NYFCC Winners

[Big Magilla]

Although the New York Times is no longer a part of the NYFCC, critic Mahohla Dargis is out with her top-ten is out with her top ten in today's paper which adheres to their consensus.

Her top three picks are Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Menus-Plaisirs. May December comes in at no. 7 on her list and Past Lives comes in at no. 6 on her list of runners-up.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Will critical enthusiasm for Miyazaki help him win a valedictory Oscar? Especially with the (justly-acclaimed) Spider-verse movie being a Part I effort?

NYFCC started giving out this prize two years before the Academy (their inaugural winner being the excellent South Park: Bigger Longer & Uncut) but their track record of matching up with the eventual winner is pretty dismal. Of those 21 match-ups (in 2011, they opted for no winner), their selection matched up with the Academy's eventual winner just eight times, for Spirited Away, The Incredibles, Happy Feet, WALL-E, Inside Out, Zootpia, Coco, and Spider-Verse. All good films. I share your thoughts. Across the Spider-Verse is such a Part 1 effort, it might be overlooked. I know some people online are going quite overboard predicting Spider-Verse for several awards it has probably little chance of getting. Miyazaki has three nominations (and one win). I was going to suggest that from that glance it doesn't appear that he has the greatest track record with the Academy but it's actually quite good. Since the dawn of this category, only one film he's directed has missed out: Ponyo, for (if I'm not mistaken) the unusually wonderful year for this category 2009.

I'll check it out this weekend.

[Mister Tee]

Its win with NYFCC ranks it as one of the six Scorsese films to win Best Film or Director, the others being Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas, The Departed, and The Irishman.

I had to read this over a couple of times. I'm guessing you meant "from any of the major critics' groups"? -- because Taxi Driver only won directing at National Society, and Raging Bull won director there plus film at LA.

But, even just in NY, this is the third time a Scorsese movie has won best picture, which gets him out of a crowded two-wins group and ties him with Wyler (Wuthering Heights, Best Years of Our Lives, Ben-Hur), Kazan (Gentleman's Agreement, Streetcar, On the Waterfront) and Zinnemann (High Noon, From Here to Eternity, A Man for All Seasons) as three-time champs. Remarkable that a guy more than 50 years into his career keeps accumulating honors like these.

Apart from the Rogowski wild-hair, this was as old-school a set of NY picks as we've seen in some time, with most of the wins going to films widely seen as in the Oscar conversation. I wouldn't say there's no chance of runner-up reports leaking -- Ruimy seems to be able to get info like that despite the Swiss Guard that seems to surround it. (For what it's worth, Ruimy's story on his site says Killers "bested fierce competition from Past Lives and Oppenheimer" -- I don't know if that's inside data, or merely his imagined take on the field.) It certainly wouldn't be surprising if your suggestion of Haynes were in the mix -- not only has he won best film here twice, I'm Not There was a close runner-up in its year.

I'm of course looking forward to all the other legit critics, but I'm also intrigued by what NBR does this year. Lily Gladstone and Da'Vine Joy Randolph seemed the sort of choices they'd make, but they may go elsewhere now. And Oppenheimer feels like their sort of winner. I don't see (apropos Magilla) the critics falling in line for a limited field, with so many options in each category. Randolph is the only one I feel might become quick inevitability.

Picking Rogowski feels like abstaining from the Oscar race (not that it's NY's job to participate). As I said in my predictions, it feels like this year's bountiful best actor slate is full of performances AMPAS will endorse with far more enthusiasm than critics' groups (NBR excepted). I am sorry neither Scott nor Wright were able to grab a foothold here. LA is probably a better bet for one of them.

Will critical enthusiasm for Miyazaki help him win a valedictory Oscar? Especially with the (justly-acclaimed) Spider-verse movie being a Part I effort?

Given my own issues with the film, I have extreme doubts Killers can win best picture -- though I must add that I've been surprised by the number of people I've encountered who genuinely love it (including my brother). It's hard not to see Oppenheimer as a kind of platonic ideal of a best picture Oscar winner...but I'm nagged by the feeling it's the kind of movie that USED TO BE the Oscar formula (serious subject, critically-applauded, high-earning), but that has fallen short in recent decades: Apollo 13 and Saving Private Ryan seemed similarly certain and fell short, and even 12 Years a Slave stumbled far more than anticipated. All such doubts may be allayed as the season progresses, but I retain just a touch of skepticism despite its advantages.

As I noted down below, Melton is an interesting case for me. If a critics' sweep (which of course hasn't happened as yet, but may) pushes him to nomination-likelihood, it will be the first time in a while that a critics' bandwagon has cracked the blogger consensus. (Drive My Car did it in picture/director, of course, but what's the last time it happened for an actor? Maybe Isabelle Huppert?) For some time, that consensus has been Downey/Gosling/Ruffalo/DeNiro, and many have been choosing Dafoe for the 5th slot. Melton joining as solid contender would upend that.

