Post-Festival Predictions

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Sabin
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Sabin »

criddic3 wrote
Gere has had some bad luck with the Academy. He's certainly been in well-received films and given performances that could have been nominated, but they never bite. I have to think, given that John C. Reilly got the supporting nod, that the Academy would have considered him more of a lead... but the role itself isn't introduced until, what half hour into the film or something? The ladies dominated that movie, despite Gere's Golden Globe win for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy. I placed him in support that year, along with Daniel Day-Lewis, who was clearly a supporting character to Leo DiCaprio's in "Gangs of New York." Yet he got the lead nomination. So, you may be right about category confusion there.

The DiCaprio in "The Departed" thing is interesting. He had "Revolutionary Road" out at the same time, and his co-star Matt Damon had to have been considered a lead in the film (though Damon received nothing for his work in it). But, like John C. Reilly, Mark Wahlberg placed in support (over Jack Nicholson) for the film at the Oscars. I think DiCaprio as a supporting player would have been more category fraud than if Richard Gere had been with "Chicago."
Regarding Richard Gere, we've had this conversation elsewhere about his status. I understand how his role might have appeared on the stage but on-screen his placement of leading vs. supporting is clearly borderline. If you look at where he was nominated, he was only cited for the Golden Globe and the SAG for leading, but I think that's testament to the strength of his overall role. He's... fine? I think there was greater enthusiasm for the idea of Richard Gere getting a nomination than for the performance itself. The Weinsteins however saw an opportunity to get nominations in all four acting categories. But to be honest, I think had they pushed him for supporting, that might not have resulted in a nomination for Reilly but I do think that Gere could have won on career sentiment alone as well as the size of his role. Best Supporting Actor had a wealth of strong contenders that year to the point where Alfred Molina for Friday (who might have won in previous years) was barely mentioned. I love Chris Cooper in Adaptation. but it's not a typical winner. But "forced" to compete against that year's Best Actor pool (which included the non-nominated Leonardo DiCaprio for Catch Me If You Can, Hugh Grant for About a Boy, Sam Rockwell for Confessions of a Dangerous Mind among others) was too hard.

Daniel Day-Lewis is an even more borderline case. I can see real arguments either way.

Leonardo DiCaprio didn't have Revolutionary Road out at the same time (that was 2008). He had Blood Diamond out at the same time from the same studio (WB). I have no idea what conversations were going on behind the scenes or what contracts were signed beforehand regarding DiCaprio's promotional requirements. DiCaprio was pushed for supporting by SAG but was only considered lead elsewhere. I would love to see the vote totals in both categories because it's entirely possible that DiCaprio received enough votes to be considered lead but came in behind his Blood Diamond total and yet came in sixth in totals for The Departed, which might have been more overall but less than the five others that got nominated. It's hard to look at the push for Blood Diamond and think it could have done better than the five (!) nominations it ended up with but if they held off a year maybe DiCaprio could have gotten nominated in that Best Actor field. But again, that's why they have their job and I have mine.

Anyway... I would have considered Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio lead for The Departed (and nominated both) and Jack Nicholson, Mark Wahlberg, Martin Sheen, and Alec Baldwin supporting in The Departed. I also would have considered both Leonardo DiCaprio and Djimon Hounsou leads in Blood Diamond. So, category fraud across the board.

Last point, I used to look at Jack Nicholson in The Departed and originally found him to be the weak link of the film. I kept thinking "Who acts like this? His character makes no sense!" Then Donald Trump ran for President and... I sort of see a lot of parallels between the two. Trump is a lot like that guy!
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criddic3
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by criddic3 »

Sabin wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 2:22 pm Quick thought on Giamatti for Sideways:

With Gere and DiCaprio, I have to believe the fact that there was some confusion about what category they truly belonged in.
Gere has had some bad luck with the Academy. He's certainly been in well-received films and given performances that could have been nominated, but they never bite. I have to think, given that John C. Reilly got the supporting nod, that the Academy would have considered him more of a lead... but the role itself isn't introduced until, what half hour into the film or something? The ladies dominated that movie, despite Gere's Golden Globe win for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy. I placed him in support that year, along with Daniel Day-Lewis, who was clearly a supporting character to Leo DiCaprio's in "Gangs of New York." Yet he got the lead nomination. So, you may be right about category confusion there.

The DiCaprio in "The Departed" thing is interesting. He had "Revolutionary Road" out at the same time, and his co-star Matt Damon had to have been considered a lead in the film (though Damon received nothing for his work in it). But, like John C. Reilly, Mark Wahlberg placed in support (over Jack Nicholson) for the film at the Oscars. I think DiCaprio as a supporting player would have been more category fraud than if Richard Gere had been with "Chicago."
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
I think Rhea Perlman could sneak in for Barbie if the Academy really goes for it. She was perfect in a small, but important role and that category is weak as hell this year.
I don't know if the category is weak (seriously, maybe it is?). I just don't see a typical frontrunner in it. Which, y'know, nothing wrong with that.

