The Post-Festival Landscape

[Big Magilla]

I'm not underestimating DiCaprio.

Almost all references to him are prefaced with the comment that he won't win but they like him, they really like him, or words to that effect, so he will be nominated. If they could ignore De Niro in The Irishman, and they did, they can ignore DiCaprio in this.

When push comes to shove, which it will after the initial critics' awards, if Scott wins one, perhaps, but if he wins two of the big four - New York, Los Angeles, the National Board of Review and the National Society of Film Critics, definitely, he will be taken more seriously than DiCaprio.

The same may apply to Wright as well.

Murphy doesn't need to be swept in, his performance in Oppenheimer is deserving on its own merits. The one who may/will be swept in is Emily Blunt.

[Reza]

Andrew Scott could be a real contender if he wins two or more major critics' awards. Right now, I see Murphy and Cooper as solid contenders with Giamatti and Domingo as quite possible. Scott could outpoll either one, but right now I think that he is more likely to outpoll DiCaprio and Wright for the fifth spot instead.

I think you may be underestimating DiCaprio. He is going to get swept in with the whole bunch of nods the Scorsese is expected to get. Both he and Cillian Murphy are in the same swept in boat with no win in sight for either. But both are very much in along with Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti. The fifth spot will be a fight between Wright, Scott and Domingo.

I predict the win for the long overdue Bradley Cooper.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
If the prediction holds, we could be looking at something very close to last year's Oscar race when an Irish actor (Colin Farrell) considered the front-runner all year long was joined in the Best Actor race by another Irish actor (Paul Mescal) and they both lost to an actor many thought should have been nominated in the 1990s (Brendan Fraser) for something but wasn't.

I'm not sure I 100% agree with your policework, Lou.

MY recollection of the Best Actor race for 2022 was all year everyone was looking at Brendan Fraser for Best Actor based on the first glimpse of his make-upped appearance. Colin Farrell was the critic's fave and Austin Butler jumped out ahead for a bit after his Golden Globe and BAFTA win (over Farrell), making it (what seemed like) a neck-in-neck race between him and Fraser, but Fraser pulled through.

OK, I'll concede that Farrell wasn't considered the frontrunner all year, but from the moment Banshees played the festivals, he became the presumed favorite or at least co-favorite with Fraser's still unseen The Whale which was released late in the year to mixed reviews. The only real difference is that Oppenheimer opened much earlier in the year than Banshees so Murphy, once referred to as "the new Colin Farrell", has been the presumptive frontrunner longer this year than his friend Farrell was last year.

Austin Butler was a fluke. I thought he was a Golden Globe only thing and was quite surprised that BAFTA went for him as well, but I never considered him a real threat to Farrell and Fraser.

Andrew Scott could be a real contender if he wins two or more major critics' awards. Right now, I see Murphy and Cooper as solid contenders with Giamatti and Domingo as quite possible. Scott could outpoll either one, but right now I think that he is more likely to outpoll DiCaprio and Wright for the fifth spot instead.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
I won't hijack the thread with my thoughts about 2018, but I'd add both director and supporting actor to that pile to be honest.

Really? I thought Ali and Cuaron were front-runners from almost day one.

Best Supporting Actress is one of the most bizarre races in some time, where the front-runner wasn't nominated for a SAG or a BAFTA, where she was the only contender not from a Best Picture nominee, where the SAG winner wasn't nominated, where the BAFTA winner wasn't taken seriously, and where the one contender who was previously nominated and didn't win (Adams) was from a Best Picture nominee but was never taken seriously.

Okri wrote
The list seems like a combination of both - especially when you read their comments. I don't think Justin Chang thinks "Showing Up" is a best picture contender. That said, I think it's interesting in that sense anyway.

Yeah. I mean, why not influence the narrative in some way if you can. Just reminded me that I need to see Showing Up.

He's pretty much the one hold out on The Holdovers in general. He really doesn't like it.

[Okri]

I won't hijack the thread with my thoughts about 2018, but I'd add both director and supporting actor to that pile to be honest.

The list seems like a combination of both - especially when you read their comments. I don't think Justin Chang thinks "Showing Up" is a best picture contender. That said, I think it's interesting in that sense anyway.

Random observation: Meryl Streep will not be nominated this year. That means her 2018-2023 stretch will be the longest stretch she's gone without a nomination since her film debut

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
A bunch of LA Times folk have put together lists of top contenders in the major categories. (You might need a subscription if you've used up your free articles):

I'm confused. Is this their list of predictions or preferences or both?

Big Magilla wrote
If the prediction holds, we could be looking at something very close to last year's Oscar race when an Irish actor (Colin Farrell) considered the front-runner all year long was joined in the Best Actor race by another Irish actor (Paul Mescal) and they both lost to an actor many thought should have been nominated in the 1990s (Brendan Fraser) for something but wasn't.