Is May December a real screenplay option? Original is less competitive than adapted, but, even still, Past Lives/Anatomy of a Fall/The Holdovers/Barbie/Maestro is a formidable group to crack. Though Haynes' films have done better with writers than anywhere else at the Academy.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
I’ll write about this later since I think I might be the only person who has seen it on this board, but I think American Fiction could be the eventual Best Picture winner.

You keep teasing us with this! Come on...

Since 2010, the NYFCC has only had all four of its acting winners go onto nominations twice: 2010 and 2016. Two or more winners have missed out five times. One has missed out six times. I think it's pretty easy to predict who misses out if only one winner doesn't make it.

There have been two awards given this year for best supporting actor (one being at the Gothams for Performance) and Charles Melton has won them both. We get pretty hive-minded about who's a lock and who isn't at this time of year. The only reason I can think of to doubt Charles Melton's chances is that this group probably will end up liking May December (or seeing it) as much or more than any other voting bloc. That said having seen the film, maybe we're writing it off too soon. It's a tricky mix of tones but it's very entertaining and the audiences kind of has no choice but to identify with Melton's character at the end.

We're not going to get the runners-up, are we? Very sad because I'd be interested in knowing if it came down to Killers of the Flower Moon, May December, and Oppenheimer. That feels like a very NYFCC trio. Obviously, a big day for Killers of the Flower Moon and Lily Gladstone. Any time she can reinstate in peoples' minds that she is a lead is a good thing.

So much for my Past Lives sweep notion. At this point, I think we all knew that Killers of the Flower Moon would be an Oscar heavy but I wasn't sure if it would show up as one of the big contenders at the big three film critics groups this year. Its win with NYFCC ranks it as one of the six Scorsese films to win Best Film or Director, the others being Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas, The Departed, and The Irishman. At this point, we should probably be asking where else it shows up.

Christopher Nolan showing up for NYFCC is significant as well. He's been on the radar for over twenty years and his only previous award from the big three was Best Screenplay for Memento from LAFCA. They also gave Dunkirk Best Editing and The Dark Knight runner up status for Best Film, Director, and Production Design (plus a win for Ledger). It seems like they like him more over there. Maybe this foreshadows a bigger day ahead for Oppenheimer on the west coast.

[Big Magilla]

Looks pretty much like a return to form for this group.

Flowers of the Killer Moon for Best Picture and Oppenheimer for Best Director are about as middle-of-the-road as you can get these days.

Three of the four acting awards were within expectations. Franz Rogowski, as surprising as his win is, takes the place of predicted possible winner Andrew Scott who also played a gay man in a strained relationship with another man. He is also a stand-in for fellow German star Sandra Huller, a front-runner for Best Actress. Very clever twist there. You get your German winner albeit in a different category while still being LBGTQ supportive.

If L.A. and NBR vote a combination of Killers and Oppenheimer for Best Picture/Director and repeat Gladstone, Melton, and Randolph, which is quite possible, the only major award up in the air by the time the Oscars are handed out could be Best Actor.

[flipp525]

I’ll write about this later since I think I might be the only person who has seen it on this board, but I think American Fiction could be the eventual Best Picture winner.

[Mister Tee]

Well, wrong about the winner, but I think validated on the idea Best Film was voted first. This isn't the first time Best Film has followed best director in lickety-split fashion. They obviously didn't have time for new balloting, so I think they had it on ice since the start.

Will mull these over and comment after I take a belated lunch.

[mlrg]

Other than best actor, the others are pretty much winners within standard range like Tee mentioned.

As of today I think Oppenheimer is taking best picture at the oscars.

[Mister Tee]

May end up instantly contradicted on this, but...there are persistent (though never fully confirmed) rumors that NY votes on Best Film first, but holds the winner till the end. Along the way, other prizes -- First Film and International Film -- are voted on with the knowledge of what won the top prize.

Given that The Zone of Interest was far more highly Metacritic-rated than Anatomy of a Fall, the choice of the latter for International Film suggests Zone is best film, and voters went with Anatomy as consolation prize.

We'll see if that holds up.

[Mister Tee]

And, just when I say "standard range'...

(Though, to give credit where due: some of the folk at Awards Worthy have cited/predicted Rogowski.)

[Mister Tee]

Interim thoughts:

Man, you get up early. I only arrived about an hour ago, and you're 3 time zones earlier.

Never heard of the winning doc, but I'm told it's Wiseman, so makes perfect sense.

Man, NY loves its Haynes.

What happens if Melton aces the classic critics? Does he crash the slate and make the expected 4 the locked-in 5?

Mostly in standard range so far.

[Sabin]

Best Picture: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best First Film: Past Lives
Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Animated Film: The Boy and the Heron
Best Non-Fiction Film: Menus-Plaisirs -- Les Troigros
Best Actor: Franz Rogowski, Passages
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Charles Melton, May December
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Screenplay: May December
Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer