclusively comic. That’s really unusual, given how often AMPAS passes on comedic performances. Heck, she made a live-action Disney remake watchable (opinions vary). And she’s received career best reviews. That said… part of me wonders if the sexual audacity of the movie/performance will turn AMPAS off a little bit. Part of me wonders if there is any desire to give a second Oscar to a performer who still reads as quite young (though Hilary Swank was only 31 when she won her second award… and Bening was in that race too. hmmmm). Indeed, I’m generally surprised at how easily performers have gotten second/third Oscars lately (which I think was a bigger obstacle to Blanchett last year, despite the raves).

Mulligan, meanwhile, took a long time after her first nomination to return. But she came back and really appeared to be in the thick of her race, only to suffer a couple glaring misses (losing the Globe to Andra Day, completely missing out at BAFTA) that seemed to really knock her off the pace. Like Gladstone, she has a very sympathetic arc. She does the biopic work that often clinches prizes (the vocal cadences!). That said, her role feels a little on the smaller side – certainly compared to the whirling dervish of a title character. Additionally, as mentioned in the thread, there are a couple directorial choices that de-emphasize her in scenes that work to her detriment here. But not in the final portion of the film, which again, is Mulligan at her most sympathetic. I could also see her taking BAFTA

But ultimately, I think Gladstone is taking it. I don’t read a whole lot into her BAFTA omission, to be honest – the changes to how the nominations are selected makes them less of a precursor (which, again, delighted by). The debate about lead or supporting is less of a hindrance to her, I’d argue, because the opinion of many seems to be that people want MORE of her because of how strong she is with the material she’s given. And while I agree that Killers of the Flower Moon wasn’t as enthusiastically embraced by AMPAS as it could’ve been, she becomes the way the film can get an award. I expect her to get some support from those who were less than enthusiastic about the movie.
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