I'm not sure I 100% agree with your policework, Lou.

MY recollection of the Best Actor race for 2022 was all year everyone was looking at Brendan Fraser for Best Actor based on the first glimpse of his make-upped appearance. Colin Farrell was the critic's fave and Austin Butler jumped out ahead for a bit after his Golden Globe and BAFTA win (over Farrell), making it (what seemed like) a neck-in-neck race between him and Fraser, but Fraser pulled through.

Okri wrote
re: Roma vs Green Book

I'm fascinated about how 2018 played out. I remember at the time just being utterly confused about how many of the major races were playing out.

Except for Best Director and Best Supporting Actor, every race played out as dramatically and bizarrely as any I've seen in a while.

Usually when we talk about Best Picture, it boils down to one film vs. another film, but I think the dominant head-to-head in 2018 wasn't Green Book vs. Roma, it was Bohemian Rhapsody vs. A Star is Born. A Star is Born arrived in theaters with rave reviews, big box office, and seemed bound for Oscar glory... until it was all-but completely shut out at the Golden Globes by Bohemian Rhapsody. Aside from "Shallow," today A Star is Born feels like a forgotten film in the race. I occasionally wonder how the race might have played out had A Star is Born opened at Christmas and just had a little additional good will for a little bit longer. It probably would have collapsed like American Hustle (another film they just weren't that into) but it might have made for a slightly more exciting race.

[Okri]

I echo Magilla in that I'm really not expecting much consensus to emerge.

re: Roma vs Green Book

I'm fascinated about how 2018 played out. I remember at the time just being utterly confused about how many of the major races were playing out.

[Big Magilla]

The critics weighing in in the L.A. Times article are most, if not all, among the "experts" on Gold Derby which I occasionally take notice of.

Four of the six of them putting Andrew Scott at the top of their lists with a fifth putting him in second place behind Cillian Murphy and the sixth listing him in fifth place is something new.

If the prediction holds, we could be looking at something very close to last year's Oscar race when an Irish actor (Colin Farrell) considered the front-runner all year long was joined in the Best Actor race by another Irish actor (Paul Mescal) and they both lost to an actor many thought should have been nominated in the 1990s (Brendan Fraser) for something but wasn't. Paul Giamatti would certainly fit that scenario but none of the six give him a shot. They've got non-starter previous winners Jamie Foxx (The Burial) and Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) on their lists but not Giamatti which is odd considering that the film, Dominic Sessa, Da'vine Joy Randolph, and Andrew Payne (for screenplay) make their lists.

If their list can be believed, we are looking at nominations for Murphy, Scott, Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, and either Jeffrey Wright or Colman Domingo.

I am not expecting consensus among the various critic's groups, let alone the Golden Globes and finally the Oscars, is anyone?

[Mister Tee]

A bunch of LA TImes folk have put together lists of top contenders in the major categories. (You might need a subscription if you've used up your free articles):

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-a ... ple-cometh

Mostly, they're in the range we'd all probably pick, but with one notable standout: they have Andrew Scott as the solid number one choice for best actor -- while many of us aren't sure Scott will make the list of five (he seems to me to be among the bubble candidates).

But this might be where the critics step in. What if several of the legacy triumvirate critics vote Scott the year's best? You'd have to think, while that wouldn't put him atop Cooper or Murphy, it could angle him ahead of Giamatti/Wright/Domingo/DiCaprio for those other spots on the ballot.

NY votes on November 30th -- less than two weeks away! -- and could influence the Globes/Broadcasters/SAG choices, especially in this category and supporting actress.

[Sabin]

I didn't respond to Magilla yet but I can't really add much that Okri and Tee haven't.

Okri wrote
That stated, I also think that the gestalt of the 2018 and 2021 races are quite specific in a way that we don't always see that I find it hard to apply "lessons learnt" from them in a way that I feel like we can from other races.

Mister Tee wrote
Yeah, the bald fact about 2018 and 2021 was that, in each case, the overwhelming critical favorite (and DGA/directing Oscar winner) was a full-on art house effort that a lot of general audiences found baffling...just the sort of film most disadvantaged by a preferential ballot. If say, Killers of the Flower Moon or (unseen by me) Poor Things became that critically-boosted DGA winner, then you might find voters looking for a more cozy choice in best picture. But something like Oppenheimer wouldn't seem to challenge audiences so much that they'd go off the reservation.

And I do concur, as I said in commenting on the film, that, while The Holdovers might play well to the crowd that went for Green Book/CODA, it's a much better, far less cloying movie.

I definitely agree with the top point(s) about the films that lost. People talk shit about Green Book winning but at this point five years out, I don't think anybody remembers what it "beat" which is Roma, an aggressively art-hour (and let's be honest, dramatically unsatisfying) film. Also, both were Netflix films largely seen at home. Oppenheimer might have more in common with those two than CODA or Green Book but it's also an enormous blockbuster that Hollywood is inordinately grateful to.

To be clear, I think Oppenheimer is going to be the rare frontrunner that goes into the Oscar race the favorite and nothing changes. I could be wrong but I don't see how it goes sideways from there. I just wanted to share my friends' point of view. That said, I did see The Holdovers again last night and I understand its appear (especially for the Green Book/CODA crowd) a bit more.

[Mister Tee]

That stated, I also think that the gestalt of the 2018 and 2021 races are quite specific in a way that we don't always see that I find it hard to apply "lessons learnt" from them in a way that I feel like we can from other races.

Yeah, the bald fact about 2018 and 2021 was that, in each case, the overwhelming critical favorite (and DGA/directing Oscar winner) was a full-on art house effort that a lot of general audiences found baffling...just the sort of film most disadvantaged by a preferential ballot. If say, Killers of the Flower Moon or (unseen by me) Poor Things became that critically-boosted DGA winner, then you might find voters looking for a more cozy choice in best picture. But something like Oppenheimer wouldn't seem to challenge audiences so much that they'd go off the reservation.

And I do concur, as I said in commenting on the film, that, while The Holdovers might play well to the crowd that went for Green Book/CODA, it's a much better, far less cloying movie.

[Okri]

Barely a post, but I spoke with my film critic buddy who has largely the same issues with The Holdovers that I do (he wanted something a little more schematic & less shambling) but he thinks voters are going to go for it and it's a minor threat to win. He reminded me of a major blind spot that I have. Whenever I see a movie like CODA or Green Book, I always get walk away thinking "It's not going to win because even though it's middlebrow, for X,Y,Z reason it's not great or even good middlebrow." But people don't care about that, and neither do voters. It's about how the movie makes them feel, and The Holdovers is a very cozy movie with big laughs and a memorable protagonist. He was like "Let's say you voted for Green Book or CODA? If you don't like Oppenheimer, what's for you?"

I can see it, but I also think it's a stronger film than CODA or Green Book. But to answer his question - I'd say The Color Purple, Maestro and The Iron Claw. {without having seen those three, of course}

That stated, I also think that the gestalt of the 2018 and 2021 races are quite specific in a way that we don't always see that I find it hard to apply "lessons learnt" from them in a way that I feel like we can from other races.

[Big Magilla]

Sabin, your critic friend is correct in the sense that if you don't like Oppenheimer, what would you like? However, one could like Oppenheimer but like Killers of the Flower Moon or something else more and vote for that instead.

Not having seen The Holdovers, I don't know where I would come out on it, but since I do like Oppenheimer better than anything else I have seen this year so far, I would probably vote for it.

Although Green Book wasn't my favorite film of its year, I think the animosity toward it is misplaced. I don't know anyone who liked it because they were nostalgic for the era in which it was set but because they thought it told it like it was at the time, which is a different thing. I might have voted for it myself given that my favorite film of 2018, First Man, wasn't nominated.

CODA, on the other hand, appealed more to young people than those they lived through the 1950s and 60s when similar feel-good films like Has Anybody Seen My Gal? and Tammy Tell Me True wouldn't have had a snowball's chance in hell of being nominated. I would not have voted for it under any circumstances.

So, to the extent that feel-good movies occasionally win, The Holdovers could well do so, but its supporters may or may not be the same people who voted for either Green Book or CODA, both of them, or neither of them.

[Sabin]

Barely a post, but I spoke with my film critic buddy who has largely the same issues with The Holdovers that I do (he wanted something a little more schematic & less shambling) but he thinks voters are going to go for it and it's a minor threat to win. He reminded me of a major blind spot that I have. Whenever I see a movie like CODA or Green Book, I always get walk away thinking "It's not going to win because even though it's middlebrow, for X,Y,Z reason it's not great or even good middlebrow." But people don't care about that, and neither do voters. It's about how the movie makes them feel, and The Holdovers is a very cozy movie with big laughs and a memorable protagonist. He was like "Let's say you voted for Green Book or CODA? If you don't like Oppenheimer, what's for you?"

[danfrank]

Greg wrote
Who here isn't?

danfrank wrote
I appreciate the compliment!

You can only apologize for making a research error so many times lol.

But either way, my point stands. Network was almost fifty years ago. I don't see that level of historic enthusiasm. But then again, what do I know?

Yeah, I’m with you. I predict that The Color Purple will get a total of one acting nomination, and not many others beyond that.