Sabin wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:31 pm
This is the first time Gladstone & Stone and Murphy & Giamatti have been in competition and this time the critics voted with their funny bones both times. Last year, this was the first time Fraser beat Butler and he went onto the SAG. There are two more face-offs: the SAG and (presumably) the BAFTAs. Just like last year, we're looking at both of our lead races being tight until the end because I'm not sure how either one of them will turn out.
We should all fervently root for Gladstone/Giamatti at SAG, Stone/Murphy at BAFTA, and let the Oscars make the final calls.
(I'd also go for Gosling SAG/Ruffalo BAFTA, but that might be asking too much.)
Oppenheimer's 8 is the most wins since La La Land with 8, although its Original Screenplay win was a tie with Manchester by the Sea. Before that, Mad Max: Fury Road topped it with 9, but that total was bolstered by shit like Best Action Film / Best Actor in an Action Film / Best Actress in an Action Film. Remove those, and it's got 6. I'm not going to go back any farther but Oppenheimer's 8 would seem to be a historically huge tally and has a good claim on most wins without assist or tie ever.
Oppenheimer has almost or twice the wins of the last six winners: Everything Everywhere All At Once (5), The Power of the Dog, Nomadland, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Roma, & The Shape of Water (4). Barbie cleared all these chumps as well. There is real industry enthusiasm re: not just Oppenheimer, but Barbenheimer.
Wes is right about Marty's track record with getting nominated for 10 and winning zero. It gets funnier though. When he's up for 11, he wins 5.
This is the first time Gladstone & Stone and Murphy & Giamatti have been in competition and this time the critics voted with their funny bones both times. Last year, this was the first time Fraser beat Butler and he went onto the SAG. There are two more face-offs: the SAG and (presumably) the BAFTAs. Just like last year, we're looking at both of our lead races being tight until the end because I'm not sure how either one of them will turn out.
As is my wont with these stupid things, I DVR-d, joining at about quarter to 9, fast-forwarding through most of it (including a lot of speeches, because I have no intention of letting myself get sick of hearing repeat winners over this long season). My main hope, as always, is that they not spoil races, because 1) I prefer suspense for as long as possible and 2) the last people I'd want setting the agenda are these clowns.
On that score, how did they do?
They obviously went to town with Oppenheimer, but I had no doubt they would -- had the film lost either film or director, it would have represented a seismic shift for the organization. The film probably will repeat those categories at the Oscars, but this result has zero impact on it.
The probably think they've frozen the supporting acting categories, but 1) they're only ratifying Da'Vine Joy Randolph, not making her happen and 2) as far as Downey, he's doing well, but, recall, people thought Angela Bassett was a lock after Globes/Broadcasters last year. SAG and, especially, BAFTA could introduce doubt into that second slot.
Happily, they've left the lead acting categories alive, possibly even injected suspense into them. Several of us have thought Giamatti has a good shot at the Oscar, but Murphy was seriously rising after the Globe win. The true casualty is Bradley Cooper. You'd think if any place was going to stick with him, it'd be these guys. Barring a shocking turn at SAG (where Giamatti might well be more popular both short- and long-term), Cooper's hopes seem dead once more.
(It's interesting how two performers the GoldDerby pundits thought would sweep the TV awards -- Cooper and Brooks -- look more likely to go home with nothing.)
And the selection of Emma Stone seems truly to reset the race, one that pundits had been deciding was heavily tilted Gladstone's way. Of course, this could be a repeat of Cate Blanchett just last year -- the critics' favorite managing to win this group but still falling at the Oscars. It might even resemble 2016, when this group idiosyncratically chose Natalie Portman over...look at that...Emma Stone. (The fact that Stone didn't win here during her Oscar run playing some part?)
Also, happily, the group did nothing to settle the screenplay races, picking a movie that's been re-categorized for original, and making a somewhat out-there choice under adapted. (The fact they avoided Oppenheimer for screenplay was the only soft spot Nolan's film hit.) With no WGA prior to AMPAS this year, the BAFTA screenplay choices might be our only real screenplay precursors.
And I love that this group chose Academy-blackballed candidates for both visual effects and make-up! Leaving at least a few categories truly up in the air for the Oscar pool.
I wonder how many of the actors etc. know just how full of it these awards are?
OscarGuy wrote
I would find it deeply worrying if Killers of the Flower Moon gets exactly 10 nominations. His prior two such efforts went home empty-handed. Gangs of New York and The Irishman.
I would find it deeply worrying if Killers of the Flower Moon gets exactly 10 nominations. His prior two such efforts went home empty-handed. Gangs of New York and The Irishman.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Best Actress: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Young Actor/Actress: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Acting Ensemble: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Original Screenplay: Barbie
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Best Editing: Oppenheimer
Best Production Design: Barbie
Best Costume Design: Barbie
Best Makeup & Hair: Barbie
Best Visual Effects: Oppenheimer
Best Comedy Feature: Barbie
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Language Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Score: Oppenheimer
Best Original Song: "I'm Just Ken" (Barbie)
Last edited by Sabin on Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:25 pm, edited 6 times in total.
If Academy voting weren't more than half over, I'd say that speech alone would secure America Ferrera an Oscar nomination. That's the kind of fierceness she brought to Barbie and I think will resonate with many voters.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