What I'm noticing about Best Supporting Actress is that since Best Picture expanded to ten, there's generally 3-4 contenders from a Best Picture nominee. The exceptions are 2016 (5) and 2015 (1). This is significant because (after my quick scan) most Best Picture nominees don't have a ton of Best Supporting Actress possibilities. There's usually only five vs. Best Supporting Actor which usually has about double the possibilities. We only have an idea of what's going to be nominated for Best Picture at this point but it seems like quite a few contenders (Anatomy of a Fall, now Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things) don't seem to have any pronounced Best Supporting Actress possibilities. Barbie, The Holdovers, and Oppenheimer do with America Ferrara, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, and Emily Blunt (maybe Florence Pugh too?). If Best Picture extends to All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, May December, and The Zone of Interest then we might include Claire Foy, Brooks & Henson, Julianne Moore, and Sandra Huller to fit the bill.

It's odd, at no point during Barbie did I think that American Ferrara would end up being talked about for Best Supporting Actress but now she's at least definitely in the conversation.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by flipp525 »

I think Rhea Perlman could sneak in for Barbie if the Academy really goes for it. She was perfect in a small, but important role and that category is weak as hell this year.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

Reza wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:26 am
Big Magilla wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 9:19 pm I predicted a Best Actress nomination and possible win for Gladstone in Best Actress after Cannes but everyone though I was nuts.

A win might be a stretch but it's not impossible with Mulligan and Stone her toughest competition. Without her in support, I would think that Da'vine Joy Randolph would be the strongest candidate as of now.
Who decides which category she plays in? She, Scorsese, the studio?

Foreign actresses have won. An African-American has won. An Asian has won. It's time now that a Native American wins in the lead category.

Hilarious how in some circles a white win is looked at with almost disdain or horror today. :lol:
The voters decide category placement but generally go along with the production company which usually accedes to the actor's wishes so unless she wins multiple precursors in supporting, I would say Best Actress is the likely category for her now.

Not sure if race will be a factor in this one. It could be if the competition were weak, but it is shaping up as pretty strong and none of the candidates are going to torpedo their chances like two-time previous winner Cate Blanchett did last year by saying it's about time someone who looks like their competitor won. Unlike last year, this is not just a two-person race.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 9:19 pm I predicted a Best Actress nomination and possible win for Gladstone in Best Actress after Cannes but everyone though I was nuts.

A win might be a stretch but it's not impossible with Mulligan and Stone her toughest competition. Without her in support, I would think that Da'vine Joy Randolph would be the strongest candidate as of now.
Who decides which category she plays in? She, Scorsese, the studio?

Foreign actresses have won. An African-American has won. An Asian has won. It's time now that a Native American wins in the lead category.

Hilarious how in some circles a white win is looked at with almost disdain or horror today. :lol:
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

I predicted a Best Actress nomination and possible win for Gladstone in Best Actress after Cannes but everyone though I was nuts.

A win might be a stretch but it's not impossible with Mulligan and Stone her toughest competition. Without her in support, I would think that Da'vine Joy Randolph would be the strongest candidate as of now.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Mateo wrote
According to Variety, Lily Gladstone is campaigning for Lead Actress. This makes Best Actress all the more crowded with Stone, Mulligan, Bening, Huller, Robbie, Lee, Spaeny, Portman, and yet-to-be-seen Barrino in the conversation already. Should the Academy vote for her in Lead, Gladstone will be the first Native American woman nominated in the category.
I'm saying this without having seen Killers of the Flower Moon, but that seems like an easy Oscar that's gone by the wayside for her. But who knows? The first Oscar that Scorsese was responsible for was Best Actress. Maybe the last one will be too.

Let's see how it turns out though. Best Actress is a pretty crowded category while Best Supporting Actress has yet to remotely take shape IMO. She could still end up nominated there. We said the same thing about Michelle Williams last year.

At this point, I see:

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks & Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Viola Davis, Air
America Ferrara, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

I mean... your guess is as good as mine?
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Mateo »

According to Variety, Lily Gladstone is campaigning for Lead Actress. This makes Best Actress all the more crowded with Stone, Mulligan, Bening, Huller, Robbie, Lee, Spaeny, Portman, and yet-to-be-seen Barrino in the conversation already. Should the Academy vote for her in Lead, Gladstone will be the first Native American woman nominated in the category.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

Reza wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:48 pm
mlrg wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:53 pm
Big Magilla wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:31 pm
So, Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Wright?
Interesting line up. At this stage who do you think can win?
Bradley Cooper.

With 9 Oscar nominations in different categories and zero wins he is the most overdue.

Don't think the Academy is going to go the route of Ernest Borgnine and give it to Paul Giamatti.
I would say he is the most overly nominated hyphenate in Oscar history and may not deserve the three he is going to get for Maestro but he will definitely add to his haul. He won't win, though.

Paul Giamatti is not Ernest Borgnine. He may have been in 2004-2005, but he has gone far beyond that since.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

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Okri wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:18 pm My thoughts are argumentative, but I am not, so I'll just say that it's way too early for me to have any conviction in any prediction. I could even see Murphy missing out (a la Amy Adams in Arrival)
Oppenheimer's expected huge haul of nominations will certainly take Murphy along for the ride. He will not win though.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Reza »

mlrg wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:53 pm
Big Magilla wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:31 pm
So, Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Wright?
Interesting line up. At this stage who do you think can win?
Bradley Cooper.

With 9 Oscar nominations in different categories and zero wins he is the most overdue.

Don't think the Academy is going to go the route of Ernest Borgnine and give it to Paul Giamatti.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Okri »

My thoughts are argumentative, but I am not, so I'll just say that it's way too early for me to have any conviction in any prediction. I could even see Murphy missing out (a la Amy Adams in Arrival)
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

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Sabin wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 2:22 pmPaul Giamatti remains the biggest acting snub of my moviegoing life and the reason why has to be linked to the fact that he was playing such a flawed, ordinary guy in a category opposite J.M. Barrie, Howard Hughes, Ray Charles, and Paul Rusesabagina. Oh, and the most mythic performance of Clint Eastwood's career this century.
Worth pointing out that four of the eventual nominees were also in best picture nominees, and the fifth (Cheadle) had a film likely thisclose to making the list as well -- getting actor/supporting actress/screenplay nominations; joining the five AMPAS nominees in a six-wide SAG Ensemble category.

I remember people here at the time suggesting that Giammatti's biggest handicaps were being pretty much unknown, and appearing in a comedy, which AMPAS has traditionally given short shrift. The Holdovers would of course have that same issue, but I think the fact that Giammatti has become immeasurably more familiar in the ensuing two decades -- winning an Emmy, having a long-run cable series -- makes omitting him a far less likely thing.

While it's not always a thing that snubs lead to later make-ups -- the Academy has obviously resisted Christopher Nolan multiple times despite his fanboys demanding restitution -- there are cases where omissions are not signs of continuing snubs: Jeremy Irons was left off for Dead Ringers but rewarded (and awarded) for Reversal of Fortune; Naomi Watts bypassed for Mulholland Drive but cited for 23 Grams and the even less-notable The Impossible. And Ang Lee had a long history of AMPAS mistreatmernt -- left off for directing Sense and Sensibility; upset by Soderbergh when he won DGA in 2000; denied best picture in 2005 -- but then won a not-fully-expected second Oscar for Life of Pi. If you stick around long enough...

I mean, Giammatti's nomination the very year after Sideways, for a film that otherwise tanked with AMPAS, suggested remorse over his snub.

I wouldn't hazard a guess from the ultimate winner from the currently speculated-over slate. Lanes will surely narrow as the season progresses, but I think, right now, all but DiCaprio could make a strong case for the win.
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Re: Post-Festival Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Quick thought on Giamatti for Sideways:

I recognize that we're looking backwards in time to a different era culturally and structurally for Oscar-voting (we are strongly post-Weinstein) but Paul Giamatti's Best Actor snub for Sideways remains the most egregious snub in that category of my moviegoing life (1995). Leonardo DiCaprio missing out for Titanic remains the most uproar a snub in any category might have received next to The Dark Knight for Best Picture. But Paul Giamatti missing out for Sideways was different. He had a major critic's prize, nominations from the Globes & SAG, he was in a film that was at least modestly successful, and he was in a Best Picture nominee. The only "snubs" that come closest to that level are Richard Gere for Chicago, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed, Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips, and Christian Bale for Ford v. Ferrari. None of them won major critic's prizes. With Gere and DiCaprio, I have to believe the fact that there was some confusion about what category they truly belonged in. With Christian Bale and Tom Hanks, I have to ask would Ford v. Ferrari or Captain Phillips have made a slate of five Best Picture nominees? I don't think so, and their snubs are evidence of such. Giamatti's snub is even more shocking because his competition was the opposite of outstanding.

Just to kill even more time, I look to the other acting categories to see if any other performances had a major critic's prize, nominations from the Globes & SAG, was in a film that was at least modestly successful, and was in a Best Picture nominee and failed to get an Oscar nomination (since 1995). The only other name that comes up is Amy Adams for Arrival and that's a slight stretch to include the National Board of Review as a critics group on part with LAFCA, NYCC, and NSFC. I think she deserves an asterisk by her mention. Either way, it only solidifies in my mind how much Paul Giamatti remains the biggest acting snub of my moviegoing life and the reason why has to be linked to the fact that he was playing such a flawed, ordinary guy in a category opposite J.M. Barrie, Howard Hughes, Ray Charles, and Paul Rusesabagina. Oh, and the most mythic performance of Clint Eastwood's career this century.

Working Giamatti's favor now is he's even more entrenched in the industry than he was 19 years ago and by all accounts it doesn't appear he's playing a flawed, ordinary guy this time. He's playing a flawed special person. A brilliant curmudgeonly professor with a fantastic vocabulary on the road to redemption. Voters like special people. This would appear to be a special person.

So as of now, I like his chances. Another thing working in Giamatti's favor is that Alexander Payne has something of a hot streak to him when it comes to leading men. Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt, George Clooney for The Descendants, and Bruce Dern for Nebraska. I'm not going to do a full tally but that's a pretty strong track record in this lineup. Maybe as good as any director this century. And they're a bit more sympathetic than Giamatti's Miles. So perhaps Sideways was an aberration for Giamatti and Payne.
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